WW 18 Siege of the Dragon! (Game Thread)

[Rowain]

Rowain, Tasunke clearly stated that we have 3 scum-factions. And what color they would be shown in. So no, there is not a 4th scum-faction running around.

I think we have a misunderstanding. I meant a third Wolf and not a new scum-faction. (Ichabod white Bigger red). The Hunters area bit a mistery: (Arsonist, Ronin)

[waterbat]

I'm going to miss deadline (getting a tree) but I expect to be alive given Serdoa put me forth as the dragon. Also likely he'll die as a frame job.

Unless of course the great martyr sloecat saves us all.

[Serdoa]

Ah, yeah, that is of course the case. We do have pretty certainly a 1-3-3-9 setup. Because if we look at the lynch-writeup, we can see that Bigger was assassinated AFTER Lewwyn died. So we have to assume that there is still a hunter left. And if we have 3 hunters (and they racked up 4 kills already...) then it is also to assume that we have a 3rd wolf. Makes it basically unwinnable for the village - thanks Tasunke. But at least, I want another faction than us villagers going down first. So, I thought about this since today in the morning when I realised that this setup is most likely. I don't see us villagers winning, but we can decide at least which two factions can get a draw.

And now Rowain, after I thought about that and the signs speaking for it, you hint at a 3rd wolf. So I assume you are either our Dragon or our last Hunter? Not our last wolf with that hint, I'm pretty certain and not a villager as well. Azza and Mattimeo are Masons and I know that I am a villager, so the remaining 3 players (assuming slowcheetah indeed died this night) must all be scum. So, what is it for you? I assume Hunter, right? Waterbat was hit by so many votes D1 without anyone speaking up for him, that I assume he is the Dragon. The wolves didn't care who gets lynched and looking back it seems you decided in the last minute to bus Q as he was a lost cause. Am I right?

Edit: And I see waterbats last post, yeah, that makes sense. You have sent it the order to kill me and try to paint it already as a frame job now. Just saying, for next game, make that AFTER it happens, not before. That is too much foreshadowing to be believable imo.

[Tasunke]

DEADLINE

[Tasunke]

Slowcheetah the Village Martyr died Heroically

Write up to come later.

perhaps. (pretty busy this weekend)

[Mattimeo]

Re: 1-3-3-9
Why have the hunters been getting both a day and a night kill every day, then?

And I don't see anywhere that Tasunke specified there are only three anti-town factions.

-> Hunters will be in Orange and Werewolves will be in silver. The Dragon will show up in Red.

Methinks Serdoa is rather too insistent about working the existance of the Obsidian Dagger user into existing factions, when its modus operandi really doesn't seem to fit at all. The attack on waterbat for being said dagger killer, when waterbat's kill went through exactly as claimed, and did not match either of the dagger kills (even occured at the same time as one) just reinforces for me that Serdoa is probably the dagger wielder, trying to throw a smoke field down around his existence.


Would have actually been preferable to have kills go through last night. At least then, we'd know how many there were, which would tell us if there were any wolves or hunters left. I'd be willing to bet there would only have been a dragon kill. As crazy as this setup is, even Tasunke has to know that 1-3-3-9 is pretty much impossible for town, even with perfect lynching.

[waterbat]

@serdoa.
I can't kill at night and also I thought we had decided on 6-1. Being the only one mentioned at night, it made sense that I'd be alive even without slowcheetah's power. 4-1-1-1 is a different matter and slowcheetah's service may have been more helpful than it seemed at 6-1.

So now if you guys (Serdoa and Rowain) assume it's 3-1-1-1 with slowcheetah gone AND you both put Mattimeo and Azza as village, that means you both are not being honest. But Serdoa makes a good case for Rowain as the remaining hunter.

It also puts selrahc in a place I didn't have him.

I dont think we have to be at 3-1-1-1 right now. I'm expecting the earth elemental to remain unclaimed until his death or game ends. That leaves at least 4. I think mjw's role was a mirror to mine - wolf sounding name / wolf sounding abilities. I have hunter sounding name and huntering abilities.

I think reasonable thing to go after most likely to be dragon, then win?!


Xpost with Mattimeo. Yes 4-1-1 is reasonable. As Rowain intimated: a day SK to compliment the dragon. As I said above about MJW, another mirror.

[Azza]

Selrahc I'd love to hear your thoughts.

[Rowain]

Because if we look at the lynch-writeup, we can see that Bigger was assassinated AFTER Lewwyn died.

Thats a bit far fetched. If we do continue that then I want to point out that in the writeup Lewwyn killed MJW first and Bigger singlehandedly killed Lewwyn(vig-like) . I do agree with Matt that you try too hard to push the dagger to a scum-party.

@Mattimeo: If there are more than the dragon left and SC does not sacrifice himself the game would be lost already.

For now: Azza as Mayor and Selrahc as Dragon.
reasons: For azza don't need explaining.
For Selrahc: His wobbling posts around the Lewwyn-lynch and for this:

I was bluffing to see if Rowain would reveal anything if he thought he was dead. Hopefully in the tune of getting angry, revealing he was scum and calling the game ridiculous.

Hoping to get a mislynch out of me.

[Serdoa]

Re: 1-3-3-9
Why have the hunters been getting both a day and a night kill every day, then?

And I don't see anywhere that Tasunke specified there are only three anti-town factions.

-> Hunters will be in Orange and Werewolves will be in silver. The Dragon will show up in Red.

