WW 18 Siege of the Dragon! (Game Thread)

[Azza]

Waterbat, I may have missed it, but I'd love to hear your argument for why it has to be Serdoa rather than why it isn't you.

[Tasunke]

Hmm.

I think I might write the missed write ups now. (or soon at least, aka next 24 hours)

[Serdoa]

Azza, Mattimeo, waterbat, I don't believe we will get many more arguments here than we have by now, at least not if you don't ask questions as waterbat doesn't seem interested to post more and tbh thats the same for me, as I would at this point just re-post what I stated earlier. So, any questions from you two? If not, I guess nothing will happen that will change your opinion on the matter till tomorrow so we could as well end this day after 24 hours if all agree. Opinions?

Might I suggest than 05:30 on a day where we're not expecting to need to be up before 9 is not the best time to be posting something like this?

I'd've been up for it if I'd still been awake when the idea was proposed.

Yeah, true Mattimeo. But I wasn't sure myself if I should even post it and I don't keep track who lives in which time-zone tbh. For me that was 1930.

[waterbat]

@Azza:
Because I wasn't born into this world a dragon?

I've pointed to a few places where I think Serdoa has betrayed his dragonishness, but i can start with why I'm not the dragon. Tasunke's sanity aside, I can't see how he gives the dragon the powers he gave me. Truly I believe my role was a mirror to MJW - give 1 villager a bad (void demon) role that screams wolf, give one villager a hunter (archer) role that screams hunter. I'll point back to the beginning when i was obsessed with the what to call the scum. I suspected something was up - that using my day vig powers was going to get me in trouble. I should have guessed hunter would be the name - as that is what i was tasked to do - hunt scum and hunt more ammo.

I've gone through the dragon kills to find some evidence (other than I cannot kill at night) as to why I would not kill that person.

1) Ichabod - He suspected and pushed me as scum. If SK, i would stay away from killing Ichabod as to draw attention to myself. Also, this was before setup was revealed (thanks uber!) - so we didn't expect ichabod (scum) to be hunting other scum.

2) does it help that i couldnt remember who died to the dragon night 2? of course slowcheetah heroically saved us. Here's a good point that came out of it: Serdoa said I was foreshadowing my own orders - that I was going to kill him. But.... if I am dragon, why kill the other viable dragon candidate? Things weren't as clear as they were on day 3 when Rowain outed himself. I did not fear death at that point because I felt we likely were in a 11-2-2-1.

3) Selrahc - after the revelation of a very 9-3-3-1 setup, i was expecting Selrahc to kill me. If I were dragon, I would want Serdoa in the game (same as Serdoa would want me in the game as explained earlier), so a Selrahc kill would make some sense. But! This assumes a 1-1 next day win for the dragon. Serdoa was certain 1-1 was a draw. That is how he explained he wouldn't have killed Selrahc. He clearly foreshadowed his own orders - just as he called out me for doing on N2. The certainty about the setup (he knows we were in 9-3-3-1, he knows 1-1 is a draw) betrays more knowledge about the game than we received. (also the 9-minute super analysis is suspect - and it actually only adds more credence to the fact that Serdoa knew in advance how it was going to play out)

It's hard to believe with all this death, we've only had 3 nights.

If you look at day3, Rowain also called out Serdoa for also knowing too much.

You seem to be sure that Selrahc is not the Dragon and that I'm not the Dragon either which makes me wonder why you are so sure about that. It only leaves you or waterbat as dragons and a poison-dart(waterbat) doesn't fit that well which means you are the Dragon. I also note that you obmit the possible nightkills besides yours which shows that you have not the best intentions.

I had hunter tools, I used them and admitted it early. Why wasnt this some gambit to hide as the last hunter? That would make novice, pindicator, Bigger my list of kills. Actually, this makes a really good list if they were hunting for villagers and trying to lynch scum. I may have killed Bigger for the likelyhood that he was the dragon though - maybe they did as well.

Last game I played where I thought my fellow villagers were confident that I was innocent (only to have one of them switch vote at the last minute) was too much to take. Please give us some notice?

[Azza]

I don't want arguments for why you're not the dragon. I know from 17 that it's fairly easy to argue why it's not you even if you're scum. I want to hear your argument for why it has to be Serdoa.

[waterbat]

Ok - I get you, but ... if you and Matt weren't confirmed, and this was a normal 4-person ending, I'd have a hard time doing that.

