Yes, you can say the Hunters have 4 kills and the Wolves have 1 kill, thus meaning the Hunters clearly have a better chance of winning. Right? BUT! ... you have both village and Hunters at 4 kills apiece. It should be obvious to realize that these two factions are nothing alike as far as how likely one is to win compared with the other. This single fact, while not disproving your thesis, at least weakens the claim that kill counts can guarantee win chance. That being said, if you exclude the day kills, and assuming the game went on for a little longer, the wolves would have had an advantage during the night: there was only one player directly immune to wolf kills, while there were 3 for fire and 2 for poison. (not including Void Demon or Shadow Dragon)
As I've already said (somewhere) I should have limited the Day-kill to being a one shot that can be used no earlier than Day 3. I certainly made some mistakes in the set up, but I will find it hard to believe if the Wolves (given infinite re-dos with different players) would have a win ratio less than 10% that of the hunters. (No I didn't do the math, but if you count passives, the hunters should NORMALLY only get one extra factional kill total, due to being more likely to getting blocked. Perhaps 2 more if you count the Vengeance kill ... but really, the V-kill is a 1 for 1 trade which is never good for the scum.
This set up was incredibly complicated and very swingy, but I think the basis is there, it just needed a few adjustments.
it needs a lot of adjustments :P and both rowain and mjw's roles should just be scrapped. also for 16 players 2-2-1 setup would be much better, with the elementals being masons with no additional powers (maybe keep the fire/poison immunities).
that said, im not saying the hunters have a better chance of winning NOW. i'd put all 4 factions at roughly 24% atm, honestly - with the other 4% the small chance of a two-way scum tie. I'm saying at the game start the hunters should have been the overwhelming favorites. that they managed to eat up all the lynches is not a function of the game setup, its a function of their play
Please don't go. The drones need you. They look up to you.
By voting block of three, I assume you mean three votes? If so, you could also have a voting block of 4 if the other 2 were able to trust the Shadow Dragon. AKA ... MJW jails Azza and Redirects onto Zakalwe. Still, assuming the set up was never revealed ... none of these people are seer-types, so its still not a situation of 'follow the cop' ... all it does it keep villagers alive till the end game in a scum heavy set up.
I mean, perhaps Zakalwe's tracker ability could have been used to find a scum of some sort, but it certainly would not have been as definitive as a seer. Pindicator was the 'seer' ... but if he was Jailed he wouldn't be able to do his power. In a 21 player set up pindy's role (and a few other village roles) would have been toned down somewhat. Scum roles would have been left the same, but they would have been facing a more spread out village (rather than the concentrated power roles we see in this game). IE, elementals probably would not have been masons, MJW(or whomever) would have been a human jailer rather than also having a redirector ability, etc, etc, etc.
ah, maybe the game would have been more reasonable with 21 players then. but you should have made a 2-2-1 setup, then you could have spread out the roles a bit with 2 more villagers.
Please don't go. The drones need you. They look up to you.
Hunters would have been the overwhelming favorites alright ... favorites to come 2nd to the Dragon. Lets assume, for the sake of argument, that all the wolves get killed off. The only way Hunters have of killing the Dragon (other than lynching) were the Obsidian Daggers (2-shot), and any of Lewwyn's kills (either night time decapitation or the vengeance kill).
Now, the vengeance kill could have auto-killed the dragon one shot, but assuming no external intervention, the hunters would have had to attack the dragon with BOTH of their obsidian daggers in order to kill it. Either that, or they would have had to wait for Lewwyn to be the last one alive, and Night attack him twice. (or once, if they used one dagger on the dragon).
So yea, I guess if you look at the set-up as only lasting 3 days, it looks like the 2-shot daggers are super awesome ... but at the same time it was the Hunters only hope of killing the dragon. Well not the only hope, but it was a fail-safe of sorts. Certainly should have had more limitations on it though, b/c it was just brutal on village (killing the Water Elemental). However, with the lynch of the arsonist, the loss of the Water Elemental was less tragic. (I'm sure it was rough on the wolves too. With mayor-village-wolf biting it right after winning some support.)
