WW 18 Siege of the Dragon! (Game Thread)

[zakalwe]

But zak, to be fair, an answer to your question: There is only one player you know is not against you, and thats your teammate. So in general your scum-play will be exactly like your town-play, except for that one player. And that is exactly what we were shown D1. So, there is your answer: Your play makes more sense for scum because you defended valiantly scum the whole day.

I disagree. Like I said earlier, if I were scum, I would focus much more on attacking someone else, and much less on defending my scumbuddy.

It is a difference if I call him innocent or if I just say that I think that you choose an interesting target. As in a target that is telling, for the fact that it is very easy to point to something he did and call it scummy. Doesn't mean he is innocent, but means that I get the feeling that you are deliberately not attacking those which do show scum-signs but could fight back much more than MJW probably will.

I don't view MJW as an easy target. Maybe he was, in the first game or two that he played here, but not anymore. I don't see why you would expect him to not fight back, either. And anyway, there are only 11 players left. I'm innocent, Azza is innocent, so that leaves 9 players out of which it seems that at least 3 must be scum. So I'm not giving anyone a free pass at this point, whether it's because they are too easy a target, or whatever else.

These two passages that I've quoted are contradictory, as well. If I played exactly as I usually do on day 1, not shying away from confrontations with powder kegs like yourself, why would I only be going after soft targets today? Again, you're just trying to make things fit.

[zakalwe]

Right, Ive skimmed the thread. First impressions;

1) No specific wolftells really stand out, with everybody pretty much playing in the style I'd imagine them to.
2)Only slight expception to this is Lewwyn appears to be on the sidelines less than usual, when I've played with him and he's been villager he's tended to lay very low on the first day and then build up a head of steam through the 2nd and 3rd days then get nightkilled. Not necessarily a wolftell, but in this meta he could have a unique role.

I had a more thorough look back through and this post interested me:
Lewwyn post 222:

waterbat Wrote: If he's innocent, I can certainly understand why Serdoa is voting Zak. If he's not village, he's playing up the fact that he's been "wronged" for trying to contribute. Someone mentioned possible dragon/SK role for Serdoa - I can see this as well. A little more upset than normal that he is being suspected.


Who brought up that idea? I don't remember. Serdoa as SK would make sense because he's definitely reacting strange.

Lewwyn wrote:

Just a mild point but it's interesting that Lewwyn kept this in the limelight. Trying to subtly reinforce suspicion.

3) Selrahc's lurker play makes sense if the lurker play was designed to draw me out (I would have actually accepted the challenge, but I couldn't think of a game Id be able to win at :P)

4) The Zak, Serdoa, Azza, Qgqqqq malarky is awash with anger and hasn't wrung through my brain properly yet. However, the main suspects probably come from there.

5) As I remember, Azza hasn't made a single case, or done anything aside from question his attackers. As a lurker lynch he looks the best option on a day with few tells.

Azza

Now to reread and try and wring some further sense.

Just to bring up some new names, I don't like this post by Slowcheetah. I had to look up "malarky" but it's actually not a very flattering word.

ma·lar·key [muh-lahr-kee] Show IPA
noun, Informal.
speech or writing designed to obscure, mislead, or impress; bunkum


First of all, the whole timing and context of the post smells a little of scum positioning for the final hours before the deadline. He only skimmed, but has a whole long list of points and views. Then, he needs to reread, which gives him an excuse to later bring up whatever else might be needed in order to steer things in the right direction. A townie could make the same post, but it still feels a bit more likely to come from a scum player who's been thinking a lot more than he's been posting.

Then, this part:

The Zak, Serdoa, Azza, Qgqqqq malarky is awash with anger and hasn't wrung through my brain properly yet. However, the main suspects probably come from there.

Like I said, not very flattering, and not particularly logical, either. Why would the scum come from here? And why is Azza lumped in there, really? He had a somewhat angry reaction to being targeted for lurking, but I don't really see the link to the "malarky" between me, Serdoa, and Q.

