WW 18 Siege of the Dragon! (Game Thread)

[Rowain]

also with the accelerated rate of deaths, if i should stumble upon another poison-tipped arrow, I would feel compelled to go out for a bit of hunting again today. Thoughts? (villagers only please)

So if you are innocent then we had lynch + kill + 3 nightkills yesterday. + lynch + kill (yours) + ? today. If we don't wipe out a scum-faction today the game is most likely over at the next day.
So if you have another arrow I fear holding it back would mean that you won't be able to use it. Not to mention that with your reveal you do have a good chance to die before tomorrow anyway.

[Lewwyn]

Well. If Zak is deadman walking, Mattimeo.

Waterbat, do whatever you feel is best.

[Rowain]

I think it depends on how sure you are on our sumfinding. If both current targets(zak+Matt) turn up as scum youcan safely wait another day.

So in hope we get today right I think it is better you save it.

[Rowain]

@slowcheetah:

You did propose Lewwyn today and when you switched to zak you made sure we don't forget him. Is Mattimeo more likely scum to you than Lewwyn?

And to add just OOI what your thoughts about Selrahc and Bigger?

[Serdoa]

Reason: To appear villager if questioned. A villager that tried to save our only confirmed villager. I think that alone is a good enough reason - that alone was reason for me to jail zak last game. And @Azza we had much better targets to jail last game. Yes, we didn't know zaks role, true, but we did know latest by D2 that Lewwyn was Vigilante. We still jailed zak, because I requested us doing it due to me not being sure how to explain that I jailed Lewwyn if asked, his play was to atrocious to actually protect him.

I'd suggest try to not think so much in terms of "how is this power used the most efficient". If you do that, you think like a villager. But scum won't think so - and if they do, they'll deliver themselves sooner than later.

Would you have jailed zak if he had been a confirmed villager or wouldn't you rather have tried to kill him?
I really don't see a reason to lynch MJW without a surefire prove that he is scum.
Even if he were scum (and I don't see that possible) MJW will get killed by one of the other factions.

I would have jailed him. Heck, a zakalwe which I can get on my side is great - I can still kill him later on. Or even hope to get him mislynched down the line, after I helped him kill some innocents.

And I really don't see a reason not to lynch MJW, because you have no reason to believe him innocent. I agree that he might not be target no.1 for today (haven't made up my mind), but that doesn't mean there is any reason to believe he is a villager. Of course we will disagree on that, so no sense to discuss it, going in circles.

@waterbat

Tbh, I am a bad vig (as we all know) but I would shoot Bigger, because he clearly has not done anything so far and with the speed this game is going, he should actually be our lurker lynch today. Especially as he is the one having lectured the villagers the most in past games about not lynching the lurkers. I don't trust him that he just plays differently - and if he does, than it is just to survive, not to help the village win.

[slowcheetah]

@slowcheetah:

You did propose Lewwyn today and when you switched to zak you made sure we don't forget him. Is Mattimeo more likely scum to you than Lewwyn?

And to add just OOI what your thoughts about Selrahc and Bigger?

Currently, yes. My case for Lewwyn is mainly based on gut feel and regardless of his alignment Lewwyn has been scumhunting, whereas Mattimeo has actually been acting scummy and hasn't done as much. I may revisit Lewwyn at the beginning of day three depending on how things shake out, but currently I don't think it's worth pressuring him.

Selrahc and Bigger honestly haven't done very much. They feel town but have thus far pretty much slipped under my radar. I'll revisit them in a couple of hours. Need to do some revision before then

[waterbat]

@Serdoa - I think Bigger's presenting the biggest dragon profile so far - lurk, stay out of the fray - survive until the end. There have been a few mentions of the dragon (myself, lewwyn, MJW). but other than those we don't have much to go off of. I tried again on the Ichabod trail to find some kind of dragon connection there, but it was fruitless. Tonight we will assumingly will get some more information.

If I find another arrow and shoot Bigger though - it would be an attempt to catch the dragon.

I also think we should lynch MJW Here's why: I'm hedging again. THe probability that MJW is QgQQQ's partner is much higher if I happen to be wrong on zak. So i think its likely the village gets a positive result or ideally 2 positive results

[zakalwe]

Alright. Some new information to digest. At least I no longer have to worry about defending. At this point I would share all the details of my role, to maximize information, but of course the silly rules forbid me from doing that. So let's just say that if I wasn't already poisoned, the irony of being shot during the day would be killing me.

I think there's a decent chance that Waterbat is Q's buddy, and this is his endgame gambit. (This game practically started in the endgame, it seems.) But we will know more once the day ends. If two people are killed at the end of day (in addition to the lynch), Waterbat will look legit. Otherwise, I would heavily suspect that he killed Novice, too, and the kill is not in fact delayed by a whole day like he claims. And maybe Q poisoned Pindicator. (By the way, who did Pindicator suspect on day 1? Since he died by poisoning, I think it's likely that the decision to kill him was made then, and not during the night. Something to explore if we don't think Q was responsible for it.)

Counterbalancing this is the fact that Tasunke probably wouldn't feel his setup was complete without a day-time vig. It's clearly not enough to have three scum factions - the village must be able to kill, too.

Anyway, since more information will be forthcoming on this, I don't favor a Waterbat lynch today. If you're legit, Waterbat, I'm thinking you should probably just shoot again, albeit preferably with better accuracy this time. Chances are, your kill will double up with a scum kill, anyway. It's a crapshoot, but I really don't think it hurts to inject at least one honest intention into the kill fest. Any kind of endgame analysis is futile, I feel, and it's not really my strong suit, anyway. But my gut says just go for it.

The case against Mattimeo keeps improving since nobody else has claimed to have a complete absence of active abilities. So I feel reasonably good about that. MJW could also be on a scum gambit, I think. I keep coming back to how his claim looks designed to ward off night kills. So maybe Mattimeo is Ichabod's partner, and either Waterbat or MJW is Q's partner. I'm afraid I wouldn't rule out anyone as the dragon.

Maybe I'll chime in a bit more later, or maybe I'll just take the night off and leave you all to fester. My vote stays on Mattimeo, for now.

[zakalwe]

You're not getting two positive results, Waterbat. So who do you feel is most likely scum out of Mattimeo and MJW? I'm open-minded.

[zakalwe]

Selrahc and Bigger honestly haven't done very much. They feel town but have thus far pretty much slipped under my radar.

I feel the same way. Those two feel innocent but have actually contributed extremely little. I'm severely unimpressed by Bigger's contribution today, in particular. Maybe he was just lazy but he did nothing to consider that he might be wrong about me, and never even bothered to rephrase the case against me in his own words.

Rowain also feels innocent, perhaps too much so. Why isn't he embroiled in any quarrels by now? His voting record is good, both with respect to Ichabod and Q's factions. So if he's scum he must be the dragon. But yeah, he feels innocent.

You also feel innocent, because we've seemed to have the same gut feelings now on several occasions.

And Serdoa feels innocent, at any rate he's certainly not Q's partner. He could be playing a very strong scum game, but yeah.

That's as far as I dare go in terms of innocent leans, and none of those leans are very strong. Please don't take any of this as input to a flawed process of elimination, though. Not that we have time for anything like that, anyway.