WW 19 Game Thread - Mobster Mayhem - GAME OVER

[Ryan]

What did I say that was completely incorrect besides misunderstanding that lock pick and gloves replace the item they target. Also there are reasons for lynching Selrahc, it isn't just the meta hate and I would really prefer if instead of writing in defense of Selrhac without explaining why the lynching is incorrect . Read what Serdoa and several others wrote against him. If you think it's just my reasoning being incorrect. We also haven't had a good chance to question you . Due to you not being here

[Merovech]

Parking on Merovech until he explains his Uberfish vote better.

Okay, so I didn't seem to make myself clear. I have no idea how to fit Tasunke's death and fake-claim into my case on uberfish, so for now I'm just going to completely drop the whole fact that uberfish started the Day 2 run on Tasunke. If anything, it can be looked at with the logic "I don't like that very minor claim he gave last day and I want to pressure more out of him," and that way it actually makes uberfish look less scummy.

What I didn't like about uberfish's play:

1. Filler posts like #574, which are understandable but just make the very problem he is railing against worse.

Why is this thread 58 pages long? Scum please kill me so I don't have to read all this.

2. He repeatedly stated what I consider a misinterpretation of Rowain's argument against novice, that Rowain felt that novice had a good chance of being a villager and was only voting for novice to get rid of the card. In my reading, Rowain clearly stated that he felt that novice had at least agood chance of being a scum. #307 is one example post:

My main points against rowain is that he never went beyond the policy thing when arguing for novice's lynch

. Rowain mentions in multiple paces, inclduing post #92, why he thought novice could be a scum.

Actually, Rowain himself mentions this in the rather awkwardly worded post #226:

In short it is Rowain thinks it is better to lynch the card and be rid of it than to lynch a random who might be normal villager. He completly disregards the possibility that novice is scum. A few games ago uberfish voted me as mayor because he was sure he could easily read me. Makes me wonder what changed.

3. I felt he was cherry-picking picking in his arguments against Serdoa. [strikethrough] In fact, I mentioned that at the time, although I didn't give any examples. [/strikethrough] [u]No, I didn't. I was talking about him cherry-picking Rowain (see above). Actually, I can't find any evidence of this at all, just cherry-picking of Rowain's arguements.

Now, my rereading of uberfish's posts makes me suspect him less than Selrahc, who I also found very suspicious, mostly for reasons outlined by Rowain and similar to the reasons above. If necessary, I can make a similar post to this about Selrahc, but I'd rather not do the work when basically my argument against Selrahc has already been presented multiple times. I make no claim that much or even a little bit of the anti-Selrahc arguement is my own work.

Clarification: I still think uberfish is slightly scummy, just not so much as Selrahc.

[Serdoa]

Serdoa et al:
I *always*post meta speculation. It's just who I am. Getting mad at me for that seems somewhat pointless.

Trying to dissuade people from solving puzzles is bad behavior. I don't think it's scummy behavior, but I think it's unhelpful. We're not required to keep a super tight focus on the big issue, nothing else.

Selrahc, in all the games you played, you got fire when you only posted meta speculation. The important word is only. Thats why you get fire here as well. Not because you speculate about the meta, but because you use your meta-speculation as only contribution. That is an easy way for a scum to slip by. So, if you keep playing like that, I will keep voting like that, because it simply is impossible to differeniate if you are scum or village if you are not engaging in the game.

Thats also why the other sentence of you that I quoted is not true. You are not dissuaded from solving puzzles. But when that becomes all you are doing, it is hurting the village. Thats why I asked you to engage for real. Give your suspicions, react to what others post, let us know what you think of MJWs use of the tommy-gun, Merovechs posting style, Azzas lockpick-story. Anything. But don't throw us only meta-speculation.

You know, I understand that you like to do puzzle-solving. I can relate to that. But if you actually want to help your team (and of course if your team is team village) than you should start contributing more than that. I am not asking you to change your playstyle completely, but to expand it and include more than meta-speculation in it. Because otherwise you certainly will also in future games get lynched off early, and no matter which team you will be on, it will hurt them and it will take the opportunity to do the puzzle-solving from you.

Btw, you do realize that I'm 100% innocent if Serdoa is innocent, and that Serdoa is quite likely to be innocent? I'd kindly suggest that you focus your efforts on the more likely candidates for now.

Not entirely true. The scum who actually had the card passes it to Serdoa while you claim to have done so. I believe I've outlined this several times (including before it happened, with 'Serdoa' being 'a random villager') as how I'd be progressing from a fake miller claim as scum.

No, according to BRicks ruling the scum TEAM can't pass an item to their night-kill target. It is not just the one scum doing the actual killing. The rule is meant as a way to prevent item destroying I'd guess.

