WW 19 Game Thread - Mobster Mayhem - GAME OVER

[Serdoa]

I don't think that's enough Serdoa . You need him to respond to all of that first . Also why did you jump so suddenly from Serlahc to MJW ?

No, actually I don't need him to respond to all of that first before I can vote him. Look: MJW. No problem.

And why would I not jump? There is not just one wolf around to find and I pressure those I find most likely. That hopefully will ensure that either he or Selrahc is at the end of the day on the top of the block, and as I suspect both, both are lynches I can live with. Additonally, MJWs shot makes less and less sense the longer I think about it. And he had enough time to think about it before he did it, so he should have realized what I realized before he shot. So, I simply don't see how a villager MJW would have done that. I first thought I would understand (his dislike for Tasunke), but the longer this goes on and the more he posts, the clearer it is for me that my assumptions for his reasons were wrong. And if those are not the reasons and the ones he give are just bad than I have to assume he is a wolf.

[Lewwyn]

Add in the fact that your scumbuddy Zak throws the "Three M's" out there and A) casts more aspersions on MJW (but doesn't vote there because he's already pretty town leaning) then B) throws out you his token scum just in case he or you are caught cover either way, and C) Mero his mislynch target.

A) Why is MJW town-leaning? Honestly, explain that Lewwyn. Because he shot a villager? Because he took the chance to kill our vig for no real gain whatsoever? That he did shoot a liar does not make the shooting any better. You seem to judge him on the outcome and not on the action. Thats imo a bad stance to take.

B) So you assume that Mattimeo is zakalwes scumbuddy? Does seem a little bit forced Lewwyn, more like you have decided both are scum and search now for a way to put them together.

C) You are certain that Mero is village? Why? Again, that seems like you assume something based on deciding that zak and Mattimeo are scum, without having any proof. Isn't that a little bit dangerous?

A) I am judging him on the action. I think it was a pro town action. I do think it was a bit hasty, IE: Tas didn't get a chance to explain himself, but I think we would have all lynched him no matter the explanation because in the end he lied. This has nothing to do with the outcome but the action. We were going to lynch Tasunke. By day killing him while we still had time to discuss the lynch MJW did well. He saved the town a mislynch and provided us time to reorganize. I do not think scum would do that. I think scum would save the tommy gun. I think scum would day kill someone who was less likely to get lynched. I give MJW a strong village lean.

B) Recent posts have made me less sure of the Matt-Zak connection but I still think both are suspicious. Its not like I'm married to the idea, but if I think two people re scum then inherently they are on the same team and looking at how they interact should be part of the scum hunting process.

C) I'm not certain at all that Mero is village. But I've liked his posts and thoughts on Uberfish. I agree that Uberfish has NOT been an engaged villager this game. He's been quite detached IMO. He is polar opposite to the villager Uberfish we nightkilled in WW16. Given that I agree with some of Mero's arguments and give him a village lean. But I haven't gone through all of his posts or anything.

[Ryan]

I don't think that's enough Serdoa . You need him to respond to all of that first . Also why did you jump so suddenly from Serlahc to MJW ?

No, actually I don't need him to respond to all of that first before I can vote him. Look: MJW. No problem.

And why would I not jump? There is not just one wolf around to find and I pressure those I find most likely. That hopefully will ensure that either he or Selrahc is at the end of the day on the top of the block, and as I suspect both, both are lynches I can live with. Additonally, MJWs shot makes less and less sense the longer I think about it. And he had enough time to think about it before he did it, so he should have realized what I realized before he shot. So, I simply don't see how a villager MJW would have done that. I first thought I would understand (his dislike for Tasunke), but the longer this goes on and the more he posts, the clearer it is for me that my assumptions for his reasons were wrong. And if those are not the reasons and the ones he give are just bad than I have to assume he is a wolf.

You posted several questions to him and voted him in the same post and those questions have answers likely. That's the reason why I said you should wait he might have a valid reason if not vote him.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Ryan: Serdoa's confrimed. Unless he lied about the silk vest. So if he does something its legit.