Because you and Matt are confirmed - its process of elimination! i cant think of it any other way. For the purposes of your question, I could forget you are confirmed though and try that way.

[Serdoa]

I've pointed to a few places where I think Serdoa has betrayed his dragonishness, but i can start with why I'm not the dragon. Tasunke's sanity aside, I can't see how he gives the dragon the powers he gave me. Truly I believe my role was a mirror to MJW - give 1 villager a bad (void demon) role that screams wolf, give one villager a hunter (archer) role that screams hunter. I'll point back to the beginning when i was obsessed with the what to call the scum. I suspected something was up - that using my day vig powers was going to get me in trouble. I should have guessed hunter would be the name - as that is what i was tasked to do - hunt scum and hunt more ammo.

Coming from Void Demon to Wolf is a long shot to make already imo. But stating it would scream wolf is bending reality.

I've gone through the dragon kills to find some evidence (other than I cannot kill at night) as to why I would not kill that person.

1) Ichabod - He suspected and pushed me as scum. If SK, i would stay away from killing Ichabod as to draw attention to myself. Also, this was before setup was revealed (thanks uber!) - so we didn't expect ichabod (scum) to be hunting other scum.

Ichabod had to back from several players and had tried to attack several players. It was obvious something was not right, so even if he had shown up as villager, I doubt someone would have made the connection to exactly you.

2) does it help that i couldnt remember who died to the dragon night 2? of course slowcheetah heroically saved us. Here's a good point that came out of it: Serdoa said I was foreshadowing my own orders - that I was going to kill him. But.... if I am dragon, why kill the other viable dragon candidate? Things weren't as clear as they were on day 3 when Rowain outed himself. I did not fear death at that point because I felt we likely were in a 11-2-2-1.

Because at night 2 you didn't have any idea of how the setup looked like? As you say yourself, you believed in a 11-2-2-1. With 2-2 dead at this point it was you alone left as scum. And as you yourself posted: To make it look like it was a frame-job on you, to make you more save while you try to get Selrahc and Rowain lynched and nightkill Azza and Mattimeo. Makes perfect sense (and those two were at this point certainly more in danger to be called dragon for playing much too quiet)

3) Selrahc - after the revelation of a very 9-3-3-1 setup, i was expecting Selrahc to kill me. If I were dragon, I would want Serdoa in the game (same as Serdoa would want me in the game as explained earlier), so a Selrahc kill would make some sense. But! This assumes a 1-1 next day win for the dragon. Serdoa was certain 1-1 was a draw. That is how he explained he wouldn't have killed Selrahc. He clearly foreshadowed his own orders - just as he called out me for doing on N2. The certainty about the setup (he knows we were in 9-3-3-1, he knows 1-1 is a draw) betrays more knowledge about the game than we received. (also the 9-minute super analysis is suspect - and it actually only adds more credence to the fact that Serdoa knew in advance how it was going to play out)

What? waterbat, your first sentence shows that you lie. You talk as if you are a villager, but in this case, lets go back assuming you say the truth and are a villager. At the point you are talking about we had 5 players left: Selrahc, Serdoa, Azza, Mattimeo, waterbat. And you state that you expected Selrahc to kill you. Why? For what reason would Selrahc kill you of all people? You were a player whos alignment was not confirmed. Azza was a MUCH better target for him.

Ok, lets go on. After your first sentence, you admit yourself that killing Selrahc makes sense for you. But your statement it would be the same for me if I was Dragon is wrong. For me, killing Selrahc is dumb. Especially if I can roleblock (which I need to be able to, for your theory to work). Having a 1-1-1 against you and Selrahc would be much better for me in that case than being in a 3-1. I could simply have talked with Selrahc in the night, telling him to either work with me or be nightkilled by me. Then have him agree to kill Azza and kill myself Mattimeo. Than we lynch you today. All the time making him believe that will lead to a draw. And then instead I roleblock him in the night and kill him. Tada, I've won. Only, I am unfortunately not the Dragon.

Next: You say you killing Selrahc would mean that 1-1 would be a win. Apart from us not knowing your other powers, you yourself stated earlier in sense that not everyone wants to win. So you might very well have decided that a draw is the best you can get. Or as I said, have simply another power. Heck, who knows, maybe someone dies at the end of this day, due to poison. I'm not sure why exactly we should believe that you only have 1 arrow.

