WW 18 Siege of the Dragon! (Game Thread)

[Serdoa]

I'm going to miss deadline (getting a tree) but I expect to be alive given Serdoa put me forth as the dragon. Also likely he'll die as a frame job.

I cannot tell you how this is possible in a non-bastard-GM game Mattimeo. But I believe that we have a 1-3-3-9 scenario here. And that alone is enough reason for me to believe that this game was balanced very... interestingly - having 7 scum out of 16 players is so ridiculous that I won't be even surprised if waterbat is SK and has a poison kill at day to boot. I am believing him that he has it Mattimeo, there is no question for me. And I even believe him that he has only one charge. Taking into account the kills we saw so far for the Hunters, I think it is possible that the Dragon got something else as well to make him at least a little bit more likely to win. That makes kinda sense in this setup. The only ones I am not sure about what they got are the wolves. But they do definitely have more than there normal faction kill, I know that by my role.

Anyhow, read above post from waterbat. I bet you any amount you want that he wrote that as a safe-claim in case slowcheetah isn't sacrificing himself and I die. And how would he know I die? Because he is killing me. As Dragon. Why else would he post that? Read it and tell me that you can find any doubt in his words that I will die if slowcheetah isn't sacrificing himself. There is none. He is even before the night ends certain that he will not die but that the dragon will kill me to frame him.

[Serdoa]

[quote='Serdoa' pid='318644' dateline='1355664945']
And lastly you have now to concede that waterbat as Dragon makes little sense. I think you can also agree that me beeing scum but not killing Azza or slowcheetah is far fetched at best. In short your list of the 3 scums can't be right.

Rowain, there is a difference between something not making sense for us (waterbat as Dragon also having a poison kill at day) and the results of that. Yes it makes no sense and I think it is unfair to all other players. Though I still believe waterbat is the Dragon.

As for your assassinations: No, I don't agree. Quite simply. I think they make sense, with the information you had at every single point.

[Rowain]

But they do definitely have more than there normal faction kill, I know that by my role.

It is more and more interesting what you reveal. So you know that WW have another ability for sure which nobody has seen so far during the 2 days and nights we have played. Care to enlighten us what this mistirious ability is?

[waterbat]

Wow.

Serdoa, good eye on pindicator, On phone, but wanted to quickly point out that I only had 1 charge and was hoping to pick up more arrows along the way ( although making the vig decision is so tough, perhaps better not to have found them) It's possible pindicator was in the same boat with a limited charge. His name was truth seeker -his primary power probably scanning, no? In any event, I agree that do many different sources of homicide is disconcerting. Your rainbow spreadsheet tells the story.

@Matt, I'm still open to the idea that there aren't an equal number of hunters and wolves. So maybe your quite "selrahc for wolf, then?" doesn't have to be true. We would have to evaluate what happens end of day/night.

@Rowain: I assume you are not limited in number of daggers?
Can I ask you to hit the dragon and also vote you to hang at the same time?
That doesn't seem right.

[Selrahc]

I actually think Serdoa is the dragon here. He is planning to parlay with the other scum faction at night, after eliminating the Hunters. Since the Hunters get a day kill rather than a night kill, and assuming he is right about the start numbers, this will move the end game to a 2-1-1 scenario. Azza or Mattimeo will be killed by the last hunter shot.

The dragon, as a serial killer, presumably has greater abilities than a regular factionista, so he is hoping to convert that situation into a win.

I'm still not entirely sure why everyone is now convinced it's a 3-3-1 setup though? It seems to be mainly based on the fact that the hunters got a day kill despite Lewwyn dying. But we have no evidence that being killed would stop the day kill working.

Regardless of all this though, I scanned Rowain as "Dark" last night. That doesn't necessarily mean he is a bad guy. I scried MJW as "dark" as well, and he turned out to be village aligned. But I'm willing to go after Rowain.

[waterbat]

Cross posted back a bit with last one.

@Serdoa. Read all the posts from N2 and assume we are down to 6-1. How's the dragon going to kill me? He's going to go for confirmed villagers or you as a set-up. Maybe what I posted was too obvious.

I'm too slow on my phone and RL interruptions to keep up.

[waterbat]

But they do definitely have more than there normal faction kill, I know that by my role.

It is more and more interesting what you reveal. So you know that WW have another ability for sure which nobody has seen so far during the 2 days and nights we have played. Care to enlighten us what this mistirious ability is?

If he's immune to this method and they only used it on him so far? Also interested to hear.

[Rowain]

A summary of possibilities:

a) 3-1-1-1 setup:
- case 1: Serdoa' theory: I'm hunter+assassin, selrahc=wolf, waterbat=Dragon + poison arrow. As outlined already this theory needs a redicoulous setup and a very 'strange' play from me.

-case 2: Serdoa = Dragon, Selrahc=wolf, waterbat=hunter. Good fit with the abilities, Explains the use of poison for zak and nightkill, Gives reason why Bigger did attack me but not attack Selrahc when he was called a Lurker. And as outlined above explains why Serdoa makes such a move.

b) 5-1 situation:
- case 1: Dragon waterbat: same problem as above (poison arrows with Dragon don't fit well)
- case 2: Dragon Serdoa: possible. Todays play high risk move to win. Perhaps he really believed that there is more scum here and he tried to get their help.
- case 3: Dragon Selrahc: Also possible. Nothing contradicting that at all. Claims now that he scanned me and MJW as Dark. Hard to believe as I don't think he voted MJW even once yesterday

[Rowain]

And in light of the last point: Selrahc

[Serdoa]

But they do definitely have more than there normal faction kill, I know that by my role.

It is more and more interesting what you reveal. So you know that WW have another ability for sure which nobody has seen so far during the 2 days and nights we have played. Care to enlighten us what this mistirious ability is?

If he's immune to this method and they only used it on him so far? Also interested to hear.

Can't tell by the rules.