The Dark arts - C&D Master Thread

[kjn]

Hmmm.. did the person that logged in after the turn roll (to t97) grab demos?

I logged in to grab them after Holy Rome whipped a citizen:

Thanks!

[kjn]

Univers performed a 6-to-5 whip. Their power shrank with 1000 from this, since they dropped to 39 total pop.

[kjn]

I managed to log into the game after CivPlayers had whipped their cities on T97, but before they ended turn, and grab the demos:

Of note is that we can confirm CivPlayers as the current rival worst as of late T97 - they whipped from 29 total pop to 24 (loss of 2000 power), and rival worst in power dropped from 62000 to 60000.

Population analysis tells us they did one 8->5 whip and one 6->4 whip. Top cities no longer shows Tenochtitlan, so that city is size 5 now.

The analysis of the new turn is currently being started.

[Boldly Going Nowhere]

I managed to log into the game after CivPlayers had whipped their cities on T97, but before they ended turn, and grab the demos:

Of note is that we can confirm CivPlayers as the current rival worst as of late T97 - they whipped from 29 total pop to 24 (loss of 2000 power), and rival worst in power dropped from 62000 to 60000.

Population analysis tells us they did one 8->5 whip and one 6->4 whip. Top cities no longer shows Tenochtitlan, so that city is size 5 now.

The analysis of the new turn is currently being started.

That 8->5 whip sounds like a settler to me. What tech do we have them researching most recently? I can't think of anything else that makes sense. This makes me want to get something done on the border agreement, but they're just stalling on that. It is possible that they could use this settler (if that's what it is) to take the ivory spot. That could be problematic if we allowed that to happen.

[kjn]

T98 - 425 BC

Cliff's Notes: WPC grew 1, to 22 pop. The Germans built an axe. Apolyton grew 4, to 42 pop, and researched a classical tech. CivFr grew 2, to 43 pop, and received land points. CivPlayers grew 2, to 26 pop, and researched Horseback Riding. CFC grew 2 pop, to 42, and received land points for Raj. Univers grew 1, to 40 pop.

Total unknown power increases of 10000, an axe and a chariot or spear.

Demos and top cities:

Score table

Team	Score change	Pop	Tech	Land
RB	22	2 (+1; 48 total)
WPC	3	3 (+1; 22 total)
Apolyton	21	9 (+4; 42 total)	12 (classical)
CivFr	11	5 (+2; 43 total)		6 (9 tiles; 90 total)
CivPlayers	16	5 (+2; 26 total)	12 (Horseback Riding)
CFC	10	4 (+2; 42 total)		6 (Raj 8 tiles; 78 total)
Univers	3	3 (+1; 40 total)

Score analysis

F8 analysis gives 12 new global pop. GNP analysis shows that one of our neighbours now know Horseback Riding.

CFC: APTmod data shows that Mantra popped borders and claimed 8 tiles for CFC on T78 (and then they claimed an additional 18 with two more cities on T80 and 81), and the map shows that Terasvin grew to size 8 and Daivagasi grew to size 6.

WPC: WPC increased their power with 2000, and growing a pop point to 22 and building a totem pole matches with that. This is confirmed by that they have increased their culture output from +5 to +6 as per APTmod data.

CivPlayers: The map shows that Tlaxcala is size 3 now. GNP analysis shows that one team has teched HBR, and APTmod data shows it for no team which we have graphs on. That leaves CivPlayers by simple elimination, together with an unknown city growing. Rival worst in power also rose with at least 11000, and it was CivPlayers as of late T97. That said, the only known team with Archery is still WPC, but CivPlayers has a large gold stockpile for deficit research (233g) that they're using now that they have an academy in their capital, as well as comparatively small costs.

CivFr: CivFr settled their sixth city on T78, and receive land points for this. The top cities screen shows their capital grew to size 12, and population growth analysis shows they grew another city to size 3. They also received a some additional amount of land points, for what I guess is their second city expanding to third-ring borders.

Univers: A pop increase to 40.

Apolyton: The presumed hardest last. We have 4 pop growths left to assign as per F8, and they give Apolyton 9 points, just enough for another classical tech for them in 3t. Of special interest is the top cities screen - it shows a size 9 city founded on 2720 BC, and the only city founded that turn was Apolyton's second city. Remember my earlier analysis that Apolyton didn't use their first great scientist for an academy in their capital?

I was half right - they did use their scientist for an academy, but in their second city, not their capital. At a guess, their second city is their Gourmet Menu-equivalent. That's the only way it could get enough culture to beat out Mansa's Muse.

Power analysis

Rival total power increased with 34000. CFC increased their power with 1000 (pop), and WPC with 2000 (pop and a totem pole). Rival best increased with 6000, which APTmod confirms is still the Germans. Further known power increases are 2000 to Apolyton, 1000 to CivFr, 11000 to CivPlayers (rival worst), and 1000 to Univers; all from pop except 10000 to CivPlayers for Horseback Riding.

That leaves 10000 in power to unknown teams, at a guess an axe and a chariot or spear. Or Apolyton teched either Iron Working or Horseback Riding.

[waterbat]

I filled out foreign prod and foreign prod history for t98.

out of the 3 cities that appear to have built something, none seem to be buildings. (especially surprised at KwaDuk.... in Spanish land - they lost 44 hammers, but it wasnt a building in their size 1 city?)

[kjn]

Thanks! One possibility for KwaDukuza is a chopped worker.

Apolyton did a 3->2 whip before ending their turn. I decided to note down their newest tech as Iron Working, but another alternative is that they've teched Priesthood and Currency for a big discount on Code of Laws.

[kalin]

HBR sounds like aggression to me. Why would one research such an expensive tech? I guess you can use it defensively too, but it seems to me that there are better options in that case.

kjn, do we know how long it took them to research it? That is, was it before or after we met? If before, then there may be other target, otherwise... walls in BbB and spears... Given that they wanted a NAP with cooldown period, I'd guess we are not the target.

Kalin

[Shoot the Moon]

Civ players researching HBR certainly isn't a good sign...

EDIT: crosspost with kalin

[kjn]

HBR sounds like aggression to me. Why would one research such an expensive tech? I guess you can use it defensively too, but it seems to me that there are better options in that case.

kjn, do we know how long it took them to research it? That is, was it before or after we met? If before, then there may be other target, otherwise... walls in BbB and spears... Given that they wanted a NAP with cooldown period, I'd guess we are not the target.

Hard to say. It took them 11t since their last tech (which was Monarchy in 4t), but they took their time to build up a proper stockpile of gold first.

Here's a timeline:

T83: Monotheism (probably)
T87: Monarchy (confirmed), revolt
T91: met us
T93: 96 gold
T94: 157 gold
T95: 220 gold
T96: 282 gold
T97: 258 gold
T98: 233 gold

So they've been at +62gpt over the tree turns since we teched Currency, and at -25gpt when teching. Pretty low costs, but they're ORG, have five courthouses, and a small military.

I actually think they 2.5-turned HBR once they had built the academy in their capital on T96. The top GNP increased to 234 late on T97, when I logged in after their whips, so I'm pretty sure they're in the 200 GNP-club. And they have enough funds for another 8 or so turns of straight teching - should be enough for them to get Archery, Mathematics, and Construction.

I think we need to put most of those wealth hammers this turn into some spearmen and more war scooters. And get some walls in Brick by Brick too.