WW 19 Game Thread - Mobster Mayhem - GAME OVER

[Serdoa]

1. It would be worse for Azza to get lyched as Tasunke would be shown to be a lair. This would cause a double-mislych which is wolf. Unless Azza is a wolf. But if I were a wolf Azza would have to be one to. And that seems unlikely for the reason waterbat said.

You didn't know that Tasunke is lying. Azza could have been lying as well. Considering both are town and you are wolf you knew that one was lying (and in that case Tasunke is more likely). But if you are town, how would you know which one is lying? You don't, so you also don't know that Azzas kill would lead to a double-mislynch. Heck, you even don't know it yet. And you have called Azza in a recent post one of your suspects. So by your own words you consider him scum. But you still knew that killing him and Tasunke would lead to a double-mislynch? I don't get it. For me that reads like a wolf who is tripping over knowledge that he shouldn't have if he was town.

2. Tasunke would have never avoided getting lyched. That's why he would not get a night action. Why? The 50%/50% chance of hitting a wolf is far too tempting for the village to resist. So ether azza or Tasunke is going to die. And its pretty clear from the voting that azza would win unless he did something extremely silly.

I don't agree. Ryan was considering other targets. I was. I believe that the reasoning we have given (Day 3 confirms it without us needing to potentially mislynch) would have been good enough to sway people. But of course that is my stance and you don't have to agree on that.

3. I don't remember saying that azza was scum before tasunke died. I'm just said that although azza had scumism things about him (lockpick, lurking) those things are not even close to tasunke. I can say why I don't like Tasunke at all very much for the billionith time if you want me to.

I said you had a scum-lean on Azza. You say that Azza had scummy things (lockpick, lurking) on him. Seems for me like different words for the same thing.

But honestly, no.1 is enough for me. Your whole explanation always considers in some part knowledge that you should not have had if you were a villager.

MJW

[uberfish]

I think the shooting of tasunke was justifiable. Tasunke had been caught lying when he was asked to full claim properly and thus signed his own death warrant. I don't think I'd have bought any explanation from Tasunke about why he had been lying as village. Because he'd made an unspecified item claim on day 1 in order to get heat off himself. However, I have killed a town lynchbait target before as a scum vigilante in order to get town cred and get the extra kill on the board in a non suspicious fashion, so I'm not clearing MJW for it. (Although I feel MJW is more village leaning, due to post content, than Azza is.)

After thinking it over I actually believe waterbat's ploy to fakeclaim with the bomb is something he could come up with as village, and if scum have one of the anti-nightkills item in the form of the jailer it's more likely that the village would have the other two (bomb and vest.)

Not sure I like zakalwe's latest maneuverings - particularly putting MJW on his list of people he wants lynched when he admits he doesn't have anything on him:

I've been thinking a bit and I think I want to lynch one of the M's - Mattimeo, Merovech, or MJW. I'll elaborate in a bit on Mattimeo and Merovech. As for MJW, I can't point to much that is specifically scummy, but I know he is very good at staying in character as scum, and I haven't got any great town vibes from him either. I think the Tommy Gun would make sense in the hands of scum, as an end-game weapon. Might make sense in town hands, too, but we already got the vig.

And the attempt to link Merovech to Waterbat when we know already that interaction tells aren't fully reliable even after one of the two involved players has flipped.

@lewwyn: I probably look detached because I can't keep up with the spam this game + the fact that two of my main suspects (bigger/tasunke) managed to get themselves vigged.

[Selrahc]

Tasunke would have been lynched. It's a pretty much sure thing.
There are many things a wolf can do with a day vig, even a day vig with a publically unveiled identity, but preventing a mislynch strikes me as amongst the least useful.

It's a rerun of yesterday basically. Serdoa is wanting to lynch MJW over an action I find not just understandable, but quite laudable and which gives me a solid village lean on him.(Although I am willing to recant on proven villager status for him. This could have been a trust game by the wolves I suppose).

[uberfish]

crossposted with serdoa, checking the logic in his first point.

[Serdoa]

I think you are dealing with confirmatin bias. You know now that Tasunke was a villager. The village did not. Speak for yourself about what you would do. I was going to vote to lynch Tasunke or Azza and I was pretty much locked into Tasunke. You're talking about a nonexistant scenario. The town was geared up to lynch Tasunke because he was caught red handed. He lied, I was going to lynch him. Are you honestly suggesting the town wasn't going to lynch him? Becuase you're fooling yourself if you think that. So given that, MJW did us a favor, it was pro-town IMO. I mean I don't really know what else to say.

