RB PBEM #1 - Mehmed (SPOILERS!)

[Dreylin]

t35 - Bear attacks and Scout dies against the odds. Bear on 0.3 health, but when the Warrior moves he discovers there are two Lions lurkng as well. Fortunatly he'd decided to steer a path around:



Out in the NW, Bear Slayer continues exploring and runs into a Wolf - should be safe even still at 0.8/1. More exploration may have to wait until the Chariots start rolling!

So lets have a look at Istanbul:



If I'm going to make a run on the Oracle, I need to increase the hammer output here, and for that I need another Worker. Now with 12base & 17overflow hammers I can make the Worker in 3t, but if next turn I switch the grass forest to a lake then in 3turns I'll be at 39/40 and can run a max-overflow whip into the next build. (Of course in order to make that The Oracle, I'll have to research Priesthood next after Masonry, so a small change of plans there.) I may later do the same with the Granary - which since it's doubled is a 5t build - but I'll see about that.

Edirne whips it's Granary this turn - growth again in 2t - and will probably start a Monument next turn since there's been no religion spread yet. Daisy has finished the first cottage and moves to start a second. Second Settler is in position to found next turn, and Tim has just finished the road connection.

Foriegn news (which of course you already know): athlete founds his second city (and btw has Writing), while Ruff is also getting greedy, but for Wonders and has build a big Wall around his Henge (maybe he has Stone?).

[Dreylin]

t36 - Masonry in, Priesthood in 2t. Istanbul reconfigs to fall 1 short of a 3t Worker. Edirne finises Granary & starts Monument. Ankara is founded & starts Granary. Tim starts on a river cottage.

Bear Slayer survives the Wolf attack on 0.4/1 and moves to a forested hill to heal. Wanderer (my Eastern Warrior) skirts the Zoo Valley.

Ruff has founded his first city, while I can see Sooooo's scout outside the borders of Edirne ... in a desert.

[Dreylin]

Message from sooooo:

Hi Dreylin,

My scout is going to die next turn on the way to your party! *cry*

I think I'll be starting research into alphabet soon. Do you think you'll be teching anything that you would want to trade for that?

sooooo

And my reply:

Hi sooooo,

That's a shame, but the animals do seem to be on the march at the
moment ... in the valley NE of your Scout, I just lost a Scout myself
to a Bear, who has two Lions keeping him company. If a miracle happens
and your Scout survives, I'll warn you that there's a Lion lurking
somewhere in the Hills to his West as well.

As far as tech goes, I'm not sure what I could offer for Alphabet
right now. I've been messing around with lower techs and haven't
actually started on Writing yet. I'm sure that in time there will be
an arrangement we can come to...

Dreylin II

I'm trying to be a bit disingenuous here by referring to "lower techs" and leave it open to interpretation whether I could mean bottom of the table or early grade. If sooooo has my demographics (which will be soon if not already) then he already knows from the culture graph that I founded Hinduism.

There's a likelihood that I will go for Iron Working soon in order to start chopping out my Pigs/Rice/Copper city, but there's a part of me thinking that if I did get one or both of Judaism & Confucianism that the Shwedagon Paya might be a worthwhile investment. Of course I don't have Gold, and know that mh & athlete will (or already do) so maybe that's not going to happen.

One comment about the map at this point: at least regarding my area, it looks like there won't be a lot of resource trading going on in this game. Other than the double-Spices to my East, all the resources seem to have shown up in one-offs.

[Dreylin]

t37 - an extremely uneventful turn ... infact I'm only writing this to make sure I keep ahead in the post counts....

[Dreylin]

t38 - Priesthood splash screen greets me; Monotheism in 3t. Hinduism has spread in Edirne ... right when I have a half-built Monument! Guess I won't be whipping that in, but will let it complete naturally. Speaking of whipping, Istanbul gets the rod and will put 35h of overflow into the next build. Ankara starts working its first Cottage with the intent to grow and either whip or chop in the Granary.

Wanderer finds a watery dead end at the North of Death Valley, maybe there's a route through to the East.



And there's an interesting development to the West as well:



I'll have to look in more detail when I have time, but it seems like it really messes with my intended dotmap and will have to be razed. Hopefully a couple of Chariots will be enough....

Oh, looks like Ruff has a Prophet; will have to consider what he might be planning to do with it since he currently has no religion.

