WW 19 Game Thread - Mobster Mayhem - GAME OVER

[Ryan]

The second guy I just feel is scummy is gonna be selrahc. Since im going down my list with waterbat on hold.

[Qgqqqqq]

WTF. Tasunke?!?!


DO NOT LIE AS A VILLAGER! ESPECIALLY DON'T CLAIM A ROLE AAS YOU DRAW OUT A PR!
THAPPLIES FOR YOU AS WELL WATERBAT.

MIS, as has been mentioned you should've waited for tasunke to respond, though it was probably best anyway.


I'm actually finding Ryan scummy , the way he ignored the obvious battle and kept pleading for people to join his waterbat lynch. SEEMS like complete newbie play but I actually think its more calculated in an attempt ti follow the BRick WW15 precedent..

@Ryan, the reason he pointed out ww 15was to show wolfs don't necessarily lurk, and moreover to show that in the past he as a wolf has not lurked.
Regardless of his guilt,Ithink Watergate has some real life problems that are causing him to lurk.

He's saying that they're nothing there he can defend against.

You mean this?
How so...

[Qgqqqqq]

The second guy I just feel is scummy is gonna be selrahc. Since im going down my list with waterbat on hold.

Hmmm Id generally advise against a list, as its too easy to get caught in a lock on who to vote for...

[zakalwe]

Sorry I thought I'd made myself clearer; I find Waterbat very suspicious - but the village seemed to be focussing on him alone so I thought I'd raise my suspicion on Ryan.
Now that Waterbats claimed ( ) we need to put off his lynch till either a countercclaim or the preson he says hes passing to confirm it.

We do? I'm willing to wait in this case, because the gas can is valuable, but you make it sound like this is suddenly our policy. That's not how we handled Tasunke's claim. I'm certainly not committing to it as a general policy, either.

Yeah, that post. I think your reaction yelling at Tasunke was over the top. I.e. possibly fake.

[Selrahc]

DA MATHS:
Assumption of 4 scum to start.
Assumption that the Ouija board scanned somebody innocent
Assumption that none of these people are the same (UV=WUOS for example)
13 player remaining
3 snitches, 10 mobsters.
Now to my mind, we also have cleared villagers. A substantial portion of them.
Novice, Serdoa, Unclaimed Vig(UV), MJW, Unclaimed Ouija(UO), Whoever Unclaimed Ouija Scanned(WUOS)

6 out of 10 are already cleared. Assuming they all reveal themselves, then there are 7 unsafes. Now we can kill 2 of those unsafes with the hold out pistol, so the ratio is actually 6:5 clear:unclear.

That is *just* within the bounds for the wolves to win, if the game goes in the worst possible way in terms of target selection.
(Today as day 1)
Day 1, 13-10:3 (6:7) villager lynched, pistol pass, trusted villager night killed.
Day 2, 11-8:3 (5:6) villager lynched, villager night killed by pistol, trusted villager night killed.
Day 3, 8-5:3 (4:4) Villager lynched, Only wolves remain untrusted, Trusted Villager night killed. If the villagers had another day, they would have a guaranteed wolf lynch, and a pistol night kill to accompany it... but instead
Day 4, 6-3:3 Wolf win.

But the only way for the wolves to ensure that? Make sure that not one more villager gets trusted status(or the day 3 ratio becomes 5:3, wolves only as targets). Make sure that none of the remaining vig shots hit wolf. Make sure that none of the lynches hit wolf. Make sure not to hit the gas can. If even one of those things happens, then the wolves have got a guaranteed loss on their hands.

Or not. The biggest break for the village is the pistol. If the pistol is lost, either by death or by theft, then the math breaks down, and the wolves have a slight margin, as the ratio of trusted to untrusted villagers won't dip against the wolves. What it does mean though is that from this point forth, their kills are almost locked in. They need to kill guaranteed villagers. Anybody who doesn't fall into the guaranteed six, is now completely immune to night kills unless they become claimed.

It also means that if you are one of the "anonymous cleared" and you fall under lynch threat, do not let yourself die.

[Qgqqqqq]

Sorry if I sounded dictating there, I did not mean it that way.
Isn't that how we addresed Tasunkes claim?
I thought it was, I know I backed off until Azza counter-claimed.

Yeah I'd just woken up.
For the record it was addresed at both Waterbat and Tasunke.

[Ryan]

Selrahc , It just feels like you avoid all the main discussions unless a susbtantial amount of people voted you or demanded you to talk. You can a few small posts but all you do is meta discussions after every heavy discussion ends. Ya you are keeping my vote. MJW is not in the clear yet there are possibilities of him being scum. With the card spending the night with Serdoa we now have a 100% sure seer. to check anyone.

[waterbat]

Sorry I thought I'd made myself clearer; I find Waterbat very suspicious - but the village seemed to be focussing on him alone so I thought I'd raise my suspicion on Ryan.
Now that Waterbats claimed ( ) we need to put off his lynch till either a countercclaim or the preson he says hes passing to confirm it.

We do? I'm willing to wait in this case, because the gas can is valuable, but you make it sound like this is suddenly our policy. That's not how we handled Tasunke's claim. I'm certainly not committing to it as a general policy, either.

Yeah, that post. I think your reaction yelling at Tasunke was over the top. I.e. possibly fake.

I can't read that. Q has been OTT like that on previous occasions. Zak - i can't guarantee I pass the gas can correctly. I like selrahc's math on skimming via my phone. Given that logic, Announcing who I pass to or expecting them to verify my pass seems counter-productive. I'll pass it and eat the lynch tomorrow. We still have a good shot to win.


Gaspar: are you having fun lurking u &!#%?

[Qgqqqqq]

Sorry x-post.
MJW is not (to my mind) cleared.
That setups worst scenario right?
It isnores the watcher too.
I think the way for wolves to prevent that is to get one of their own in as trusted (i.e. WW17).

[zakalwe]

Sorry if I sounded dictating there, I did not mean it that way.
Isn't that how we addresed Tasunkes claim?
I thought it was, I know I backed off until Azza counter-claimed.

You were saying we should give him another day to prove that he has the item he claims. That's not how we handled Tasunke's claim. Later in the game, we may not have the time for that. And there's no point anyway, for items that aren't indicative of alignment. And many of them are not, IMO.