WW17 - A Game of Thrones

[Jkaen]

I think the double rowain was an honest mistake, the rest of lewwyns argument is interesting though

[Sareln]

@ Lewwyn, might be a bit to get a coherent (unbuzzed) thought from me. I was all set to push Rowain today and then the night-kill flipped Rowain as Village. Mystifying as hell to me.

There is, however, another thought stirring in my mind - might as well dump it out and see what you all think. It is Meta though; look at it as picking up the slack that Tasunke has left over this game .

Uberfish said the game would be designed to move quickly, even with large. What's the easiest way to do that? Stacked kills. But 19 is a bit cozy for double-killing factions larger than 2 each. Eg. 2 x 3 scum faction gives 6/19 baddies and a bum rap for the village at 31.5% enemy. Combine that with the fact that we know Novice was a survivor (count him as half a villager) and that would come to a little over 1/3 of the players being non-village aligned; nasty odds.

So Uberfish wants double-kills but there isn't enough space for scum factions big enough to fit both our observations and small enough to be matched & balanced. Enter a bullet-proof serial killer (theStick). However, theStick also had another appellation attached: Lurkicidal - I currently take this to mean that he was responsible for lurker kills, not the 2nd "true" kills that we saw on nights 1 & 2.

But we only saw one kill last night, so how does that figure? Well, perhaps theStick was killing a lurker + a player every night. That's very possible. There's also another possibility though, and that's that there is another serial killer out there. If that's the case, I think what we're looking at is either a traitor/sk overlap kill on Rowain (highly unlikely IMO) or the other SK is bulletproof and the scum tried to kill them last night (assuming not bulletproof traitor): alternatively, there was a successful protection.

How do I make plausible another Serial Killer? TheStick wasn't having fun. Perhaps the stress of hiding got to him, and there's certainly precedent for how that worked out for him when he got lynched day 1 as werewolf, but perhaps it's because he felt that he was just killing time until the end of the game. Living through nights and all he has to do is keep his head down since traitors won't be able to hit him. I think theStick was Uberfish's backup to his SK getting caught out on day 1 and turning his balanced for a high-kill environment on its head. In this thought; the two SK's are Master/Apprentice, but they don't know each other and both of them are bulletproof. Possible, but complex. Razor says it's not likely what we're facing though.

So ends the train of thought.

[zakalwe]

I don't like Zak's play but it does seem slightly more familiar than he has been before.

I dont understand this, how can he be playing more familiar than how he normally plays?

I mean that he seems more familiar in play today, than previously in this game.

@Rowain

Yes it does bother me but right now I'm not sure that I can find someone better than coco to vote for. There's no momentum for going for thestick as coco seems to be the vogue for policy lynching in this game while the others get to enjoy the free pass.

Zak feels like he's playing a generally more different game than usual, but I am never good at judging zak and normally when I suspect him he turns up innocent so that makes me hesitate from voting for him.

Plus with time running out, I can't just fire a vote out on my top suspects and hope people follow me as the current lay of the land proscribes I need to be defensive in my voting.

For the record, my top suspects are:

thestick (much too quiet - hesistant to incriminate himself like last time?)
Tasunke (votes more than he contributes IMO)
At least one of Coco/Azza/Sareln (ranked in terms of likelihood in that order)

And I am uncertain on zak and Mardoc.

The others feel on the whole at least 40% village.

I think at least one of the quiet lurkers will be scum or at least anti-village (if more third party people exist) but its still a bit of a risky guess as to which one it is.

See the bolded line above. Where did that uncertainty about Mardoc come from, all of a sudden?

[Jkaen]

Sareln you certainly have just picked the crazy gauntlet.

Master and apprentice bullet proof serial killers? Really?

Strikes me as you found an opportunity to post 4 or 5 nice sized paragraphs and nudge up yuor post count without saying anything.

My vote doesnt change but it moves from 'lets get Sareln to talk' to 'I suspect Sareln of being scum'

[zakalwe]

Dang it, Mattimeo, why'd you have to look so suspicious?

Sorry...

I'm beginning to feel uneasy on Mardoc and whether his double vote is truly a town ability. Scum wouldn't make sense from a meta perspective, but anti-town third party could especially if he had some sort of self-preservation ability.