Btw: BRick: Could you please include this ruling in the official rules or let us know that you decided against it? I wouldn't have mind not knowing about it, but now that we were informed, I think it would be very unfair if we would find out after the game that you decided to handle it differently.

Arguments against Selrahc appear to be a mix of meta-hate and Ryan flailing. Neither of which I consider good reasons to lynch - Ryan's main value appears to be coming up with completely incorrect arguments have having them corrected (which ensures everyone else is on the same page, at minimum), while I personally consider productive meta discussion to actually be quite useful a lot of the time - especially if we know a reasonable amount about the game set-up, like we do here. No real read here.

Thats not exactly true either. I don't see incorrect arguments from Ryan. Stuff you might disagree with, yes. But that does not make them incorrect. For example the fool-card issue could be viewed in different ways. I still think Rowains stance was a good one. uberfish still thinks it was bad. Makes neither of us correct.

And as I explained above, the argument against Selrahc is not meta-hate but that he is only doing meta (among other arguments). It is not necessarily about how good the meta is or not, but that he simply slips by because he is playing as if he would not be involved in the game at all. And that makes it impossible to read him. Add to that the fact that he is evasive in his answers since the start of the game and you imo have a very good lynch target.

MJW shot someone who was overwhelmingly going to be lynched, meaning we actually had to engage in discussion for the rest fo the day - and he left plenty of time for us to do that discussion in. I'd say this gives him town leanings, though scum opportunisticly taking out a villager could be an explanation. I'd've been more inclined to save it as late as possible and hit town with a day kill they didn't know was coming to win the game / force MyLo a day earlier, were I scum.

Imo Tasunke at that point was not "overwhelmingly going to be lynched". Yes, after Azzas reveal he got some fire, but chances are we would have gotten a stand-off between the two, depending on how Tasunke would have posted. Thats why I really believe MJW should have waited - he could not know that Tasunke and not Azza is the liar and risking to shoot our night-vig that we could have safely verified on the next day anyhow was actually hurtful to the village, even though that Tasunke was partly lying (village, but not vig). Imagine what we would do right now if Tasunke would have been our vig - yeah, right, we would lynch MJW. Great if MJW maybe is town as well, than we lose the night-vig, the day-vig and two villagers for nothing. Bad, bad play for a villager.

[zakalwe]

I've been thinking a bit and I think I want to lynch one of the M's - Mattimeo, Merovech, or MJW. I'll elaborate in a bit on Mattimeo and Merovech. As for MJW, I can't point to much that is specifically scummy, but I know he is very good at staying in character as scum, and I haven't got any great town vibes from him either. I think the Tommy Gun would make sense in the hands of scum, as an end-game weapon. Might make sense in town hands, too, but we already got the vig.

Selrahc would make a decent lynch since he isn't giving us any reads despite having multiple opportunities to do so. I still think he's a likely mislynch, though. But I may have biased myself towards a town lean because I think he was attacked quite unfairly yesterday.

Pindicator, have you got anything specific for me to defend against? Any interest in any of my suspects here?

[Lewwyn]

I've been thinking a bit and I think I want to lynch one of the M's - Mattimeo, Merovech, or MJW. I'll elaborate in a bit on Mattimeo and Merovech. As for MJW, I can't point to much that is specifically scummy, but I know he is very good at staying in character as scum, and I haven't got any great town vibes from him either. I think the Tommy Gun would make sense in the hands of scum, as an end-game weapon. Might make sense in town hands, too, but we already got the vig.

Selrahc would make a decent lynch since he isn't giving us any reads despite having multiple opportunities to do so. I still think he's a likely mislynch, though. But I may have biased myself towards a town lean because I think he was attacked quite unfairly yesterday.

Pindicator, have you got anything specific for me to defend against? Any interest in any of my suspects here?

I pretty much disagree with everything you've said Zakalwe. And the tone of reserved withholding is just bugging the shit out of me.

[zakalwe]

About Mattimeo and Merovech. There was a whole series of posts back around the time of Tasunke's reveal that didn't sit right with me. At the risk of cluttering the thread even more, I will requote them here:

May not be around much next day or so. blew out my wifi router at home - so makes it difficult to post on the fly.

Willing to vote Tasunke
I buy into uber's framing up of the bigger-Tasunke interaction.

I need to hear Tas, but guess who just jumped to #1.

Holy hell, I am AWESOME. Halfway thought of going azza/water at/ mattimeo ... But glad I turned it into a bluff instead. How much u want to bet bigger had azza padlocked last night? Scary that wolves started with that item tbh.

Well, since passes happen after night kills, guess the gun will die with me

And I promise this isn't bait for wolves to hit the grenade

Nice. Waterbat

Waterbat

I think I can dig it. Proba ly one of him and azza are wolf, as bigger didn't protect himself(can he?)