Slowcheetah did finally end up on Q, but I don't think it's inconceivable that this was a bus vote (hoping, of course, that Q would still survive). He did go through a lot of other suspects before landing on Q. (Azza, Mattimeo, Waterbat). So why was he avoiding his stated high-density scum group like that? I realize I have practically the exact same voting pattern towards the end of day 1, except I stayed on Waterbat, but I had been quite explicit about thinking Q was innocent, while Slowcheetah listed him as likely scum.

I also think Slowcheetah could make sense as Ichabod's partner, even if he had his vote briefly on Ichabod earlier. That vote was just for pressure, according to him, and he added exactly nothing to that case before moving off again. And like anybody else, he could be the dragon. So even if the voting record speaks slightly in his favor, I definitely want to hear more from him today.

Addendum - I went back and checked the tally at the time of the above post:

Waterbat(4) - Qgqqqqq Rowain Mattimeo Ichabod
Azza (3) - Zakalwe Lewwyn Bigger
Ichabod(3) - Slowcheetah MJW Uberfish
Qgqqqq(2) - Waterbat Azza
Mattimeo(2) - Pindicator Selrahc
Uberfish(1) - Novice
Zakalwe (1) - Serdoa

So at this point, Slowcheetah moved his vote from Ichabod to Azza, without commenting at all on Ichabod.

[Mattimeo]

First: the claim
Novice claims Azza as safe town
Everyone hurriedly gets their votes off Azza
Taking the claim at face value seems the prevalent opinion, until uberfish points out it *could* be a scum ploy, though unlikely.
Almost immediately, slowcheetah shows up and re-votes Azza (after inflating his post count earlier with several fumbling attempts to get colours correct while moving his vote off Azza).
Then backs off as everyone shows up, saying the claim will probably be tested overnight.

Novice then dying during the day reinforces the idea that scum really wanted a safe claim dead ASAP.

lynch:
Waterbat claimed the presence of an ability (which imples active, since passive can't be claimed) when it was close to deadline. While I'd appreciate knowing what such an ability was, I realise that it's likely to be more useful if scum do not.
Slight town read for now, but the longer without further elaboration on this front, the more I'll be inclined to believe the (partial) claim false.
Late swap from Qgqqqqq to waterbat reflects poorly on MJW, as zakalwe noted.
Other late votes on waterbat: novice, zak. Given the only real alternative (voting Qgqqqqq) would have been completely against everything zak had been arguing that day, I'm not sure much can be made of this on its own.
Late votes on Qgqqqqq: Bigger, slowcheetah, Rowain. Normally I'd be giving fairly major town points for doing so that close to deadline, but given Tasunke's confirmation of multiple scum factions (at least three?), not so much. Does mean they're fairly unlikely to be on Qgqqqqq's team.

Mayor vote implies Azza was the source of the double vote to lynch as well, but no confirmation of this from him that I could find.

night kills:
Every kill processed so far has had a different method of death attached to it
- lynched, assassinated, burnt alive, eaten by wolves, poisoned
Assassinated / poisoned seem the only similar ones - same faction, perhaps?
Would imply that Qgqqqqq's faction was the one that killed novice.

Didn't come up with any really compelling reasons for someone to want pindicator dead.
uberfish had been pushing zakalwe for a while, as a teammate of Qgqqqqq. Yet his death appears to have been caused by the faction that Qgqqqqq was not part of. Looks to be a combination of killing a strong town, and attempting to frame zak, but that can't be used as a clear for zak 'cause factions.

today:
case on MJW seems to be almost entirely based on the late switch from Qgqqqqq to waterbat. Add to that the fact zak (who initially made the case) looked to be under a fair amount of suspicion, in need of a larger target to take pressure off him (whether he's town or scum), and I don't see the need to push it that aggressively. The switch is something to keep in mind for the future, though.
case on zakalwe seems continued from yesterday - the vehemence with which he defended Qgqqqqq, as well as some suspicious phrasing in places. Only revelation I can think of that actually affects the probability of scum is that it's looking likely scum are in pairs - which makes keeping your teammate alive significantly more important than usual.

