WW 19 Game Thread - Mobster Mayhem - GAME OVER

[Qgqqqqq]

You mean after last minute deadline s**t.

[pindicator]

If the gun is in village-hands, I'd rather have them shoot and pass it on than wait and die with the gun. But also I would neither vote who gets shot nor who gets the gun. Village has shown that it either is not very good or wolfs are already influencing them heavily. Either way, right now I trust that a villager alone will make a better decision than this village as a whole.

Why is Serdoa the first person to question if the gun is in villager hands?
Why did nobody else do this earlier?

I have no idea whether that means we may have had a wolf slip earlier or if Serdoa is being extra-careful with his words here, I just thought that interesting.

[Serdoa]

We say that (or at least I do) because Rowain never said a word about why I was scum, even when I specifically asked for it. And I stated explicitly myself multiple times why I was voting Rowain - because I didn't believe him when he said he believed me to be scum (why would I, he never gave any reasons) - and he never commented on that.

Here, what Q just said:

Guys no-one ever made a case saying why they thought novice was evil; only that they ythought claiming the card was scum, hence selrahcs plan is different.

I wanted to answer Q anyhow, and as you quote him I can answer you both together:

Show me please the post in which Rowain states that novice is scum. Show me please the post in which Rowain states that he thinks claiming the card was scum. You won't find it. He only ever stated that it could be as well a scum-ploy as a villager-play.

Thats probably also the reason he never gave you an answer to your question novice, why you are scum, because he never said you are. He said that you (as anyone) else has a 50:50 chance to be scum and ... ugh, we had all that already several times. You remember his 6 categories-post, no?

Also, Serdoa, are you seriously saying that a 90% reliable seer is useless? You can weigh his evidence against other sources, you know.

I am saying that if you do not know which of his results is part of the 90% that are reliable and the 10% that are not than yes, he is useless because even though his results are 90% correct you only know in 13% that they are correct. 87% of the time you do not know. I made a post explaining the math already, go find it yourself.

[Serdoa]

Why is Serdoa the first person to question if the gun is in villager hands?
Why did nobody else do this earlier?

I have no idea whether that means we may have had a wolf slip earlier or if Serdoa is being extra-careful with his words here, I just thought that interesting.

Nah, we are told that only the board is definitely with us at the start, so obviously no other item can be considered certainly in villager hands. I actually assume that BRick simply randomized who got what and did not care if scum or village. So yeah, maybe you found a wolf slip by Selrahc. Another one...

[novice]

Why is Serdoa the first person to question if the gun is in villager hands?
Why did nobody else do this earlier?

I have no idea whether that means we may have had a wolf slip earlier or if Serdoa is being extra-careful with his words here, I just thought that interesting.

Nah, we are told that only the board is definitely with us at the start, so obviously no other item can be considered certainly in villager hands. I actually assume that BRick simply randomized who got what and did not care if scum or village. So yeah, maybe you found a wolf slip by Selrahc. Another one...

A wolf slip by Selrahc? You realize he's quoting you?

[novice]

Show me please the post in which Rowain states that novice is scum. Show me please the post in which Rowain states that he thinks claiming the card was scum. You won't find it. He only ever stated that it could be as well a scum-ploy as a villager-play.

That's my point exactly. He wanted to lynch me even though he didn't think I was more likely than anybody else to be scum. And we showed him why getting rid of the Fool card was unimportant. It was just a terrible stance.

As for the rest of your post, I'm not going to get into a mathematics debate with you Serdoa. Neither of us would enjoy it. I'm just going to have to take your word for it that you believe in your own understanding of probability.

[pindicator]

Why is Serdoa the first person to question if the gun is in villager hands?
Why did nobody else do this earlier?

I have no idea whether that means we may have had a wolf slip earlier or if Serdoa is being extra-careful with his words here, I just thought that interesting.

Nah, we are told that only the board is definitely with us at the start, so obviously no other item can be considered certainly in villager hands. I actually assume that BRick simply randomized who got what and did not care if scum or village. So yeah, maybe you found a wolf slip by Selrahc. Another one...

Re-reading day 1, it's uberfish that first talks about the vig not shooting:

5) Personally I'm far more worried about the vigilante somehow finding its way into scum hands. Even though I'm normally an advocate of vigilantes shooting suspicious people, in this game whoever is the vigilante should NOT shoot because passing the gun on afterwards is too risky.

I know Selrahc also mentioned it at some point, maybe MJW too? Yay for re-reading 600 posts.... I'm only 100 in

[pindicator]

Serdoa, can you point me to the wolf slip by Selrahc that you are talking about? I've missed that, was it during this night or the day?

[Bigger]

not only is passing the gun on dangerous because it could slip into scum hands, but the chance of hitting villager is very high.

ok I think I would prefer the vig not even use it. It only has 3 shots (spread over 3 people) so the danger of "running out of time" before the end of game is not very high at all. even if you saved it until night 3 before using it.

[Qgqqqqq]

Yeah but the chance it gets lybched/nightkilled by then (N6) is reasonably high.