Methinks Serdoa is rather too insistent about working the existance of the Obsidian Dagger user into existing factions, when its modus operandi really doesn't seem to fit at all. The attack on waterbat for being said dagger killer, when waterbat's kill went through exactly as claimed, and did not match either of the dagger kills (even occured at the same time as one) just reinforces for me that Serdoa is probably the dagger wielder, trying to throw a smoke field down around his existence.

Would have actually been preferable to have kills go through last night. At least then, we'd know how many there were, which would tell us if there were any wolves or hunters left. I'd be willing to bet there would only have been a dragon kill. As crazy as this setup is, even Tasunke has to know that 1-3-3-9 is pretty much impossible for town, even with perfect lynching.

Mattimeo, below you find part of a post I had pre-written yesterday but decided not to post yet. I had hoped not to need it right now already (and not to prove my words to you) but there it goes:

-----------------------------

I am not sure that we only have the dragon remaining. Lets look at a table I made myself in order to provide me an overview of whats going on:



I have colored the first part as per alignment and the second part (after the Death Time column) by (suspected) killer. As you can see I assume that the Hunters have killed 4 other players. Part of the reason is this post by Mattimeo

night kills:
Every kill processed so far has had a different method of death attached to it
- lynched, assassinated, burnt alive, eaten by wolves, poisoned
Assassinated / poisoned seem the only similar ones - same faction, perhaps?
Would imply that Qgqqqqq's faction was the one that killed novice.

which I would agree with. The other part is this post by Tasunke

3 scum alignments.

Dragon(sk), Hunters, and Werewolves.

Orange is for Hunters. (Lita the Witch was just orange in the opening story to signify not town)

which clearly states that we have 3 scum alignments. So that indicates for me that we do not have a second SK running around. And as waterbat claims village vig but not the kills we would need to have another village vig, which I do not believe. Reason is that two village vigs which both kill at day + pindicator who certainly was at least a village vigilante himself (see Tasunkes story-part:

Meanwhile, Pindicator, the Seeker of Truth, was sipping on tea in his library. He was befuddled, he went after to kill someone, but they had dissapeared in a puff of Shadowy Smoke.

) is just not feasible imo. I'm actually not even believing waterbat, exactly because of us having pindicator as vigilante already. So, that means those kills have to be attributed to the Hunters I believe. Now, why is that important? Well, because reading Tasunkes write-up, Bigger was assassinated AFTER Lewwyn had died. So at least another Hunter seems to run around as well.

That alone would be bad enough I think, but if the Hunters had 3 members AND could kill Day and Night, than I think it is save to assume that the wolves were 3 members as well (they killed only once, so their roles seem to be weaker in this regard and therefore it wouldn't be balanced with only 2 of them). And that leaves us with a 1-3-3-9 setup. Basically unwinnable for us. Even with a 3-man-Mason group. But it at least explains why I was hitting scum wherever I looked. I had started this game with suspecting Ichabod (questioning his pindicator-vote), Lewwyn (can't remember what it was) and Q. And Bigger when he lashed out at me about white-knighting Azza. That is crazy. We killed 4 scum and all of them attacked me the first day, all of them were attacked or suspected by me the first day. I do think I am playing better than I did, but that is just ridiculous. And the only explanation I have (as much as I would love to believe that I am just this good) is that it was nearly impossible not to hit a scum. Which is the case in a 1-3-3-9 setup.

--------------------------------------------

So, there you have it in more detail Mattimeo. There are two possibilities I see right now, either you lynch me. The most likely outcome in that case seems to be that one of you or Azza will be assassinated, leaving a 1-1-1-1 night, with only one certainty: Village won't win.

Or you trust me that I am not a 4th faction. By Tasunkes own post I CAN'T be a 4th faction. I don't think that needs discussion but I am willing to go with you through his post in detail to prove you that he really did clarify exactly to uberfish that there will be only 3 scum-factions. He did post it in a clear and impossible to be misunderstood manner (though I think the issue here is that you have looked at the starting post by Tasunke and not the actual post in the thread when he told uberfish, so I hope after you read that post I quoted you will believe me).

Now, lets assume you believe me. In that case I can only be Dragon, Hunter, Wolf or Villager. If I am Dragon, I really have no reason for this play. Even if you lynch someone else by my word and I kill someone in the night, we would still look at a 4-1 the next day with me certainly lynched. Doesn't make sense. So there have to be more factions alive IF I am the Dragon. BUT Dragon is SK, what indicates nightkill-immunity. So, most likely I would get assassinated by the Hunter IF I am the Dragon and get you to kill someone else. Thats why I ask for who the Hunter is. We will not lynch him and you can be certain that if you lynch a villager due to my words, the Hunter will certainly assassinate me (possible NK-immunity, take no chances). But if that is the case, it makes NO sense to play like I do. Again, I can't be the Dragon because that would be throwing away my chances to win.

That leads to the point that I am either Hunter, Wolf or Villager. But Hunter or Wolf make no sense for me due to my play. Q should be prove enough that I am not part of the Hunters. And my fierce scream at you guys to get Bigger lynched yesterday should be prove that I am not Wolf either. Also my fight with Ichabod and him backing away immediately on D1, which was pretty telling in itself, should prove that I am not wolf, because that would be really bad play and honestly I think Azza can attest to me not playing that bad and also that I am trying to get a strategy rolling - so that wouldn't have happened.

So, looking at all that, as much as I know that it hurts Mattimeo, simply because I did get you mislynched last game and you certainly would like to give me back the favor (I know I would) we are of the same alignment this game. And therefore please, work with me and trust me. The same applies to Azza. I have thought about this long enough. Trust me that I know what I am doing.