Yeah, like I said, we certainly have a different view on that. I don't want to believe that villagers are really that lazy and dumb that they can't even realize that lynching their potential vig makes no sense if they can confirm with 100% certainty the next day if he lies or not.

And btw: How was Tasunke caught red-handed Lewwyn? He lied - but you didn't know that till he was shot.

[Serdoa]

Tasunke would have been lynched. It's a pretty much sure thing.
There are many things a wolf can do with a day vig, even a day vig with a publically unveiled identity, but preventing a mislynch strikes me as amongst the least useful.

It's a rerun of yesterday basically. Serdoa is wanting to lynch MJW over an action I find not just understandable, but quite laudable and which gives me a solid village lean on him.(Although I am willing to recant on proven villager status for him. This could have been a trust game by the wolves I suppose).

Actually you are misrepresenting some facts: I didn't want to lynch novice yesterday. I wanted to lynch you. Unfortunately town decided it is much better to lynch an obvious villager. And I don't want to lynch MJW over his action today, I want to lynch him for the reasonings he gives for this action which do indicate that he used knowledge he shouldn't have had.

[uberfish]

@Serdoa

Azza claimed that Tasunke didn't have an item. He wouldn't do that as scum unless he knew that Tasunke was really lying (because Azza would himself be lynched for lying if it turned out that Tasunke was telling the truth.) Therefore Tasunke was lying irrespective of Azza's alignment.

I guess we're really in 90% territory here, because Azza could conceivably have been the unlucky target of a Bigger jailing action or be running a crazy scum gambit, but honestly 90% is enough for most people to lynch and move on.

@MJW

1. It would be worse for Azza to get lyched as Tasunke would be shown to be a lair. This would cause a double-mislych which is wolf. Unless Azza is a wolf. But if I were a wolf Azza would have to be one to. And that seems unlikely for the reason waterbat said.

I don't follow this. Why is YOUR alignment linked to Azza's?

[Serdoa]

@Serdoa

Azza claimed that Tasunke didn't have an item. He wouldn't do that as scum unless he knew that Tasunke was really lying (because Azza would himself be lynched for lying if it turned out that Tasunke was telling the truth.) Therefore Tasunke was lying irrespective of Azza's alignment.

I guess we're really in 90% territory here, because Azza could conceivably have been the unlucky target of a Bigger jailing action or be running a crazy scum gambit, but honestly 90% is enough for most people to lynch and move on.

Yeah, but with that uncertainty AND the possibility to get confirmation without having to lynch either, why would you not wait till the next day? You might be right that village still would have lynched Tasunke though (I guess I would have been ignored as I was yesterday). But even than, I'd expect that someone having a gun would think a little bit longer about it and what could happen. I mean sure, if we lynch and hit the wrong target, oh well, it happens. But if he shoots and hits the wrong one? Even if the chance is only 10% that Azza was roleblocked or is scum, it should imo be enough to prevent him from shooting and risking two villagers (or three in case of a bastard GM) for no gain except 24h less discussion on Tasunke.

Together with the reasoning he gives (that as I said reads for me like he based his decision on knowledge he could not possess when he shot as villager) I don't believe him that he is a villager. His reasoning and his action fit much better a scum who knew the alignment of the other players and therefore could shoot without risk, as he knew he would only kill a lying villager.

[waterbat]

Waterbat, before we lynch you, could you fix the links from the scraper to the individual posts? That would be immensely helpful.

Done!

The reply buttons also work. (using it now for this post) the little arrows in nested quotes work - images work.

any html link (a with href attribute) or image (img with src attribute) that does NOT have a url that starts with http (to cover http or https) is assigned to http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/. i think this should get them all.

if i did something weird and posted a relative link within a post , it would also get replaced:
[img]RBClassic/LogoRBClassicBlackBeauty.png[/img]

[waterbat]

if i did something weird and posted a relative link within a post , it would also get replaced:
[img]RBClassic/LogoRBClassicBlackBeauty.png[/img]

heh forum doesnt let me do something weird. oh well.