WW 18 Siege of the Dragon! (Game Thread)

[Serdoa]

Overview updated:

[waterbat]

Told you Selrahc. Azza, I protected you tonight again, not sure you've got any information about that?

Yes you told him. In fact you forshadowed it - I thought one is supposed to do that after one's kill orders go through?
In fact, I assumed you would kill him unless you reasoned that he would kill me instead. That was key. If you thought he would kill me - you wouldnt strike him. You need him or I in the game. But - if you thought I was safe- you'd certainly want the person you are pushing as dragon in the game. and as for protection.... so far the dragon only has had 1 power burninating - you think role-blocking is out of the question? roleblock the wolf, but kill him - its an easy setup.

@waterbat

Only one question: If I am the Dragon, why would I kill Selrahc? He was the wolf - as I stated all the time - so I should have killed you, assuming he will kill one of Azza and Mattimeo. That would lead us to a 1-1-1 with the villager just able to decide who wins (or voting for himself, getting us into the nightphase).

You can go into 1-1-1 OR you can win. Hmmmm. I think you are going for the win here. Killing Selrahc makes sense because it leaves you in a 3-1 and you only need to convince them to vote me. in a DRAGON - WOLF - VILLAGER endgame , its up for grabs. in a VILLAGER-VILLAGER-DRAGON-PATSY (im sure that's what I'll be labelled again this game) - you have a pretty good chance at the win.

In any event - I am content to vote with Matt and Azza. If they have a back-channel, they may have already decided. I do not particually want to engage in "Fourty-Eight Hours of Fun with Serdoa" like Qgqqqq and Rowain before me - but will do so if its called for!

[Azza]

Waterbat and Serdoa, what active abilities did/do you have?

[Serdoa]

Told you Selrahc. Azza, I protected you tonight again, not sure you've got any information about that?

Yes you told him. In fact you forshadowed it - I thought one is supposed to do that after one's kill orders go through?
In fact, I assumed you would kill him unless you reasoned that he would kill me instead. That was key. If you thought he would kill me - you wouldnt strike him. You need him or I in the game. But - if you thought I was safe- you'd certainly want the person you are pushing as dragon in the game. and as for protection.... so far the dragon only has had 1 power burninating - you think role-blocking is out of the question? roleblock the wolf, but kill him - its an easy setup.

waterbat, you really talk out of your arse here. Yes I knew he would die. But it makes no sense for me to kill him. It also would make no sense, if I was Dragon, to kill you. I would have two possibilities as Dragon:

a) I kill Azza or Mattimeo and hope the other is hit by the wolf. That would make it 1-1-1 with Selrahc, you and me and no confirmed villagers.
b) I talk with him so that we kill Azza and Mattimeo and agree with him to kill you the next day and fight it out over night.

Either way DUE TO MY PLAY THE LAST DAY I was not able to make this a winning situation, especially not without talking with the wolf. That is why I can't be the Dragon. At least if it is not assumed that I am completely dumb and stupid and not able to count to 5...

Oh, and the Dragon has two powers more, he can poison someone + I assume NK-immunity. Really, the whole notion that I would kill, out of all players Selrahc, is just crazy. Even if I get you lynched, then what? I nightkill Azza and the next day have a draw with Mattimeo? IF I could roleblock Selrahc, I would tell him to kill Azza this night, kill Mattimeo or you myself. Then we lynch you / Mattimeo. And in the night, when he might assume he can kill me (Mega Were Beast certainly sounds different then the other werewolves, so something is off here anyhow), I roleblock him and win. But no, instead I would kill him this night to get lynched today. Yeah, certainly.

Mattimeo, Azza, please, as I requested so often: Tell me how my play makes sense up to this point as Dragon. It does not. And especially if I could rolebock Selrahc, why would I not find a deal with him instead, see above? Thats the best hope I have at winning in my position if I was the Dragon.

@waterbat

Only one question: If I am the Dragon, why would I kill Selrahc? He was the wolf - as I stated all the time - so I should have killed you, assuming he will kill one of Azza and Mattimeo. That would lead us to a 1-1-1 with the villager just able to decide who wins (or voting for himself, getting us into the nightphase).