Last of that part:

"The certainty about the setup (he knows we were in 9-3-3-1, he knows 1-1 is a draw) betrays more knowledge about the game than we received. (also the 9-minute super analysis is suspect - and it actually only adds more credence to the fact that Serdoa knew in advance how it was going to play out)"

I assume that 1-1 is a draw because that is how it was handled since we play WW-games on RB afaik. That I knew that we are in a 9-3-3-1 was explained by me several times already AND how would I know as Dragon? Quite honestly, are you trying to imply that the Dragon, as only one, was told the exact setup? No, it was simple deduction (well, maybe not that simple) by analyzing the write-ups of Tasunke (and nearly every other post of this thread) and trying to work out whats going on.

And I asked before, I ask again: Which 9-minute super analysis? What are you talking about? Just because I post something here doesn't mean that I couldn't have thought earlier about it, does it? Oh, and lastly, yeah, I knew how it as going to play out. BECAUSE I did one day nearly nothing else than thinking about how everything could play out.

It's hard to believe with all this death, we've only had 3 nights.

If you look at day3, Rowain also called out Serdoa for also knowing too much.

You seem to be sure that Selrahc is not the Dragon and that I'm not the Dragon either which makes me wonder why you are so sure about that. It only leaves you or waterbat as dragons and a poison-dart(waterbat) doesn't fit that well which means you are the Dragon. I also note that you obmit the possible nightkills besides yours which shows that you have not the best intentions.

So, your best argument waterbat is that scum trying to save its hide called me Dragon? Really?

I had hunter tools, I used them and admitted it early. Why wasnt this some gambit to hide as the last hunter?

Ok, that sentence reads as if you want to state that you can't be the Dragon because in that case why didn't you hide as Hunter. Which is so ridiculous that I assume you did mean to ask why I didn't believe you to be the last Hunter. And why I didn't is easy: Look who attacked and voted you. Neither side, was it Wolfs or Hunters, did anything to help you. They clearly both didn't care if you die. Thats why I knew that of all players left, in a 9-3-3-1 you could only be the Dragon.

That would make novice, pindicator, Bigger my list of kills. Actually, this makes a really good list if they were hunting for villagers and trying to lynch scum. I may have killed Bigger for the likelyhood that he was the dragon though - maybe they did as well.

Please explain me what you even try to say with the above. I really don't understand it. Now you are a lone "good" Hunter? That has the assassination-power? And as for your Bigger-comment, I was asked yesterday several times by Rowain why he had killed Bigger and stated at that point already that it probably was because they thought he is the Dragon.

I mean honestly waterbat, what has half of your post even to do with the question Azza asked?

Last game I played where I thought my fellow villagers were confident that I was innocent (only to have one of them switch vote at the last minute) was too much to take. Please give us some notice?

I think Azza is not confident in you being innocent. Probably because you are the Dragon and probably because he also can't see how I could play like I did if I were Dragon. The actions of the Dragon and me being Dragon just don't work together.

[Serdoa]

Ok - I get you, but ... if you and Matt weren't confirmed, and this was a normal 4-person ending, I'd have a hard time doing that.

Because you and Matt are confirmed - its process of elimination! i cant think of it any other way. For the purposes of your question, I could forget you are confirmed though and try that way.

Interesting. It is hard for waterbat to explain why I am the Dragon. 'nuff said.

[waterbat]

After this readthrough (with day4 powered hindsight) it really shows what a fantastic 1st post Serdoa made.
I was convinced by it then and drank the kool-aid, but wow it looks nearly too good to be true upon reflection.

In that post:
Azza given a neutral.
zak and uberfish given a pass.
Qgqqqq = scum
Lewwyn = scum
Bigger = scum
Mattimeo = scum

3 out of the 6 on his first post? He's played a great game as SK with night-kill immunity. a) Nail the scum to the wall to get village cred and b) sit back and coast to the end c) win

but Serdoa has also spent the game wrongly painting Bigger and then myself as the dragon.

Particularly this post:

Ok, I'll post that now before I go to bed:

There are only 

Rowain
Selrahc
slowcheetah
waterbat
Serdoa (though I of course know I am village)

left to be the dragon / more scum. Mattimeo and Azza are confirmed village by now. If we indeed have a 1-2-2-11 setup, we should only see one night-kill (Azza or Mattimeo most likely). I believe by now that this is the case for meta-reasons (Tasunke wrote at the starting post about two hooded monks, which seemed to be the wolves) at least for the wolves. Though by their name (red and white) I could easily see more. Same goes for the Hunters of course.

