WW 18 Siege of the Dragon! (Game Thread)

[Serdoa]

Oh, one other point I'd like to post for the villagers: This game is much to quiet right now. We are through the first 24 hours of D2 nearly, and the posting situation is rather bad. From 11 players only 7 voted. Bigger I think didn't even post yet. Thats really not what we should do. Looking at my list, most of the players left I don't expect too much content tbh, but especially in that situation it is necessary that you get more vocal. We already have some stronger players deciding to not really add anything meaningful or add anything at all. That is kinda telling already, but it would be much easier if the villagers would talk. That would make the quiet of the rest much more obvious AND would help put some into the probably innocent camp, making the hunt more manageable.

And yes, I know that I haven't presented all that many cases till now. Thats partly of course because I still have the case on zak (no, you are not suddenly innocent for me zak, but I really do intend to give you a chance to hunt scum, as you are at least showing more interest than the other players that I would expect elaborate cases from). And partly because I'd like not to shout down everything. There are at least 2-3 more cases to be made imo (that I can see), apart from zak and MJW. Not all of them can be scum of course, but also I don't believe I am the only one seeing it. Just pick a name, read through his posts via waterbats tracker and post your take on it. Please.

[Serdoa]

Ok. I'll let you elaborate when you feel the time is right, then. But can you now tell me what the obvious reason for MJW's late vote switch was?

Thats one of the points that made me scratch my head when I read MJWs post. I was certain, from how he posted at that time, that he simply had funny trying to get them on equal votes, to have it tied via the mayor. I mean, look at those posts. He started on Q, switched because of a bad count by Tasunke, got angry on Tasunke for the bad count (and switched back to Q) and at the end switched to waterbat with the words

"What the hell. waterbat"

Honestly, that all reads for me like typical MJW, just having fun and screwing around (and somehow still setting something up to get more information out of all the chaos ensuing). But his explanation now for his switch. It reads for me like nothing MJW would do. More like something very carefully thought-out. Careful thoughts and MJW? Thats like climbing and pig, it just doesn't go together (sorry MJW, you are really great, but you are also nuts ).

[waterbat]

Yes MJW, I didn't realize it at first, but yes my role also seems to be deliberately designed to confuse a scanner or discourage me from revealing it. Especially given game events/revelations so far.

I haven't used my vote yet. I won't until I have computer access again. Ive had time to rethink my snap judgement of zak + MJW + Matt and want to do a full re-read. We could easily be looking at 5-6 more deaths by morning day 3. Need to make sure we are accurate with the one we can control.

[slowcheetah]

I'm a villager demon. I have 2 night actions that I can take BOTH on each night with infinte charges. They are to jail someone and the other one is to redirect a kill targeting me to someone else. I cannot jail myself and if I redirect to somone who tryed to kill me I die anyway.

Why the hell would you announce the second half of that power?

PS
Zak I know I owe you a response, just have to play a PBEM turn and then I'll get to it.

[slowcheetah]

Slowcheetah, I general I like much of your recent couple of posts, particularly the way you're actually evaluating systematically who Q's partners might be instead of jumping straight to how it must be me.

Thank you

I think you're being unfair in your rebuttal, though, when you're saying that I'm "trying to blacken you in every way imaginable rather than making a concise and pointed case". I think my argument was much more balanced than that. For example, I said that the voting record speaks slightly in your favor. Also, you say my case against MJW is very weak, while my case against you is desperate. Seems like you're not leaving much room for a middle ground there. Anyway, to respond to that, I don't think I've even made a case against MJW. I just asked him a question. Maybe I'll try to build a proper case later, but I really just wanted to hear his answer and thoughts in general, first. I didn't expect him to be completely absent for more than 24 hours.

I may have used some inappropriately emotive language there, however, my overall point was that you seemed to be trying to have it both ways i.e. I'm Q's partner and Ichabod's rather than working through which one was more consistent, this would be 'blackening me every which way'. It seemed scummy because it was pointing an unecessary amount of fingers at me to make the case.

Case against MJW was overstating it, and perhaps a bit of confirmation bias had kicked in. From a villager perspective a vote to apply pressure at the beginning of the day makes sense. However, with the good cases forming for you as Q's partner, it does look like an act of desperation, and picking on the guy who switched on the wrong side of a frenetic days end.

I don't know if I sound desperate; maybe I do. Serdoa also says I'm being a survivalist, so maybe there is something there. The thing is - without going into further detail, lynching me really would be very bad for the town. It's hard to completely shake that thought from my mind and just play "regularly", whatever that means. So maybe I'm coming off as more defensive than normally, without really meaning to or noticing it myself.

I do think you are coming off as more desperate than normal. Honestly though in this game I think everybody has a role like that. Mine isn't exactly weak.

"It was early on day one, isn't voting for pressure how things shake loose? Nothing looked tremendously ominous to me (ichabod had me fooled) so I switched votes."

What happened when you voted for Ichabod was that Rowain first said something sounded un-Ichabod, you asked him about that, he responded, and then you said: "Having thought about it, I can see what you mean. Lets add some more pressure."