1) Why would it have been even worse for the village if Azza somehow got himself lynched? Do you know for certain that Azza is village? Only a wolf would know that (or the seer but that can't be you)
2) Why have you killed Tasunke despite the chance that he is really our vig? I can't read in all your text an explanation for that. You simply state that he wouldn't have gotten another night-action anyhow. Thats true, but that would still not tell you if he is scum or not. Killing him was not providing us with another lynch, it was providing the scum another night-kill. If he was our vig, at least they would have had to kill him in the night. AND we would have still the shot from your gun. There was simply no good reason to shoot at this point.
3) Why do you kill Tasunke when you yourself state that you had a scum-lean on Azza? Why not Azza instead? Even now you mention Azza as one of your suspects. If you just wanted to end this discussion, shoot Azza. His item is worth less to us if we lose it. We know if Tasunke says the truth as well and either way, Tasunke dies in the night by the scum in any case if he himself is not scum.

In gist, there is no reason whatsoever given in your post why you shot Tasunke. It is not even true that we would have lynched either of the two, as I (and I think others) pointed out BEFORE you shot, it would have been fine to let them both live till D3 and see then if another vig shows up. If yes we lynch Tasunke, if no we lynch Azza. Easy and no reason to lynch either of them on D2. Yes, it would have had the same outcome, but you couldn't know that. As a villager you made a very bad decision. But reading your last post, I doubt you are a villager and thought about this like a villager would have:

MJW

1. It would be worse for Azza to get lyched as Tasunke would be shown to be a lair. This would cause a double-mislych which is wolf. Unless Azza is a wolf. But if I were a wolf Azza would have to be one to. And that seems unlikely for the reason waterbat said.
2. Tasunke would have never avoided getting lyched. That's why he would not get a night action. Why? The 50%/50% chance of hitting a wolf is far too tempting for the village to resist. So ether azza or Tasunke is going to die. And its pretty clear from the voting that azza would win unless he did something extremely silly.
3. I don't remember saying that azza was scum before tasunke died. I'm just said that although azza had scumism things about him (lockpick, lurking) those things are not even close to tasunke. I can say why I don't like Tasunke at all very much for the billionith time if you want me to.

Basically, my play makes perfect sense if you understand that Tasunke was going to get lyched. Despite what you and others may have posted it was always unthinkable that Tasunke would fail to get lyched. There's a reason why a good chuck of the posters were happy that Tasunke was dead because that would make the day more intersting. Because they are right that tasunke was going to get lyched.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Well the only point that I cross-posted on that I want to comment on is Serdoa's idea that I shot Tasunke because he pissed me off. Well that would not make sense because Ryan pissed me off more. I was thinking about weather or not to shoot Tasunke or Ryan.

[Serdoa]

Most of the items on that list are only useful to village. So it would be hard to use for a villager effectively as those only a couple of items to steal that can belong to the mafia. If the village steals from village nothing really happens asides from confusion. Which is very likely. But scum can always just try steal from village--trading their okay item from something great like the fool card or the hold-out pistol.

It's only slightly scummy and that's why Azza could not lose to Tasunke's antics.

But why waste the pistol in that case? You say that Tasunke would have been lynched anyhow. But if that is the case, wasting the Day-Vig is not helping. If you would say you believed in Azza being a villager I could understand you. But you yourself say that you believe Azza to be scum. Why would you shoot Tasunke in that case, why not Azza? Even if you don't believe both, why not Azza? Tasunke could be verified tomorrow depending on if another vig shows up or not. Or by the nightkill. Either way, the shot was not necessary.

Also, I don't think Azza is scum. Wouldn't it be better in that case to get the card from novice? novice would have to admit on Day 2 that he was robbed, what we might or might not believe. That would be so great for wolfs, as they could expect more fights between me and him. There was no reason to prevent that by trying to steal from Tasunke. Even if he had the gun as he stated (though it would help village to steal the gun as he could use it tonight already instead of the vig having to pass it on tonight).

A) I am judging him on the action. I think it was a pro town action. I do think it was a bit hasty, IE: Tas didn't get a chance to explain himself, but I think we would have all lynched him no matter the explanation because in the end he lied. This has nothing to do with the outcome but the action. We were going to lynch Tasunke. By day killing him while we still had time to discuss the lynch MJW did well. He saved the town a mislynch and provided us time to reorganize. I do not think scum would do that. I think scum would save the tommy gun. I think scum would day kill someone who was less likely to get lynched. I give MJW a strong village lean.