You can go into 1-1-1 OR you can win. Hmmmm. I think you are going for the win here. Killing Selrahc makes sense because it leaves you in a 3-1 and you only need to convince them to vote me. in a DRAGON - WOLF - VILLAGER endgame , its up for grabs. in a VILLAGER-VILLAGER-DRAGON-PATSY (im sure that's what I'll be labelled again this game) - you have a pretty good chance at the win.[/quote]

How. Good god, your logic is just so full of holes ("I think you are going for the win here... because it leaves you in a 3-1 and you only need to convince them to vote me" - and then what waterbat? Then I kill two in the night, but I didn't do that this night, or any night before because...)

In any event - I am content to vote with Matt and Azza. If they have a back-channel, they may have already decided. I do not particually want to engage in "Fourty-Eight Hours of Fun with Serdoa" like Qgqqqq and Rowain before me - but will do so if its called for!

Yeah, because you know that they have believed you up to this point at least, so engaging with me can't just make them see that not one single point you mentioned makes sense. You have no explanation why I should be the Dragon and play as I did. Because I am not the Dragon.

@Azza As I said, my active ability (my only one) is to protect others from the wolves. To be exact, one other. Which was you on D1 and D3 and myself on D2.

[Serdoa]

@Azza, Mattimeo

(I'll keep it short, ask if something is unclear)

Reasons why I am not the Dragon:

1.) I told you on D3 who is who. How would I know if not by simple elimination? As Dragon I would not know who of the 3 remaining players is scum and would have gambled on that for no reason. In my case though, as villager, I knew all 3 are scum and only had to identify which team they belong too. What I did with drawing Rowain out and confirming my suspicion that he is the Hunter.

2.) Night-killing Selrahc makes no sense at all. It was obvious that everyone believes that I am the Dragon. Much better to ask him to work with me. Worst that can happen is that he does not, but the result is the same in that case, I lose. But if he does, we are at 1-1-1 today.

3.) If for some reason I didn't want to work with Selrahc (expecting villager to rather vote for him than me on D4 for example), I still should not kill him. Going in a 3-1 is losing in my situation. Better to expect him to kill one of Azza and Mattimeo (only move making sense for him) and kill the other one. Killing Selrahc makes only sense if waterbat is the Dragon.

4.) I asked Selrahc to nightkill me. He was online at that time. I asked for a reason: If he nightkills me and gets nightkilled by waterbat you could lynch him and we would win. As Dragon if I want to talk with him, I certainly shouldn't ask him to nightkill me. Even as a smoke-screen that makes no sense, risk that he does is much too high (-> even if Dragon is NK-immune, we would be back at 3-1 endgame).

Chart I made myself yesterday to think about how I should play:



Now the same (without win-expectations as I need to write them by hand) with me as Dragon



And now, please look at this chart at the points which foresee Selrahc as dead and tell me why I would do that. None of those possibilities is good for me, I always lose. It was obvious he wouldn't touch Mattimeo (too high risk for no reward). But Mattimeo is certain that I am the Dragon. So how would I win? Killing Selrahc in my situation is just plain stupid.

And to add: Roleblocking his kill BUT still killing him, as waterbat wants you to believe, is not only stupid. That is so bad that it actually would be proof for a negative IQ.

[Mattimeo]

Nice dresses.

Serdoa - that's a lot of analysis about the night kill and its ramifications regarding you being the dragon that you managed to get done in 9 minutes.

Would like elaboration on waterbat's reasoning as to why Selrahc did not make a kill last night. As I understand it, you're saying that Serdoa, as dragon, is also a role-blocker and used that on Selrahc last night? Forgive me if I say that appears to be leaping to one too many assumptions...
Serdoa, your own reasoning is that you protected Azza last night, and Selrahc targetted him?


In completely unrelated news, I am the most useless <insert passive role that appears no longer applicable> ever. :sadface:

[waterbat]

re: spam: pretty dresses! Let's all get one.

@azza:

I have 2 active abilities:
1 (day) archer - to shoot poison arrows
2 (night) search for arrows

both had just 1 charge, I assume that I needed to hit one of the hunters to get an arrow - I needed to save it until we identified Rowain - but then, I'd be sitting with an arrow right now - I'm not sure what good that would do as game appears likely to be over before its delayed effect. well perhaps if it was 1-1 tomorrow and I was alive.

@Serdoa: I'll try to put my negative IQ to good use.

Killing and roleblocking and claiming protective powers seems like the only way for you to get some cred, turn the tide. Even then, I dont think "everyone thinks you are the dragon". Azza (with his double vote) didn't weigh in really yet. This is similar to earlier when you posted "don't vote just because you don't like me". You are quite paranoid and how i would expect a lone SK to be in games like this. I havent played much (4th game), so I'm not positive, but seems to fit.