Then, a while later, just as Ichabod had received a third vote and was becoming a viable lynch option, you made a post with thoughts on lots of other players, and switched off Ichabod, without saying *anything* about him, at all. So yeah, maybe what you're saying is the simple truth, but it's a bit odd, to me. Yes, you voted for Ichabod, but you could hardly have applied any less pressure on him than what you did. That said, I'm not sure a scum pair would even want to vote for each other at all. In a single-faction game, where the scum basically control the lynch, distancing is common. Probably not so much, if there are just two players per scum faction.

Yeah, I didn't really do a very good job there, but I wasn't around much and there didn't seem to be much momentum in the case. So I switched to Azza because he seemed the best lynch on what was a pretty confusing day one.

"Looks like he wants me as both Ichabod's and Q's partner? Deflecting to the max, probably."
I was outlining the various possibilities. Out of the various scenarios, the one where you're scum with Q seems the least likely. "Deflecting to the max" is again unfair, IMO.

That probably was unfairly emotive, although I still think it's a move consistent with deflecting blame.
[/quote]

[MJW (ya that one)]

1. I fully roleclaimed to get the village as much information as possible. Becuase I gonning to get lyched anyway there is no disadvatange.
2. Serdoa, I usually can get a read on someone. Then I vote for him. However, this metagame mess up my usual thoughts and tactis. Forcing me to use logic and reason... Well "normal" logic.

This really is it for today.

[slowcheetah]

1. I fully roleclaimed to get the village as much information as possible. Becuase I gonning to get lyched anyway there is no disadvatange.

You were in no way the first candidate to get lynched when you first posted; Zakalwe was quite far ahead of you and the case against him is currently stronger. Additionally, the village doesn't even gain from knowing you are a redirector. Jailer, yes. But you haven't successfully redirected any kills so there isn't any knowledge locked away from the village if you keep silent.

[/quote]

Question for others, I've never seen a scum MJW, would he try a gambit as unbelievably brazen as this?

[waterbat]

Bigger

Please let us know what you think of game events so far.

[Selrahc]

Bigger

I'm a little perturbed by the MJW situation. I don't trust him, and his role sounds like it belongs on team werewolf. The way he's revealed what sounds like some really powerful abilities when under a bit of pressure, and probably revealed a little too much... I am not a fan. But MJW isn't great under pressure. Perhaps he does just have this role, and cracked.


At the moment I'd prefer to think about it a little more, and try and get everyone involved. Bigger needs to get back in the game. He's our mayor, and that carries a responsibility to be an active part of the village. One he has failed to live up to.

[slowcheetah]

So something about Lewwyns been twinging at me and I was looking through is posts. Unfortunately, there isn't much there because it's entirely possible for scum to hunt scum in this game and lewwyn isn't going to make any huge mistakes.

Voting record-
Day 1
Azza->Q->Mattimeo->Azza(went to bed so he was on him at lynchtime)

Day 2

Zakalwe->Mattimeo

Lewwyn went through pretty much the same cycle as everyone else day one (although he never really considered waterbat, saying he felt he was innocent). He was scumhunting, asking questions and was perhaps more talkative day one than I remember him being. Interestingly enough Lewwyn's only voted for quieter or less well listened to players, excepting Zak. However, he only voted for Zak after uberfish handed him a pretty cast iron case, leaving Zakalwe the most likely to be lynched. He's since returned to a lurker in Mattimeo. All of his cases have good points, but they would with a player of Lewwyns calibre regardless of his alignment. What I find most curious is Lewwyns dropping of Zak's case, in my experience, having been hunted by Lewwyn in two games as a wolf, he's rather relentless.

There are also a few quotes I found interesting:

Early meta speculation on arsonists:

I know its meta, but we're in Tasunke's world now so I can't help myself. Anyway the way the arsonist reads is that he tags and then people blow up when he triggers it. It sounds a lot like a serial killer and if the dragon is a serial killer then that sorta makes sense. But in terms of being a Dragon, I simply can't see the SK acting that way. A dragon is just going to burninate. So I guess my question is whether Tasunke also put his beloved arsonist into the game in addition to a dragon.

An arsonists presence wouldn't actually be relevant to a villager, he's just be more scum we're looking to take down. However, if you are rival scum then avoiding pissing off the wrong people is very important. He may have dropped an early hint to search for a reaction. Waterbat was the one who replied, and Lewwyn seems to have trodden carefully around him since.

waterbat Wrote: If he's innocent, I can certainly understand why Serdoa is voting Zak. If he's not village, he's playing up the fact that he's been "wronged" for trying to contribute. Someone mentioned possible dragon/SK role for Serdoa - I can see this as well. A little more upset than normal that he is being suspected.


Who brought up that idea? I don't remember. Serdoa as SK would make sense because he's definitely reacting strange.

I've mentioned this before, but restating this is an interesting and unneeded move. The repetition could well be a move designed to manipulate people to thinking of Serdoa as a likely serial killer. Thus deflecting attention away.

I was just going back through the old WW SS for fun and realized that wolves have won 9 games and village has won 8... The recent trend towards wolf wins is overwhelming. I blame myself for last game. frown

Very similar thing, however a subtle suggestion that Lewwyn is village.

That's all I could find, it's admittedly thin, but I don't think Lewwyn's going to leave a thick trail without any pressure.

Lewwyn