Anyhow, I believe as most likely that waterbat is lying. The assassination-kill today seems identical with the one on D1. I'm going to go through everything he did, but he did lay pretty low I think. However, thats my most likely Dragon by now. But quite honestly, every single one of the remaining players could be it. The thing is, assuming the Dragon is really alone now, we should only see one kill tonight. Leaving us at 6-1 after the night. 4-1 in case of a mislynch and then 2-1 in case of another mislynch. So we are actually better off if waterbat isn't poisoning anyone anymore - and if he did and someone can protect somehow from it, it probably should be done.

That said, did you use your poison waterbat? And if you did, on whom did you use it?

He states that the assassination-kill was identical. Novice was assassinated, Zakalwe was poisoned. Also states "I'm going to go through everything he did, but he did lay pretty low I think" He never does this! He doesnt need to. At this point, I'm willing to believe that he truly thought the setup was 6-1 at the time as stated in the post. Putting a "im going to follow up on this" to make the post sound villagery, but then never actually doing it.


After Matt votes Serdoa, he says to matt:

Mattimeo, below you find part of a post I had pre-written yesterday but decided not to post yet. I had hoped not to need it right now already (and not to prove my words to you) but there it goes:

This seems like a bit of an overreaction to Mattimeo's vote. This is the fulcrum around which the game swings - because Serdoa then produces the spreadsheet and argument for the 9-3-3-1 setup (which proves to be correct).

Now, lets assume you believe me. In that case I can only be Dragon, Hunter, Wolf or Villager. If I am Dragon, I really have no reason for this play. Even if you lynch someone else by my word and I kill someone in the night, we would still look at a 4-1 the next day with me certainly lynched. Doesn't make sense. So there have to be more factions alive IF I am the Dragon. BUT Dragon is SK, what indicates nightkill-immunity. So, most likely I would get assassinated by the Hunter IF I am the Dragon and get you to kill someone else. Thats why I ask for who the Hunter is. We will not lynch him and you can be certain that if you lynch a villager due to my words, the Hunter will certainly assassinate me (possible NK-immunity, take no chances). But if that is the case, it makes NO sense to play like I do. Again, I can't be the Dragon because that would be throwing away my chances to win.

so.... if the Hunter with his daggers is the dragon's only threat ( because the dragon did a stellar job of scum hunting day 1, he's not likely to be lynched ), how is it not in the best interest to call out the hunter? Lynch the hunter and coast- its obvious in hind-sight this is what was being attempted here.

Also He knows the SK is night immunity - not that it "implies" night immunity, but it "indicates" it. And also says that he would have been assassinated by the Hunter. The hunter is going into an endame and wouldnt hit Azza or Mattimeo and try to slide by? That is a MUCH better choice that assassinating Serdoa for trying to call him out. Its clearly in Serdoa-as-dragon's interests to get the hunter out. He's proposing a deal when the village CAN still win on its own! why do this if not dragon?
Village could win by hitting true on the hunter and having the hunter not kill or hit someone immune. Maybe the hunter only has so many daggers* like i only had an initial arrow. Why paint the picture as so bleak and go for a deal here? Its a distraction and I am mystified that it worked.

* i asked Rowain to hit the dragon on the way out, but i figured that he didnt have any charges left. I hope this is true, but will wait for post-game. I was hoping his bluff, along with my assertion that he should strike Serdoa would cause Serdoa to being bargaining.

next post that draws my attention:

Rowain -> Hunter / Wolf / Dragon
Selrahc -> Hunter / Wolf / Dragon
waterbat -> Hunter / Wolf / Dragon

So, all in all, I know that you are Air Elemental, that Mattimeo is Fire Elemental and that I am Hill Giant. And I am pretty certain that we have 3 scum left. Therfore all of them are my no. 1 suspect, as all of them are scum. I do believe that we can't win as village anymore (even if we lynch scum, they will openly talk in the thread at night as the game will be over by then in regards to lynches), and so the only way to at least achieve a draw for us is by working with one of them. And what is our incentive for them that they work with us? Well, whoever is not working with us will get lynched and lose the game instead of getting a draw. Right now we have 4 votes in our possession (due to your double-vote) and even if they start openly coordinating right now, they can't prevent the lynch.