The charts: really? so... we are to believe that you made charts like that as a villager?

Assuming you are villager, sitting there wondering what would happen at night. You are making charts on it? When it simple comes down to this:

VOTE THE LIVING PERSON TOMORROW WHO IS NOT AZZA OR MATTIMEO

Maybe I'm lazy, but I figured Selrahc would kill me off and hope for the 1-1-1 (as stated) and then didnt go much farther. My biggest fear was that you and selrahc would both hit true on Azza and Matt - leaving me in the 1-1-1. Either way - as villager, I'm a pretty passive participant during the night. Now - the dragon and wolf - making charts like that makes a lot of sense.

Here's the other big thing: Your assertions of your own play rest on the fact that you wouldnt take a draw with mattimeo on the last day. Your win condition doesnt state (like other games here) that you win if your faction >= the village faction? 1 >= 1 ? If you already know that you only draw if you get to 1-1, then yeah, you probably should have went for the 1-1-1 and negotiated. BUT - you already think everyone is against you - i don't see a player with that type of disposition liking the idea of a 1-1-1.

Last point on engaging: You are very correct that I have reasons for not wanting to engage. I've proven in last game I played that posting openly as villager has only done harm to our cause. The more I post, the more I will sound like scum.

x-posting with Mattimeo:

I wasn't making assumptions there. I saw Serdoa come in with a claim that he could stop the wolf.

It was about 95-100% clear to me that Selrahc was the wolf. I mean I guess made these assumptions to get to that point:
a "balanced" setup 9-3-3-1
Serdoa couldnt be the wolf
Azza and yourself are cleared

So... why would the dragon claim protection? Only if he could count on role-blocking the kill. That seems straightforward and not too much of a leap. Serdoa previously made the argument that I could not be wolf. His claim was that I had to be the dragon. So he has to kill Selrahc! Killing me gives more info to the village as it takes away the "who is the dragon?" question and reveals himself.

@Matt: Also - Note that Serdoa never pointed out who he protected (Azza or Matt). That is even more telling - a roleblock is general and covers all players - so he knew he could claim protection. Obviously he wouldnt have told us before the kill who he was going to protect, but he wouldnt have been so sure he was going to guess correctly.

@Matt: I thought the fire elemental would be a bad-ass.

[Serdoa]

Nice dresses.

Serdoa - that's a lot of analysis about the night kill and its ramifications regarding you being the dragon that you managed to get done in 9 minutes.

Why in 9 minutes? I've done that yesterday already (in the night-phase to think about what I can do, for example, ask Selrahc to nightkill me). It is automatically color-coding via another table which I use to input who has what role. And the night-kill possibilities are simply all of those I thought feasible (assuming your announcement meant that wolf and you die together).

I can do the same thing in another minute for you as Dragon if you'd like?

Would like elaboration on waterbat's reasoning as to why Selrahc did not make a kill last night. As I understand it, you're saying that Serdoa, as dragon, is also a role-blocker and used that on Selrahc last night? Forgive me if I say that appears to be leaping to one too many assumptions...
Serdoa, your own reasoning is that you protected Azza last night, and Selrahc targetted him?

I did protect Azza, yes. And as no one died I would assume that Selrahc did attack him.

In completely unrelated news, I am the most useless <insert passive role that appears no longer applicable> ever. :sadface:

Unfortunately I am not allowed to say what my passive is, but it is equally useless at this point.

[waterbat]

Unfortunately I am not allowed to say what my passive is, but it is equally useless at this point.

you both could hint at them a bit without crossing the line - i'd like another meteor shower. oh - wait until night - day meteor showers aren't quite as exciting.

[Serdoa]

@Serdoa: I'll try to put my negative IQ to good use.

Killing and roleblocking and claiming protective powers seems like the only way for you to get some cred, turn the tide.

Wrong. Lets assume I am the Dragon: Not roleblocking makes it 2-1 today. By roleblocking it becomes 3-1. Why should I? I have to convince the others anyhow to not lynch me. But with 2-1 I can nightkill and win. With 3-1, even with the nightkill I still go on the next day. So, roleblocking never makes sense in this situation.