I don't like this post at all. What is there about doublevoting that made you think 'oh, he has to be town?' I know that I'm a loyalist, but I don't see anything about my power that would prove that. Particularly in an Uberfish game.

And why is it 'beginning to feel uneasy' - about the power, and not about me? Why not a simple 'Mardoc's voted two villagers in two days, that's suspicious'? Because it's too direct? Because I'm by far not the only one with a bad record?

The rest of the post seems similar, trying to sprinkle some suspicion on a lot of people, indirectly and obliquely. Except of course for Lewwyn. He's literally the only one looking innocent to you, Azza?

Sorry for the spam, guess I'm gettng a bit carried away here. Anyway, two words about the post above: guilty conscience.

[zakalwe]

Sareln you certainly have just picked the crazy gauntlet.

Master and apprentice bullet proof serial killers? Really?

Strikes me as you found an opportunity to post 4 or 5 nice sized paragraphs and nudge up yuor post count without saying anything.

My vote doesnt change but it moves from 'lets get Sareln to talk' to 'I suspect Sareln of being scum'

I agree, well said.

[zakalwe]

Ok, another (the final?) thing I wanted to show you about Mardoc is the way his attitude towards me keeps shifting in a curious way.

I do have a question for you, zak. If Lewwyn's a traitor, why aren't you dead? He was happy to make you the first kill last game.

Zak? I suspect if you can persuade me otherwise, that'll swing the lynch completely. I'm likely to have a chance to change my vote in the next 40 minutes, if my boss stays busy. Care to try?

And here I'd been thinking night 1 was a fluke. Still, at least these are somewhat better results.

Going to start with following zak back onto Coco, I think. Serdoa's case, while brilliantly executed, did have the primary effect of saving Coco.

I'm waffling. I can't see zak as scum, not after his posts and analysis over the past day. But I'm not convinced he's right, just because he's probably innocent.

Holy cow! Zakalwe for President!

Mardoc.

There's a shocker .

So he launches an attack on me in the middle of day 2, but at the end of day 2 he views me as the person to turn to for advice on who to lynch. He is then willing to "follow" me at the start of day 3 (before I've even voted!). Yet, when day 3 draws to an end, he thinks I'm innocent "but that doesn't mean I'm right". Seeing the flip, he attributes it all to me and wants me as president. When I vote for him today his comment is "there's a shocker". I'm not sure what the subtext is supposed to be on that final comment, but it seems like it may have something to do with my judgement being bad.

In short, he seems to trust my judgement when, and only when, he deems it convenient. Scummy.

[Qgqqqqq]

Ive seen lewwyns post, but will reply to Azza first.

Poimts he makes (on me):
1) not voting for big targets: true, I often find myself avoiding wagons, but that is simply b/c i didnt have a read either way (though i was up there in the pin push)
2) you call me out on it and i revenge vote: not seeing it. if you said it before D2 then your documentation is wrong and i cant be bothered trawling thru whole QT.
on d2 however, i vot e before your first post, and you DO NOT MENTION MY NAME ALL DAY nor ever...

[Azza]

That's convenient, because I called you out in the quicktopic. I called you out during day 1

I don't like Qgqqqq's non-voting (post 67). The lynch is our greatest weapon against the mafia. Definitely puts him on my "to watch" list.

and during night 1

I still don't like Qgqqqq's no-voting. It doesn't help the town at all, since it gives the mafia a greater ability to manipulate the final vote count, and there's no pressure placed on anyone to draw out responses. You're definitely in my top 2 suspects at this stage along with Brick.

Then, lo and behold, day 2 you vote for me straight up.

[Qgqqqqq]

... respond to it (my vote=p376 QT)

4) coco no explanation: explain in p266 tldr lesser of evils.

5) yesterday...: you srsly construe everything i do.
blow-by blow:
vote coco cause of no strong reads vote you to express feeling of suspiscion, +frustration with coco case, still find TT innocent so express willingness to change.
go to zak cause i like case (both of them, doesnt mean i like multiscum just means i like each theory individually enough to vote)