Therefore I suggest we offer a deal to achieve a draw together with whoever wants to work with us.

Ok - so he's worked out (along with the rest of us) that Rowain = hunter, waterbat = dragon, and Selrahc = wolf, but posts all 3 options under the three of us?? This is clearly trying NOT to "know too much" and failing. Then the rest of the post is a detailed description of how we should take the draw? We have 2 confirmed powers, he supposedly has a protective power against the wolf, the dragon is "indicated" night kill immune (possibly wasting one of the scum kills). How is this a draw situation. 4 votes still can still win. and here's the big thing.... many of the scenarios he laid out in his later scenarios, he counts 1-1 as a draw. If so ------- why throw away any chance at a village win when a draw is likely to occur anyway? It is so obvious (ok hindsight) here that he will broker a village deal with the hunter (or i guess the wolf if he steps out), but then betray that at night and go for the SK win.

Aso suspicious about the day 3 lynch comments:
at 15:01: asks Rowain which one of the scum factions he is. really??
at 15:22: I told you he was one of the hunters

in between those - saying he expects to be dead. again - the dragon has only to fear the hunter and it certainly felt like the hunter would take him out there. (again, Im hoping Rowain didn't have charges - not that he was spiteful)


Then we get to the hypocritcal forecasting of one's own nightkill orders.

Selrahc - if I am not the Dragon (as I tell you all the time) than you know that you will die this night, right? So please, nightkill me and let the village win for once.

Not much to say about that. I could have posted the same reasoning. If I am not the dragon, Serdoa would kill Selrahc in an effort to keep me in the game and be the obvious mislynch the next day.

Then the post with the spreadsheets.; I havent focused on the sheets, my IQ too low for them apparently, but the 4 statements:

1.) I told you on D3 who is who. How would I know if not by simple elimination? As Dragon I would not know who of the 3 remaining players is scum and would have gambled on that for no reason. In my case though, as villager, I knew all 3 are scum and only had to identify which team they belong too. What I did with drawing Rowain out and confirming my suspicion that he is the Hunter.

Serdoa claims credit for telling you who is who. Clearly it was obvious at that point that 3 out of the 4 remaining players not named Azza or Mattimeo would be scum. Clearly Serdoa and I were not part of the wolves - so.... that leaves pretty little to figure out. He said as Dragon saying what he would have done was "gambling for no reason", there was no gamble - but there was a big reason - to prevent his own lynch. Even the calling out of Rowain was designed for the same purpose - a) identify main threat and b) prevent his own lynch

2.) Night-killing Selrahc makes no sense at all. It was obvious that everyone believes that I am the Dragon. Much better to ask him to work with me. Worst that can happen is that he does not, but the result is the same in that case, I lose. But if he does, we are at 1-1-1 today.

3.) If for some reason I didn't want to work with Selrahc (expecting villager to rather vote for him than me on D4 for example), I still should not kill him. Going in a 3-1 is losing in my situation. Better to expect him to kill one of Azza and Mattimeo (only move making sense for him) and kill the other one. Killing Selrahc makes only sense if waterbat is the Dragon.

Not making a case for why killing selrahc makes sense for me? this is a strong statement:

Killing Selrahc makes only sense if waterbat is the Dragon.

He doesnt make this case - he only makes why it doesnt make sense if it was him. but it completely makes sense. kill the non-dragon candidate, convince the villagers to mislynch (pull out some spreadsheets), and then go into the last day 1-1. Again, i pointed out that only Matt and myself indicated that Serdoa was the dragon. Azza the double-voter and mayor did not weigh in. It makes perfect sense if he is the dragon as well and we are following that course right now.

now i see im crossposting with serdoa - so ill stop there and respond if needed in another post.

[waterbat]

@Serdoa, in the end, we've both "proven" the case the same way. by "process of elimination". If it can't be azza or Matt, and its not me, I KNOW WHO IT IS!
You've used arguments about your actions that could easily be applied to me and my actions - I've struggled to find any place where you've *clearly* given away your dragonship.

Its always possible we been taken for a ride. That Tasunke slipped in a fire-elemental/dragon combo. FIRE = FIRE right!?!?

i dont think i voted, and in the event work drags me back into my cave before the deadline: Serdoa