[Dreylin]

A quick reply from sooooo:

OK, that's cool. Perhaps once I get alphabet (I haven't actually started it yet) then I could trade you writing itself. I have ignored the religious techs and fishing/sailing so far.

Of course last I checked he hadn't got Writing yet, but he's probably only a turn or so away. I don't think I'll reply right away since there are more interesting developments afoot....

[Dreylin]

So here's and interesting International development that is going to provoke a long analysis post from me ... you have been warned!

Dreylin,

Greetings. I think that all parties have met, or a close to meeting each other. I wanted to discuss how you see our two nations developing. From the parts of the map I can see, we will share a border, but, it appears that the majority of that border will not cause tensions (formed by mountain ranges and lakes from what I can see).

I would also like to discuss the possibility of tech trades - are you interested in setting up a long term partnership, short term goals or opportunistic trades as and when techs become available?

Regards,

Ruff

Right, the first thing we need to analyse is how the map is going to influence everyone's relationships. Borders are generally going to be short due to the Mountain/Lake barriers that segment the land - although the mid-size salt water regions (e.g. Banana Lake) could be interesting for amphibious operations. Based on what I know of the arrangement of players I'm certainly going to have a border with Ruff & athlete, sooooo I will likely have a border with in the NNE, and I may also have a border with mh in the NW depending how far/fast I reach in my expansion. Doesn't seem like a very good situation.

Ruff will have borders with just me & sooooo, and similarly athlete will only abutt mh & myself. The "wings" (sooooo & mh) are in a good defensive position being far away from at least two other civs. While it would be tempting to try and form an alliance with one of them, that would probably just end up with me being pincered in the middle between Ruff & athlete. My feeling is that in order to best ensure my defense, it is in my interest to ally with one of my immediate neighbours.

Now of the two I think Ruff would be a prefered choice for a long-term partner over athlete. Several reasons: his capital is further away meaning there is more space between us to expand into at a leisurely pace and find our natural borders. I have been eyeing up a land-grab to the NW and making that away from an ally is probably better than towards! Ruff has made more effort / had more luck in exploration so has a similar understanding of the shape of the map as I do, while it appear that athlete's exploration is only just getting going in earnest. Ruff has also been more communicative during this early period which is a good sign for the future. There's also the out of game reason that probably should not influence things too much but does; I'm a lot more familiar with Ruff as a player and as a person.

Before we go much further, let's look a bit further at what Ruff might be planning to do with his Great Prophet. Of course there's the usual three options: Shrine, Bulb, & Settle.

Shrine: Well Ruff doesn't actually have a religion yet, so an immediate shrine is out; however we do know that he has Masonry so he could be planning to grab Judaism in the next couple of turns and get an immediate Shrine in place. Something to ponder since I am also going for Judaism and Ruff is before me in the turn order.

Bulb: Looking at what I know right now of Ruff's tech situation, I can see that he does not have Monotheism or Writing (although he could be on the verge of either), but we do know that he has Masonry. With that in hand, he is stuck in the minor religious techs until he has all four. Once he's at that point, it's Monarchy without Writing, or Theology with - useful to confirm that a CoL bulb is not on the cards. Again though, this route depends on getting Monotheism, and how many of the other religious techs he has already.

Settle: 2h & 5g is quite strong this early in the game, and as Philosophical Gandhi this is probably quite a tempting option - particularly with 2 Wonders already pumping out the gpp.

Right now I would put my money on a settled Great Prophet, but we'll see if he finishes Monotheism in the next few turns.

Right, with that done, I'm going to go away and draft a letter and will report back shortly.

[Dreylin]

I have just replied with this (slightly editted to remove specific examples used):

Hi Ruff,

Sorry to not get back to you sooner; been busier at work than usual today, and of course the demogame shenanigans...!

There's a bit more work to do before everyone's in touch - I think sooooo & athlete will probably be the last to meet now that there's been that unfortunate Bear incident on my borders.

The map does seem designed to generate natural borders between the various civilisations with it's segmented nature. Of course there's the element of how many segments you can/want to claim and control out there as well!

I've been thinking about your question regarding tech trades, and am intrigued by your suggestion of forming a long-term partnership. How would you see it developing; towards a full-on alliance, a Gentlemans agreement, or something between the two with agreements on mid-term goals? I am fairly open at the moment.

Dreylin II.

Of course I sent that right before I read his public posting...!