I probably should have made a 1/2/2 set up. Either that or a 1/1/3 set up. Was thinking about a 1/4 set up actually, but I was so focused on the really cool 1/3/3 I had in mind that I didn't give it much thought.
Originally the hunters were just Arsonist and Ninja Assassin. The ninja assassin had no night kill ability (even with arsonist dead) but only the two obsidian daggers. I saw this as a flaw, of course, as a Ninja without his Arsonist would just want to quit. Therefore, I had intended on allowing the Ninja to 'attempt' to flip to another side after the Arsonist was killed AND he had used up both of his shots.
He could travel to a player with a 'secret note', and had to guess their alignment. Could even join village, if he wanted. But he could guess either wolf, village, or dragon. If correct, he joined in as a powerless voting partner that, if the rest of the team died, he would auto-suicide. (ie, if dragon died, he would die too). A fun little take on alignment switching that wouldn't overly break the game ... sort of like a pumped up possessed. Of course, if he guessed the alignment incorrectly (guessed village and it was the dragon, guessed dragon and it was a wolf, etc) .... the Ninja would be auto-killed by the faction he tried to join (without using up their factional kill for that night).
So essentially, if he guessed wolf but it was dragon, then there might be two people burned alive that night by the Dragon (the ninja by default, plus the Dragon's real target).
im really not sure it makes that much a difference, novice. despite lynching scum both days, village will need more scum crossfire to win.. and it might have been more likely to happy without slowcheetah using his power.
of course he had no choice really after azza calling him out like that. setting himself up for a mislynch would have been disastrous for the village.
Please don't go. The drones need you. They look up to you.
(December 15th, 2012, 21:33)Mattimeo Wrote: Re: 1-3-3-9
Why have the hunters been getting both a day and a night kill every day, then?
And I don't see anywhere that Tasunke specified there are only three anti-town factions.
Quote:-> Hunters will be in Orange and Werewolves will be in silver. The Dragon will show up in Red.
Methinks Serdoa is rather too insistent about working the existance of the Obsidian Dagger user into existing factions, when its modus operandi really doesn't seem to fit at all. The attack on waterbat for being said dagger killer, when waterbat's kill went through exactly as claimed, and did not match either of the dagger kills (even occured at the same time as one) just reinforces for me that Serdoa is probably the dagger wielder, trying to throw a smoke field down around his existence.
Would have actually been preferable to have kills go through last night. At least then, we'd know how many there were, which would tell us if there were any wolves or hunters left. I'd be willing to bet there would only have been a dragon kill. As crazy as this setup is, even Tasunke has to know that 1-3-3-9 is pretty much impossible for town, even with perfect lynching.
Mattimeo, below you find part of a post I had pre-written yesterday but decided not to post yet. I had hoped not to need it right now already (and not to prove my words to you) but there it goes:
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I am not sure that we only have the dragon remaining. Lets look at a table I made myself in order to provide me an overview of whats going on:
I have colored the first part as per alignment and the second part (after the Death Time column) by (suspected) killer. As you can see I assume that the Hunters have killed 4 other players. Part of the reason is this post by Mattimeo
Quote:night kills:
Every kill processed so far has had a different method of death attached to it
- lynched, assassinated, burnt alive, eaten by wolves, poisoned
Assassinated / poisoned seem the only similar ones - same faction, perhaps?
Would imply that Qgqqqqq's faction was the one that killed novice.
which I would agree with. The other part is this post by Tasunke
Quote:3 scum alignments.
Dragon(sk), Hunters, and Werewolves.
Orange is for Hunters. (Lita the Witch was just orange in the opening story to signify not town)
which clearly states that we have 3 scum alignments. So that indicates for me that we do not have a second SK running around. And as waterbat claims village vig but not the kills we would need to have another village vig, which I do not believe. Reason is that two village vigs which both kill at day + pindicator who certainly was at least a village vigilante himself (see Tasunkes story-part:
Quote:Meanwhile, Pindicator, the Seeker of Truth, was sipping on tea in his library. He was befuddled, he went after to kill someone, but they had dissapeared in a puff of Shadowy Smoke.
