Insane Cop Posse: a ww minigame

[Mattimeo]

Damn, this is confusing AWESOME

[BRickAstley]

Damn, this is confusing

Yeah, I agree.

I feel like there are currently too many permutation to get much of a fixed read, other than tasunke being currently confirmed to be town of some sort. Uber and Matt have been throwing out all of the possible scenarios, and in my opinion they're all helpful, but at this point I think we've reached the limit of what we can figure out based on night 1 scans alone. So, I wanna try some regular scumhunting for a bit.

I stil think that Matt is acting like the guilty party here. He looks to be throwing out a lot of information that isn't very helpful, or just downright confusing.

Other randomness I just figured out: a guilty read is actually more likely to be an indication of innocence (insane, 3/4 paranoid, scum) than guilt (sane, 1/4 paranoid).

Care to explain what this means Matt? I don't understand the fractions of paranoid, and scum can very well give whatever result they want, guilty or innocent.

[uberfish]

Spent the last 20 minutes trying to figure out a game breaking combination of lynch/scans but I can't find one. even if we were to lynch Matt for example and he flipped town, I wouldn't know if I was the sane or naive cop so wouldn't know if my N2 scan result could be trusted.

Admittedly there are more permutations where Brick can be scum than Q but I'm just reading Q's posts as scummier than brick's.

preview edit: Brick, what's your view on Q and myself?

[BRickAstley]

Uber, I'm torn about my read on you. You do seem like you're trying to help the village by putting forth a lot of information and analysis. You have come up with some ideas that seem to me to have been obviously flawed when you made them (i.e. the is matt is scum i have to be insane issue), but it's looking to me more like an innocent mistake while analyzing for town, rather than a scum being caught spinning lies. So town lean for now.

Q seems reasonably scummy, in not giving justification for his supposed logic behind the matt lynch. I'm willing to wait for his response before I commit to him being one way or the other though.

[Qgqqqqq]

I'm sorry I thought I was clear on that - under the assumption that whichever we lynch is innocent (we win if guilty) then lynching someone who has more reads on them will tell us more about their sanity/scumminess.

[BRickAstley]

The thing is Q, can you quantify that? We get a decent amount of information no matter who we lynch, barring tasunke i think, so just saying we get info isn't a particularly convincing case. Let's say we lynch you, even with only one result on you. Look at what we still get:

Possible orientations IF Q is village:

BRick: (Seer, Naive, Scum)
Matt: (Seer, Fool, Naive, Scum)
Q: (Seer, Fool, Paranoid)
Tas: (Seer, Fool, Paranoid)
Uber: (Seer, Fool, Naive, Scum)

vs.

Possible Orientations if Matt is lynched and is vilage:

BRick: (Seer, Fool, Naive, Scum)
Matt: (Seer, Fool, Naive)
Q: (Fool, Paranoid, Scum)
Tas: (Seer, Fool, Paranoid)
Uber: (Seer, Naive, Scum)

Now we can make assumptions as to the layout of these results, but unless I'm missing something big, I don't see that Matt will give us significantly more information based simply on scan results alone.

[Bigger]

vote count:

Qgqqq(3) - Tasunke, uberfish, Mattimeo
Mattimeo - BrickAstley,
Uberfish - Qgqqq

25 hours until lynch

[uberfish]

Damn, this is confusing

Yeah, I agree.

I feel like there are currently too many permutation to get much of a fixed read, other than tasunke being currently confirmed to be town of some sort. Uber and Matt have been throwing out all of the possible scenarios, and in my opinion they're all helpful, but at this point I think we've reached the limit of what we can figure out based on night 1 scans alone. So, I wanna try some regular scumhunting for a bit.

I stil think that Matt is acting like the guilty party here. He looks to be throwing out a lot of information that isn't very helpful, or just downright confusing.

Brick you are contradicting yourself here. Is Matt being helpful or isn't he?

[Mattimeo]

Other randomness I just figured out: a guilty read is actually more likely to be an indication of innocence (insane, 3/4 paranoid, scum) than guilt (sane, 1/4 paranoid).

Care to explain what this means Matt? I don't understand the fractions of paranoid, and scum can very well give whatever result they want, guilty or innocent.

Ways to obtain an incorrect guilty read:
Insane
Paranoid hitting town (3/4 chance)
Scum making it up

Ways to obtain a correct guilty read:
Sane
Paranoid hitting scum (1/4 chance)

[BRickAstley]

Damn, this is confusing

Yeah, I agree.

I feel like there are currently too many permutation to get much of a fixed read, other than tasunke being currently confirmed to be town of some sort. Uber and Matt have been throwing out all of the possible scenarios, and in my opinion they're all helpful, but at this point I think we've reached the limit of what we can figure out based on night 1 scans alone. So, I wanna try some regular scumhunting for a bit.

I stil think that Matt is acting like the guilty party here. He looks to be throwing out a lot of information that isn't very helpful, or just downright confusing.

Brick you are contradicting yourself here. Is Matt being helpful or isn't he?

Hah, yup, that is a contradiction. I was writing and rewriting this as I was going through all of the posts and trying to run calculations myself, and my mind was changing with different stuff I was realizing or figuring or saying screw it on.

My current opinion is that the process of figuring is mostly good, but Matt's attempts in particular do seem rather tryhard and more confusing compared to the rest.