zak is defintiely the strongest case developed at this point, and chances are I'll end up on him at the end of the day unless something major comes up, but for now I'm not really liking slowcheetah.
His contributions have not seemed especially useful, his only real opinions have been anti-Azza (both before and after novice's claims), and he's just generally giving off a vibe I dislike, while skating through having no-one really pay much attention.

other:
zak's joke was amusing. The exasperated tone of the explanation was probably more amusing
(waterbat's attempt at similar, on the other hand, almost warranted inclusion as a horrific scum slip)

When was the first mentions of there more than just scum + SK factions - got this, just after novice's claim, but haven't checked earlier for similar slip-ups by people still alive.

I actually agree with this. Also remember that there's at least two factions (SK, scum) so scum zak has a good chance of getting crossfired .

[Mattimeo]

...well that's a nice timing for a cross-post :/

will have more of a look back through things that happened before novice's claim later, but for now I have work in ~5 hours and need to actually get some sleep before it.

[Mattimeo]

(and yes, the fact that it was a cross-post by more than an hour is indication that I should *really* be refreshing as I write stuff)

[slowcheetah]

That's a lot of deaths, if the 1-2-2-11 speculation is correct and based on Tasunke's colour scheme. Q was red, Ichabod was white. Then we have a 1-1-1 of scum and serial killers.

Qgqqqq has a partner as does Ichabod and the serial killer is still on the loose cackling maniacally.

So suspects for Qgqqqq's partner, as I see it we can simplify it down to two archetypes.

1. Strong players who are likely to get nightkilled quickly, and thus need Q to survive for a win (this was pointed out by someone Lewwyn/Uberfish? I can't find the post)
   
2. Players who can slip under the radar and can afford to do little to save Q
   

Players (still alive) who fit 1) Zakalwe, Lewwyn, Serdoa, Rowain

The case for Zakalwe has been discussed in detail by a fair few players (Serdoa, Lewwyn). Importantly, Uberfish a strong player and confirmed innocent felt that Zakalwe was the best candidate for the role. To top it off his case against MJW felt very weak, in my opinion MJW; though a good player, falls into archetype 2, thus his late switch would be a bad move on his part when he could potentially slip through even with a dead Q.
His second case of today (which I appear to be crossposting with) is against me. I'm going to address a few points on my syntax following this post but I think his argument seems desperate. Mainly because he's trying to blacken me in every way imaginable rather than making a concise and pointed case.

Note the last two paragraphs:

Slowcheetah did finally end up on Q, but I don't think it's inconceivable that this was a bus vote (hoping, of course, that Q would still survive). He did go through a lot of other suspects before landing on Q. (Azza, Mattimeo, Waterbat). So why was he avoiding his stated high-density scum group like that? I realize I have practically the exact same voting pattern towards the end of day 1, except I stayed on Waterbat, but I had been quite explicit about thinking Q was innocent, while Slowcheetah listed him as likely scum.

I also think Slowcheetah could make sense as Ichabod's partner, even if he had his vote briefly on Ichabod earlier. That vote was just for pressure, according to him, and he added exactly nothing to that case before moving off again. And like anybody else, he could be the dragon. So even if the voting record speaks slightly in his favor, I definitely want to hear more from him today.

Looks like he wants me as both Ichabod's and Q's partner? Deflecting to the max, probably.


Lewwyn

A few people have stated that Lewwyn has been noticeably less aggressive in his pushes then in previous villager games, however to me he's seemed similar, actually slightly nosier on day one than usual, although not making any big waves. Day two he has seemed to be himself, taking up where uberfish left off and pressuring Zak, followed by an attempt to get Mattimeo to say something. He wasn't particularly involved with Q, voting him early, although this could have been an attempt to remain internally consistent.

