As a French person I feel like it's my duty to explain strikes to you. - AdrienIer

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[SPOILERS] scooter, pindicator, and Huayna Capac try some fast Zulu cuisine

One of the infamous Big War Screenshots:

[Image: t89_preturn_front.JPG]

(Pindicator, if you run Win7, you really should try putting these together in the Win7 version of Paint. I made this in 3 minutes)

Ok, the only thing I missed was the two south forests - bottom one is a worker/axe pair, the other is just a worker.

Ok, so he has 7 units able to hit the gold next turn, including 3 axes. Thankfully he has virtually no promos except for that random C1 archer. So let's think through what we need to place onto the gold

First off, we're going to need to commit an Impi to cover the southwestern chopping worker. He does have a single chariot in range of that tile, so the axe on that tile is obviously better served guarding the gold. However, it does not need to be a strong one. How about we move our 2.1Str C1 Impi to cover the worker. That's more than enough to deter the chariot strike I believe (he won't get impossible odds, but he's being very conservative here).

That means we have a lot of options. One thing we could do is try to bait him into attacking the gold hill - in such a way as he would take casualties but likely capture the hill, only to get easily finished off the following turn. This could be done by placing something like 2 unpromoted axes and a C1 Impi on the hill. He likely loses something like 4-5 units and makes it onto the hill with 2 or so wounded units which are easily dispatched by chariots + GG Axe.

Or we could just have a show of force and stack the hill.

Also, we should chop out another axe. Those 3 workers can chop the north roaded forest and we can get out another axe, followed by the southwestern worker finishing his chop next turn which will get us yet another axe. That should be pretty solid for us.

Just spit-balling ideas here to get us started. I'll take a closer look at this in a bit. Any preliminary thoughts? I don't think I see attacks being profitable this turn. It's really unfortunate that he got that forest growth 1W of the gold.

The thing that sucks here is he's pretty obviously just interested in stalling us until he gets elephants. I'm not sure there's much we can do about this.
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(January 17th, 2013, 17:15)scooter Wrote: It's really unfortunate that he got that forest growth 1W of the gold.

The thing that sucks here is he's pretty obviously just interested in stalling us until he gets elephants. I'm not sure there's much we can do about this.

How much luck can that guy get?

Anyway, what would chariots attacking his archer / axe pair look like? Vs archer would be a likely loss, but i think we would get odds vs his axe. Considering he has spears i dunno if our chariots will get a better look.

Right now i like the idea of putting a token force in the hill and bleeding him for taking it. But i worry that he could weaken the axes with archers and then ein at minimal loss. Combined witg the chariot idea though...

I'll noodle it some more and we'll chat tonight
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Yeah, I've had similar thoughts too re: chariot attack and him suiciding archers. For defending the gold - we'll need to approximate how much damage 2 archers would do to the top 2 axes and go from there.
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Archer & Axe vs. Axe Defending On Hill

Surviving HPOdds of HPOdds To Win vs Axe
01.04%0%
21.30%0.14%
162.74%0.55%
305.45%3.50%
4410.07%11.27%
5816.72%14.04%
7223.58%40.35%
8625.03%59.18%
10014.08%75.01%

If he attacks our axe on a hill with his archer he has about a 1% chance of winning. Above it is broken down into what the HP outcomes likely are and then what our odds of surviving against a follow-up axe attack would be.

There's a 39.11% chance that we will survive an archer attack with enough HP to have >50% odds against a follow-up axe. One of his archers is also C1 - against that archer the odds of surviving with enough HP for >50% odds against an axe drop to 34.94%.

Next thing to look at is the chariots attacking against his archer/axe pair.

Chariot vs archer is about as expected: 25.64% chance to win outright. But more importantly, the odds that we will inflict enough damage so that the axe is the next top defender is

Huh, the chariot part is gonna have to wait til later. Something came up
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doesn't render well at all on firefox, but I think that's the table shows HP after being attacked by the archer, and subsequent odds of suviving the axe attack?

So the weighted average of those numbers is 38% chance of overall survival?
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Chariot vs. Archer // Chariot vs. Axe

Okay, this one i'm not so confident on because I haven't really delved into combat formulas and odds all that much before. (Cynheard, I couldn't do this without your formula.)

But the odds of us attack Chariot vs. his C1 archer on the forest are about 22.66%
Odds of us against his axe on that tile is a lot better - 72.87%

The super-important question is: what are the odds of us doing enough damage with the first chariot that the second chariot gets the axe as top defender? To that I have another table (one that I will remember to close tags on):

Archer HPOdds Of 1st Chariot Damaging ToChariot Odds Vs.
1006.66%22.66%
8613.30%37.25%
6416.48%69.93%
4616.21%85.70%
2813.88%95.37%
1010.81%99.70%

This is the part where I'm a little shaky: finding what level we have to damage the archer for the axe to become top defender for the 2nd chariot. If we just compare the percentage odds to win (which I would intuitively do, but I think I've heard there's some oddities with how it choose top defender, especially when first strikes are involved), then our first chariot needs to damage the archer to 46hp or less in order for the axe to become top defender. The odds of that happening are 63.57% So what are the odds then of both the first chariot damaging the archer enough and the second chariot killing the axe? That would be slightly worse than a coin flip: 46.32%
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Math Orgy up in here!

(Looks much better, too)
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(January 17th, 2013, 23:28)Ceiliazul Wrote: Math Orgy up in here!

(Looks much better, too)

lol
The lesson is always close your tags
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Well, pbem45 discussion took longer than i thought so I'm too tired to do a full write up.

We took the chariot shot and ended up not damaging his archer enough the first go round. We did clean it up so the hammer exchange wasn't too awful (25h killed & 30h lost). More importantly is he has 1 less unit to throw against our axes next turn. 2 axes & 1 impi joined hte chariot on the gold mine. We're chopping out another axe this turn, and our GG axe is staying in the shadows. We need a little bit of luck this turn, otherwise the end comes a little bit faster...
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(January 17th, 2013, 23:03)pindicator Wrote: This is the part where I'm a little shaky: finding what level we have to damage the archer for the axe to become top defender for the 2nd chariot. If we just compare the percentage odds to win (which I would intuitively do, but I think I've heard there's some oddities with how it choose top defender, especially when first strikes are involved), then our first chariot needs to damage the archer to 46hp or less in order for the axe to become top defender. The odds of that happening are 63.57% So what are the odds then of both the first chariot damaging the archer enough and the second chariot killing the axe? That would be slightly worse than a coin flip: 46.32%

IIRC, the game chooses top defender based on the unit's current strength: it ignores First Strikes and the disadvantages of HP damage. So a 21HP Knight defends above a 100HP Warrior, even though the 100HP warrior is massively more likely to survive and do damage.
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