Even then, I dont think "everyone thinks you are the dragon". Azza (with his double vote) didn't weigh in really yet. This is similar to earlier when you posted "don't vote just because you don't like me". You are quite paranoid and how i would expect a lone SK to be in games like this. I havent played much (4th game), so I'm not positive, but seems to fit.

It was quite obvious that I am believed to be the Dragon. But apart from that, why try to read and judge how I behave instead of simply looking at the evidence? You do that only because you know the evidence shows that I am indeed the wolf-baner I claimed to be.

The charts: really? so... we are to believe that you made charts like that as a villager?

Yeah, why not? Just because I invest more time in this game makes me scum or what? Yes, I made this charts to think about what is my best play and what you and Selrahc most certainly would do. It was obvious that - without intervention - Selrahc would kill Azza and you would kill Selrahc. I wonder that he didn't realize that, maybe he should have made charts. But obviously he didn't, despite being scum...

Assuming you are villager, sitting there wondering what would happen at night. You are making charts on it? When it simple comes down to this:

VOTE THE LIVING PERSON TOMORROW WHO IS NOT AZZA OR MATTIMEO

No, again thats not true. It is not as easy as that. If I could have gotten Selrahc to nightkill me, being pretty sure you will kill him, it would have been 2-1 for the village with you the clear scum -> Village win. And thats also why I didn't come up earlier with my question to Selrahc. If you two had realized, you would have maybe discussed and simply decided that you kill Mattimeo and he kills Azza. That would make it 1-1-1 with me only being able to decide who of you two wins or if I draw you. Not what I wanted. So, yes, I sat there yesterday and thought several hours about if there is any way I could play it that would make that village would win. Getting nightkill while you kill Selrahc would have achieved that.

Maybe I'm lazy, but I figured Selrahc would kill me off and hope for the 1-1-1 (as stated) and then didnt go much farther. My biggest fear was that you and selrahc would both hit true on Azza and Matt - leaving me in the 1-1-1. Either way - as villager, I'm a pretty passive participant during the night. Now - the dragon and wolf - making charts like that makes a lot of sense.

Yes it does. But only if you try to find a way to win for the village, what is nearly impossible in a 3-1-1-1 situation.

Here's the other big thing: Your assertions of your own play rest on the fact that you wouldnt take a draw with mattimeo on the last day. Your win condition doesnt state (like other games here) that you win if your faction >= the village faction? 1 >= 1 ? If you already know that you only draw if you get to 1-1, then yeah, you probably should have went for the 1-1-1 and negotiated. BUT - you already think everyone is against you - i don't see a player with that type of disposition liking the idea of a 1-1-1.

What? My win condition is fulfilled when there is no scum alive and still at least one villager alive. And again, if I am dragon, how is my position now anyhow better than if I let Selrahc live? Thats what you are not able to answer, because it isn't.

Last point on engaging: You are very correct that I have reasons for not wanting to engage. I've proven in last game I played that posting openly as villager has only done harm to our cause. The more I post, the more I will sound like scum.

Because - in this game - you are scum.

x-posting with Mattimeo:

I wasn't making assumptions there. I saw Serdoa come in with a claim that he could stop the wolf.

It was about 95-100% clear to me that Selrahc was the wolf. I mean I guess made these assumptions to get to that point:
a "balanced" setup 9-3-3-1
Serdoa couldnt be the wolf
Azza and yourself are cleared

So... why would the dragon claim protection? Only if he could count on role-blocking the kill. That seems straightforward and not too much of a leap. Serdoa previously made the argument that I could not be wolf. His claim was that I had to be the dragon. So he has to kill Selrahc! Killing me gives more info to the village as it takes away the "who is the dragon?" question and reveals himself.

Bullshit, why do I not kill Azza or Mattimeo instead? Especially Mattimeo whom I could be certain that Selrahc would not attack, due to his announcement.

@Matt: Also - Note that Serdoa never pointed out who he protected (Azza or Matt). That is even more telling - a roleblock is general and covers all players - so he knew he could claim protection. Obviously he wouldnt have told us before the kill who he was going to protect, but he wouldnt have been so sure he was going to guess correctly.

I stated that I could protect others. Mattimeo told that the wolf would lose if he attacked him. I stated I know that you are the Dragon waterbat. So whom exactly would I protect? Tbh, it seems Selrahc also believed you that I am the Dragon, as he seemingly didn't make that obvious conclusion. So, yes, I didn't spell it out, because it was obvious.