I like Serdoa's post though it does let Azza off the hook a bit too easily.

(December 10th, 2012 01:47)Serdoa Wrote: To summarize, Qgqqqqq appears imo suspicious for:

- stating he makes a useless early-game vote when it clearly isn't
- inquiring about wb's voting behaviour but completely ignoring the much more suspicious voting behaviour of Selrahc


I stated before that I found the bit about stating the early game vote as useless to be suspicious. But then again I was dead set against Qgq last game too because I thought his behavior was suspicious as hell and I was really wrong... But that didn't really stop me last game. smokeQgqqqqq

Oh and Serdoa, your part about me actually answers your own question. I wasn't retroactively explaining my vote. I was noting things I thought were suspicious that were fallout of said vote.

But overall I'm not reading him as Q's partner, I'd actually see him as a candidate for serial killer.

I was just going back through the old WW SS for fun and realized that wolves have won 9 games and village has won 8... The recent trend towards wolf wins is overwhelming. I blame myself for last game. frown

A small post, no big accusations or cases that are usually analysed to determine guilt, however, it's definitely a small bit of positive reinforcement that Lewwyn is a villager. A very small trick perhaps, but with someone as good as this game as Lewwyn. It's plausible.

Serdoa

If that anger was faked then that's a very, very good job by the two of them.


Rowain

Rowain feels like he usually does (and he's been village when I've played with him) asking questions and demanding reasoning from lurkers. I actually had a post typed up earlier about how he hadn't jumped on anybody or made any cases. But then I looked back

Thanks for answering Ichabod but

(December 10th, 2012 05:16)Ichabod Wrote: My Pindicator vote was based on the fact that I didn't like his Zakalwe vote for mayor. The "I can read him well" justification just don't cut to me, since then you should vote for yourself.

strikes me odd as that reasoning was used by some in WW16 without triggering your suspicio-meter

and that part

(December 10th, 2012 05:16)Ichabod Wrote: Besides, I think it's better to vote for someone that hunts wolves well (zak is good at it, but that was not the reason Pindicator gave). And, as pretentious as it may sound, I thought Pindicator was going to vote for me as mayor (not only him, but he was one of the people I thought would vote for me), since I played good villager games last two games.

sounds very un-Ichabod to me.

waterbat Wrote: Oh - and as to the idea that I was setting up Serdoa for a fall - of course if qgqqqq flips innocent, I'm going to put some blame on his head. Also on the other easy q voters. The key to that is making q flip something. Not saying he HAS to be todays lynch, but we do lose some info if we get dragged in another direction.


That sounds odd on all parts.

(December 10th, 2012 15:49)waterbat Wrote: Oh - and as to the idea that I was setting up Serdoa for a fall - of course if qgqqqq flips innocent, I'm going to put some blame on his head.

So you vote with Serdoa but shove off the blame on him in case Qg is innocent? What about your own responsibility?

(December 10th, 2012 15:49)waterbat Wrote: Also on the other easy q voters.

Again all others are to blame but not you?

(December 10th, 2012 15:49)waterbat Wrote: The key to that is making q flip something. Not saying he HAS to be todays lynch, but we do lose some info if we get dragged in another direction.

Hey lets rush to lynch Qg and don't look anywhere else. No need for another candidate to really learn abit. really. What are you trying here WB?
waterbat

Rowain definitely feels village to me.

I'll keep writing but split up the posts, this is a wall of text as it is.

[slowcheetah]

Ok, lets look at archetype 2 for Q's partner

The Laying-Lows

Lets focus on those who didn't vote to lynch Q for a start.

Lynch Tally

Qgqqqq (8)* – Waterbat, Azza, Serdoa, uberfish Bogger Slowcheetah rowain
Waterbat(6) mattimeo, Ichabod, qqqqq Nocive Zakelroy MJW
Mattimeo (1) - Selrahc,
Uberfish (1) - pindicator
Azza (1) – Lewwyn

Mattimeo, MJW, Selrahc are the only ones still alive/ in this category.