Why? How was it pro-town? And I don't ask because I want to question you but because I honestly don't see it. Why should we lynch Tasunke? Yes, we had at that point not thought it completely through, but the first players already asked to lynch neither of the two claimers. Because it made no sense to lynch Tasunke (real vig could claim Day3 if Tasunke didn't die in the night). And only slight sense to lynch Azza - because as well it would get confirmed if he lied or not latest at the next day, even though that wouldn't confirm his alignment.

So, taking this knowledge into account, knowledge that was written in the thread BEFORE MJW fired his shot, how was he saving us a mislynch? Yes, he shot early enough to give us time to talk about other players. I'd happily do that as scum if I am considered town in exchange for that. And saving the tommy-gun would actually not change anything. It is just another kill on the village, either now or later. Yes, theoretically you can get village in a bad situation where we believe we can still win but in reality can't due to the day-vig. But in practice that is meaningless. Scum does not need to surprise us, scum just need to get us killed. And if they get someone considered town, that is much stronger than a day-kill. We've seen that in several games now.

[zakalwe]

I agree that Uberfish has NOT been an engaged villager this game. He's been quite detached IMO.

I have also been somewhat detached in this game. So have you, it seems. So maybe one of us is scum (it's not me). Or maybe there's just something about this game that fails to engage us.

I'm fine with MJW's defense for now, so I'll go with Merovech. Still willing to lynch Mattimeo, too, just for the record.

[Lewwyn]

A) I am judging him on the action. I think it was a pro town action. I do think it was a bit hasty, IE: Tas didn't get a chance to explain himself, but I think we would have all lynched him no matter the explanation because in the end he lied. This has nothing to do with the outcome but the action. We were going to lynch Tasunke. By day killing him while we still had time to discuss the lynch MJW did well. He saved the town a mislynch and provided us time to reorganize. I do not think scum would do that. I think scum would save the tommy gun. I think scum would day kill someone who was less likely to get lynched. I give MJW a strong village lean.

Why? How was it pro-town? And I don't ask because I want to question you but because I honestly don't see it. Why should we lynch Tasunke? Yes, we had at that point not thought it completely through, but the first players already asked to lynch neither of the two claimers. Because it made no sense to lynch Tasunke (real vig could claim Day3 if Tasunke didn't die in the night). And only slight sense to lynch Azza - because as well it would get confirmed if he lied or not latest at the next day, even though that wouldn't confirm his alignment.

So, taking this knowledge into account, knowledge that was written in the thread BEFORE MJW fired his shot, how was he saving us a mislynch? Yes, he shot early enough to give us time to talk about other players. I'd happily do that as scum if I am considered town in exchange for that. And saving the tommy-gun would actually not change anything. It is just another kill on the village, either now or later. Yes, theoretically you can get village in a bad situation where we believe we can still win but in reality can't due to the day-vig. But in practice that is meaningless. Scum does not need to surprise us, scum just need to get us killed. And if they get someone considered town, that is much stronger than a day-kill. We've seen that in several games now.

I think you are dealing with confirmatin bias. You know now that Tasunke was a villager. The village did not. Speak for yourself about what you would do. I was going to vote to lynch Tasunke or Azza and I was pretty much locked into Tasunke. You're talking about a nonexistant scenario. The town was geared up to lynch Tasunke because he was caught red handed. He lied, I was going to lynch him. Are you honestly suggesting the town wasn't going to lynch him? Becuase you're fooling yourself if you think that. So given that, MJW did us a favor, it was pro-town IMO. I mean I don't really know what else to say.

[Lewwyn]

I agree that Uberfish has NOT been an engaged villager this game. He's been quite detached IMO.

I have also been somewhat detached in this game. So have you, it seems. So maybe one of us is scum (it's not me). Or maybe there's just something about this game that fails to engage us.

I'm fine with MJW's defense for now, so I'll go with Merovech. Still willing to lynch Mattimeo, too, just for the record.

Uberfish has 24 posts. That is half of you and I. I have not been detached in any way. I consider you to be withdrawn in your tone. But not detatched. That's why I'm voting for you atm. I think you are actually very careful. You're paying attention, but you are studied in your tone. I consider that wolfish.

[Lewwyn]

I mean... Azza has more posts than uberfish.