On that; it is an interesting proposal, but I'm not sure how it could be accomplished practically without the opportunity for someone (multiple someones) to get shafted. It would also create several interesting races for the Wonders held by two of those techs....

[Dreylin]

So an interesting message from Ruff:

Dreylin,

I have proposed a 5-way tech trade in the common thread. Drop in and check it out.

I don't think that either of us wants a full on alliance at this stage - the game is just too new and no cliques have developed that need countering. That said, you do find yourself in the hot seat (middle, multiple shared borders) on this map and probably need to start thinking along those lines soon. I noted that you settled your first city towards me (sure - miles away, but still towards me) and that we could come to future border tensions.

I suppose, what I am saying is that I don't have any firm plans at present - lets keep discussing.

Also, you will notice that I got a Great Priest. I don't have any religion and a GA is just silly at this stage. I can settle him for hammers and coin but I think there is something else open for us ... I could sell him to you. The terms of the deal would have to be pretty good to balance out multiple turns of coin and hammer but it is something that we might want to discuss. Do you have any interest in such a deal?

Ruff

Let's look at this a bit at a time:

5-way trade: I have absolutely no idea how to respond to that, and I'm certainly not going to be the first to do so publicly. It seems like an attempt to perpetuate a level playing field and make sure that no-one gets ahead early. Not really sure how interested I am in it tbh.

So the second paragraph is a bit of a mess to be honest; it says neither of us is interested in a full alliance right now ... but maybe you should be (erm, didn't I just kind-of respond to his feelers of such?) The bit about settling towards him is a bit rich in my opinion - what, I'm not supposed to settle towards anyone?

The Great Prophet suggestion is an interesting one indeed, and definitely one worth exploring further ... if nothing else it might delay him doing anything with it for a couple of turns!

[Dreylin]

Well I'm sure you're getting this in two threads at the same time, but I was halfway through replying to Ruff when he sent me another message:

Dreylin,

I just re-read your email and noticed that you are interested in a long-term relationship. And then I reply that you aren't. Gee, the written word can cause problems. Sorry about the confusion.

How about we start slowly. Are you interested in a tech deal? I am setting my research to Maths and I would like to trade for one of the following:

HBR
Aesth
Monarchy

My preference is as stated. I am willing to throw in a small tech (fishing, hunting, agri, etc) to balance out any beaker difference.

Ruff

Which is basically a sectionated version of his 5-way proposal.

Ruff,

Yeah I saw your proposal just after my last reply; not sure what to make of it at the moment.

Well if you're sensitive to border tensions, then maybe we should start negotiations with a discussion of a border agreement (flashing back to Templars here). For the record though I didn't settle towards you; I settled to claim my pre-Calendar Happy resource, and I'm guessing there's a good chance you've done the same. Blame Sullla for placing mine in your direction! 9-)

Seriously though, let's start our discussions in earnest with consideration of your offer of a Great Prophet. As you probably surmised, I am very interested by this opportunity to pick up an early Shrine. One easy way to account for the Gold is for me to make a sustained 2gpt gift to you once Currency is in, with a lump sum to make up the pre-Currency turns. There's not as elegant a way to deal with the hammer difference, but maybe I could make an initial suggestion of a Settler? I could walk it to an agreed location, found the city and then turn over control if that would be more convenient.

OK, I just got your second message and it clears things up a bit, I have to confess I was bit confused by your second paragraph!

As far a tech tech deal is concerned I am certainly interested in principle, although it will take me a little while to be in a position to research any of those techs. I have not yet started Writing, and even if I were to pursue HBR as part of the deal, I need to prioritise Writing first for obvious reasons.

Dreylin II.

So I decided not to ignore his statement about borders, but to make it clear that it really wasn't an offensive settling, and that I thought it was a bit silly of him to note it at all.

Then the meat, a proposal for the Great Prophet. The gpt is a fair solution to the problem - the Shrine will make me that to start with, and more down the road - and it's also a little incentive for him to not declare War on me in the future. The Settler is an initial play, the offer to found the city for him saves on transit times, and also leads into what I suspect will be used to compensate: Land.

Yep, back to the border agreement; I think that my ceding to him some territory between our two civs is the way to resolve this issue. It may be a case that I give him the Spices/Corn city location - which is a lovely spot, but is a bit of a reach for me to found for myself (I would be thinking of the Plains hill on the end of the mountain range [note to self: add image later]). If so, I would try and negotiate for the second set of Spices as game-long gift ... which again starts to stitch our two civs together.