Mattimeo- Played as a lurker with an eye his own defense, however this is apparently how he always plays. Voted Q early, and was disparaged for it, then he went defensive and leapt out of the fray.

And now I get the fun choice of sticking with my random vote 'cause negligible evidence to suspect alternate targets has surfaced (suspicious, because I'm holding with a vote that was initially completely random, but doubted as such), and switching (suspicious, because I'm caving in to pressure suspecting my random vote was suspicious, and my reasoning for whoever I vote for won't be all that solid due to my general lack of insight on Day 1).

Screw it, sticking on Qgqqqqq 'cause the case Serdoa is building looks interesting.

zakalwe Wrote: Mattimeo may be trying to skate off to thicker ice here.

Of course I am. What possible benefit could there be for me in sitting out on fragile ice where I'm likely to be lynched, regardless of my alignment?

At the time, he looked scummy, but it doesn't look like he was aware of Q's scumminess. Therefore more likely to be Ichabod's partner (who he notably hasn't mentioned once). However, he has posted a reasonable (but wrong) case against me, and the case for him being Ichabod's partner is certainly weaker than Zakalwe being Q's.

MJW

Switched to waterbat right before the deadline, I just don't see MJW making that silly of an error.

Selrahc

Reads as a bit of a mystery, he hit the selfdestruct button on his attempt to entrap me earlier in the game, and has stated (which nobody denied) that he isn't very good on day one.

He feels town to me, but I'm interested as to why he voted MJW today??

Overall

I'd have Zakalwe as Q's partner as the most likely scum and best lynch
I also have a hunch that Lewwyn is the serial killer, but I don't have much to go on.
Ichabod's partner, no real clue yet.
Rowain feels town to me, as does Serdoa

I need to take a closer look at Bigger, Azza and Waterbat, but I also need to refute Zak and Matti's argument and have real life work to do so that may or may not happen.

[slowcheetah]

Right, Ive skimmed the thread. First impressions;

1) No specific wolftells really stand out, with everybody pretty much playing in the style I'd imagine them to.
2)Only slight expception to this is Lewwyn appears to be on the sidelines less than usual, when I've played with him and he's been villager he's tended to lay very low on the first day and then build up a head of steam through the 2nd and 3rd days then get nightkilled. Not necessarily a wolftell, but in this meta he could have a unique role.

I had a more thorough look back through and this post interested me:
Lewwyn post 222:

waterbat Wrote: If he's innocent, I can certainly understand why Serdoa is voting Zak. If he's not village, he's playing up the fact that he's been "wronged" for trying to contribute. Someone mentioned possible dragon/SK role for Serdoa - I can see this as well. A little more upset than normal that he is being suspected.


Who brought up that idea? I don't remember. Serdoa as SK would make sense because he's definitely reacting strange.

Lewwyn wrote:

Just a mild point but it's interesting that Lewwyn kept this in the limelight. Trying to subtly reinforce suspicion.

3) Selrahc's lurker play makes sense if the lurker play was designed to draw me out (I would have actually accepted the challenge, but I couldn't think of a game Id be able to win at :P)

4) The Zak, Serdoa, Azza, Qgqqqq malarky is awash with anger and hasn't wrung through my brain properly yet. However, the main suspects probably come from there.

5) As I remember, Azza hasn't made a single case, or done anything aside from question his attackers. As a lurker lynch he looks the best option on a day with few tells.

Azza

Now to reread and try and wring some further sense.