Also think Matt is wolf for different reasons, but probably only one or
Two wolves out of those three ppl

So you just confirmed that you have the gun?

Grats on the bigger kill, but that is stupid Tasunke. If wolves have the pick then you know what's happening tonight, right?

Pfft, we can totally kill him off today, before they get a chance to steal it

Agreed with Lewwyn that waterbat's presence (and position) on the Tasunke wagon given the strong hints even before the full claim doesn't look all that good.

Hmm. Obviously, this makes Waterbat look bad, although I'm keeping my vote on uberfish. I also don't want to forget about Selrahc. I mostly voted for him because I really didn't want to see Rowain hang, but he didn't exactly give me an innocent vibe, and he seems to have slipped off the radar.

While I suspect Waterbat, I couldn't see at the time see how Waterbat would be implicated by a successful vig kill on Bigger. Tasunke was hinting heavily that he had the gun and would shoot either Azza or Waterbat. So if that kill went through, why would that implicate Waterbat? Of course, maybe Tasunke was in fact jailed, since he wasn't actually the vig, but for anyone believing his claim, that was not a possibility. So I couldn't understand why people were jumping on Waterbat over this. Allegedly it was all due to Waterbat being on Tasunke right before his reveal. That seems more like a convenient excuse. So if Waterbat is innocent, I'll be a little suspicious of Lewwyn for kicking this off, but even more suspicious of Mattimeo for parroting it. And if Waterbat is guilty, then I think Merovech's last post there looks very fishy. That looks like scum instinctively agreeing that his scumbuddy is suspicious, without really weighing the evidence at all.

Merovech

[zakalwe]

I also agree with pretty much everything in Serdoa's latest post.

I pretty much disagree with everything you've said Zakalwe. And the tone of reserved withholding is just bugging the shit out of me.

Ok, let's hear your take on it, then.

[Lewwyn]

While I suspect Waterbat, I couldn't see at the time see how Waterbat would be implicated by a successful vig kill on Bigger. Tasunke was hinting heavily that he had the gun and would shoot either Azza or Waterbat. So if that kill went through, why would that implicate Waterbat? Of course, maybe Tasunke was in fact jailed, since he wasn't actually the vig, but for anyone believing his claim, that was not a possibility. So I couldn't understand why people were jumping on Waterbat over this. Allegedly it was all due to Waterbat being on Tasunke right before his reveal. That seems more like a convenient excuse. So if Waterbat is innocent, I'll be a little suspicious of Lewwyn for kicking this off, but even more suspicious of Mattimeo for parroting it. And if Waterbat is guilty, then I think Merovech's last post there looks very fishy. That looks like scum instinctively agreeing that his scumbuddy is suspicious, without really weighing the evidence at all.

Merovech

As I was catching up this morning and reading I began to feel that waterbat was innocent before he claimed gascan. He just read more and more like a frustrated villager to me. So at this point I really think Waterbat is innocent and he's just played badly. But hell, I've been fooled by waterbat before. Thing is he just reminds me a lot of WW16 waterbat where he ended up as my lynchbait. I agree that there is a possibility of scum piggybacking me earlier to get at waterbat, but I also think he was suspicious at that point. And it makes sense. Waterbat was playing to be night killed. He was trying to act in a specific manner and ironically it made him seem more suspicious. So my point is that while he reds very villagery now, at that time he was reading scummy or at the least lazy and no read. I do not think Mero is suspicious for that.

Mattimeo hasn't posted enough. He's more suspicous then Mero. Why choose to vote for Mero over Mattimeo?

[zakalwe]

Just based on those quotes, I'd say Merovech makes more sense as Waterbat's scum buddy. And I would probably lynch Waterbat today if not for the gas can. I'm flexible, though.

[Mattimeo]

No, according to BRicks ruling the scum TEAM can't pass an item to their night-kill target. It is not just the one scum doing the actual killing. The rule is meant as a way to prevent item destroying I'd guess.

... and I'd even pointed that out to myself earlier, as well. Fuck I'm stupid sometimes.


zak:
I disliked the wagon on Tasunke, given he'd strongly hinted at having a powerful item the day before, and several people had pointed this out before the wagon got going (so it should have been public knowledge).
uberfish had at least put effort into coming up with reasons for voting him, relatively early in the day, but Azza (3rd) and waterbat (4th) had shown very little independant reasoning as to why they were following.
I was intending to vote for one of them for those reasons, and waterbat already had votes on him, so it would be more productive to vote him than Azza.

... of course, the fact that both of those people had very good reasons to doubt Tasunke was in possession of the items he was hinting at (especially waterbat voting him immediately after I made a post concluding that Tasunke was probably the bomb) now makes my earlier logic seem pretty bad, but that's the advantage of hindsight.