) is just not feasible imo. I'm actually not even believing waterbat, exactly because of us having pindicator as vigilante already. So, that means those kills have to be attributed to the Hunters I believe. Now, why is that important? Well, because reading Tasunkes write-up, Bigger was assassinated AFTER Lewwyn had died. So at least another Hunter seems to run around as well.
That alone would be bad enough I think, but if the Hunters had 3 members AND could kill Day and Night, than I think it is save to assume that the wolves were 3 members as well (they killed only once, so their roles seem to be weaker in this regard and therefore it wouldn't be balanced with only 2 of them). And that leaves us with a 1-3-3-9 setup. Basically unwinnable for us. Even with a 3-man-Mason group. But it at least explains why I was hitting scum wherever I looked. I had started this game with suspecting Ichabod (questioning his pindicator-vote), Lewwyn (can't remember what it was) and Q. And Bigger when he lashed out at me about white-knighting Azza. That is crazy. We killed 4 scum and all of them attacked me the first day, all of them were attacked or suspected by me the first day. I do think I am playing better than I did, but that is just ridiculous. And the only explanation I have (as much as I would love to believe that I am just this good) is that it was nearly impossible not to hit a scum. Which is the case in a 1-3-3-9 setup.
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So, there you have it in more detail Mattimeo. There are two possibilities I see right now, either you lynch me. The most likely outcome in that case seems to be that one of you or Azza will be assassinated, leaving a 1-1-1-1 night, with only one certainty: Village won't win.
Or you trust me that I am not a 4th faction. By Tasunkes own post I CAN'T be a 4th faction. I don't think that needs discussion but I am willing to go with you through his post in detail to prove you that he really did clarify exactly to uberfish that there will be only 3 scum-factions. He did post it in a clear and impossible to be misunderstood manner (though I think the issue here is that you have looked at the starting post by Tasunke and not the actual post in the thread when he told uberfish, so I hope after you read that post I quoted you will believe me).
Now, lets assume you believe me. In that case I can only be Dragon, Hunter, Wolf or Villager. If I am Dragon, I really have no reason for this play. Even if you lynch someone else by my word and I kill someone in the night, we would still look at a 4-1 the next day with me certainly lynched. Doesn't make sense. So there have to be more factions alive IF I am the Dragon. BUT Dragon is SK, what indicates nightkill-immunity. So, most likely I would get assassinated by the Hunter IF I am the Dragon and get you to kill someone else. Thats why I ask for who the Hunter is. We will not lynch him and you can be certain that if you lynch a villager due to my words, the Hunter will certainly assassinate me (possible NK-immunity, take no chances). But if that is the case, it makes NO sense to play like I do. Again, I can't be the Dragon because that would be throwing away my chances to win.
That leads to the point that I am either Hunter, Wolf or Villager. But Hunter or Wolf make no sense for me due to my play. Q should be prove enough that I am not part of the Hunters. And my fierce scream at you guys to get Bigger lynched yesterday should be prove that I am not Wolf either. Also my fight with Ichabod and him backing away immediately on D1, which was pretty telling in itself, should prove that I am not wolf, because that would be really bad play and honestly I think Azza can attest to me not playing that bad and also that I am trying to get a strategy rolling - so that wouldn't have happened.
So, looking at all that, as much as I know that it hurts Mattimeo, simply because I did get you mislynched last game and you certainly would like to give me back the favor (I know I would) we are of the same alignment this game. And therefore please, work with me and trust me. The same applies to Azza. I have thought about this long enough. Trust me that I know what I am doing.
lmao. that is the longest wall of text I have ever seen that says absolutely nothing. bravo Serdoa.
btw, it is easy to tell who the scum are - they are the ones who actually have a clue about the setup. the villagers are still clueless.
Please don't go. The drones need you. They look up to you.
I agree Bigger, Serdoa is acting a bit too clued in here. A fine piece of deduction none the less, but it does seem like he had one less unknown variable to account for than a villager would have.
And yeah, the village needs more crossfire, or they need to hit with a protective role.
![[Image: RolesDeaths.JPG]](https://dl.dropbox.com/u/18761275/WW18/RolesDeaths.JPG)