Just to bring up some new names, I don't like this post by Slowcheetah. I had to look up "malarky" but it's actually not a very flattering word.

ma·lar·key [muh-lahr-kee] Show IPA
noun, Informal.
speech or writing designed to obscure, mislead, or impress; bunkum


First of all, the whole timing and context of the post smells a little of scum positioning for the final hours before the deadline. He only skimmed, but has a whole long list of points and views. Then, he needs to reread, which gives him an excuse to later bring up whatever else might be needed in order to steer things in the right direction. A townie could make the same post, but it still feels a bit more likely to come from a scum player who's been thinking a lot more than he's been posting.

I did skim, but mainly the parts between you, serdoa and Qgqqq. I got the gist of what was going on but it seemed that most of it was just personal anger between Serdoa and Qgqqq that wasn't leading anywhere, and I honestly wasn't that interested. However, you taking an interest meant that a lot of the game was revolving around that specific argument, consequently, the general feeling I got from the thread as a whole was that the main suspects (not necessarily guilty suspects) came from there.

Then, this part:

The Zak, Serdoa, Azza, Qgqqqq malarky is awash with anger and hasn't wrung through my brain properly yet. However, the main suspects probably come from there.

Like I said, not very flattering, and not particularly logical, either. Why would the scum come from here? And why is Azza lumped in there, really? He had a somewhat angry reaction to being targeted for lurking, but I don't really see the link to the "malarky" between me, Serdoa, and Q.

Scum didn't have to come from there, but the main voting patterns from the thread did. I couldn't see any new tells so I'm going to have to decide who to trust of the main players in the thread. Azza was linked in, because I was cutting corners with language and the thread felt like it was starting to boil down to Azza against Q. With Serdoa pushing Q and you trying to help him out

Slowcheetah did finally end up on Q, but I don't think it's inconceivable that this was a bus vote (hoping, of course, that Q would still survive). He did go through a lot of other suspects before landing on Q. (Azza, Mattimeo, Waterbat). So why was he avoiding his stated high-density scum group like that? I realize I have practically the exact same voting pattern towards the end of day 1, except I stayed on Waterbat, but I had been quite explicit about thinking Q was innocent, while Slowcheetah listed him as likely scum.

I went to waterbat from Azza because I thought it was about to be the deadline and didn't want Azza to get lynched after Novice's reveal. Waterbat was the closest candidate in votes at that time.

I then went back to Azza because the idea of Novice being possessed worried me, and I wasn't sold on the waterbat case, so a lynch to get a confirmed villager (who could be protected) seemed a good idea.

I preferred Mattimeo to waterbat because he was a better lurker lynch, as Azza had appeared to be before Novice's claim.

Then I went back to Q, because I preferred him to waterbat although only slightly.

This is what I posted in the thread that day, I completely agree with the sentiment of what Serdoa wrote.

Serdoa Wrote: Anyhow, not to happy with waterbat, but mostly because I have not seen all that much convincing about him. It feels more like taking someone who hasn't contributed too much because there is not enough time to actually think about the others.


I very much agree with this, looking back through his posts nothing looks particularly bad. Waterbat's posts look rushed, but he has explicitly stated he's both been busy and ill, so that's understandable. The only other candidate I can see would be Mattimeo at this point, as a policy lynch on lurking and only looking out for your own skin.

I also think Slowcheetah could make sense as Ichabod's partner, even if he had his vote briefly on Ichabod earlier. That vote was just for pressure, according to him, and he added exactly nothing to that case before moving off again. And like anybody else, he could be the dragon. So even if the voting record speaks slightly in his favor, I definitely want to hear more from him today.

It was early on day one, isn't voting for pressure how things shake loose? Nothing looked tremendously ominous to me (ichabod had me fooled) so I switched votes.

[slowcheetah]

Looking through Mattimeo's post I believe I've answered his arguments at the same time as Zaks. Also for tasunke's benefit after writing those long posts.

Zakalwe

[Tasunke]

Official Lynch Tally

MJW(3) Zakalwe, Selrahc, Azza
Zakalwe(2) Serdoa, Slowcheetah
Mattimeo(1) Lewwyn
Slowcheetah(1) Mattimeo