WW21 - The Professor Is Dead [game thread]

[Lewwyn]

Scum are happy with the vote split between Zak and Q. I also have town reads on Gazglum and Serdoa. (Gazglum more so than Serdoa). So let's assume:

zakalwe (4) - Gazglum, Lewwyn, Ryan, Q
Q (3) - novice, Serdoa, zakalwe
Gazglum (1) - Mattimeo
Serdoa (1) - Jkaen

Hm, this approach is superfluous with this few players. This is just a complicated way of saying that the scum are two of Zakalwe, Lewwyn, Ryan and Mattimeo.

Let's see what Mattimeo has to say.
Hm. I guess the chart above shows that if Zak is scum his most likely scum partner is Mattimeo. So there's that.

... Wow that's a lot of assumed innocence. I'm a lot less sure of Serdoa's innocence than you are apparently. I do agree about Gaz. Is that a typo when you list Zak as one of your possible four scum? Or are you just saying you think Gaz, Serdoa and yourself are innocent... Ok I get it.

I don't disagree about Mattimeo being scummy. He hasn't really given a good reason why he's voting for me, though I think he said something about me trying to intentionally divide the vote on Day 1. I'm only one person I didn't make everyone else vote Q or Zak they just happened to be the two most suspicious people for me that Day and apparently everyone else too.

I could get behind a mattimeo vote because I do think he's done nothing vilagery and I think his insistence Day 1 not to make a decision about the top two (I don't believe he even made a comment about how he felt about the two of them just that I was scummy because I suspected both of them). Going to finish reading first.

[Mattimeo]

More claims, please.

This despite only having a vague "I'm not vanilla" yourself?

Of course on of those wolves being content with a Zak vs Q showdown could very well be Mattimeo.

Yes, that's why I jumped on a third candidate:
a) as soon as I got home
b) with the expectation of the usual last minute scramble where anyone can be pushed up.

... Wow that's a lot of assumed innocence. I'm a lot less sure of Serdoa's innocence than you are apparently. I do agree about Gaz. Is that a typo when you list Zak as one of your possible four scum? Or are you just saying you think Gaz, Serdoa and yourself are innocent... Ok I get it.

Yeah, it was apparently a fancy way of saying 'everyone not on my list of innocents is scum'...

I could get behind a mattimeo vote because I do think he's done nothing vilagery and I think his insistence Day 1 not to make a decision about the top two

Despite the fact that 'not making a decision' was known to be functionally equivalent to 'voting for Qgqqqqq'?


I'm struggling to see Serdoa's point about Ryan being overly emotional. Maybe the first couple of joke posts? The rest really hasn't shown the over-abundance of self-pity and aggression that exemplified the previous game in particular.

[Lewwyn]

Alright, let's do a little analysis, then.

He then proceeds to rehash what has happened and then "look for Q's scum buddy" he's not looking for scum, he's looking for the scum buddy of the person he's voting for. He doesn't know Q's alignment! Do you think Village Zak would be "so sure"? Do you think he'd start throwing suspicion on people based on an alignment he doesn't know? But what does this achieve? It creates the aura of scumhunting. It also allows Zak to throw suspicion on me without voting for me because he's "still got to reaffirm Q's alignment". This way he gets to shed suspicion on himself, throw some on me and he doesn't have to take his vote of Q thereby endangering himself to a vote. He was under pressure and I think this was his response.

First of all, I have to say it feels like a bit of a setup that I am first criticized for not posting enough reasoning, and when I oblige I am promptly assaulted with accusations of trying too hard and throwing suspicion on people. Gazglum did specifically ask me what we would learn from Q's alignment. You're presenting it as if my post was an unprompted initiative, which is a little misleading. I also did cover both possible alignments, even if I made it clear that I was leaning scum, first and foremost.

And yeah, I was feeling pressure, maybe not at that point but certainly as the deadline approached. (I can't really recall the exact timeline here, to be honest.) Call me arrogant, but that mounting pressure on me only served to strengthen my belief that Q must be scum. And call me cynical, but to the extent that I had doubts, I couldn't really afford to show those, either, because my own ass was on the line.

Well. I just went back and reread the last line by Gaz again:

Maybe if you gave your reasoning behind your thoughts on who to look to next, I would feel more comfortable following your lead on this one. Until then, Zakalwe.

And I see your point. I was looking at it more as an impromptu response to pressure and Gaz did specifically ask "who to look to next". I can't believe I missed that earlier. It makes your whole scummy post less scummy. And honestly that was biggest thing driving me to vote for you.

Mattimeo

[Lewwyn]

Sorry, I could have been clearer there. First off is just probability: if my maths is right there are 15 possible scum pairings not including me. That’s 6 possible scum pairings out of Zak/Novice/Serdoa/Lewwyn; 10 if you assume one wolf of Matt/Ryan; compared to only the 1/15 chance of Ryan/Mattimeo.

Also I don’t think it likely that both wolves would have missed an opportunity to go along with the Q attack.

I think it’s a lot safer to assume wolves in the Q-voters than to assume there aren’t wolves Serdoa. I don’t understand why you seem so reluctant to go along with the idea, even as a thought experiment. Why are you so sure Zak can’t be scum? Or novice?

You lost me here. Are you saying that if Zak is scum then its more likely we have a second scum in those four? And while I agree with that if Zak is scum Ryan and Matt could still be scum too. I'm feeling a lot less sure about Zak now so I think its dangerous to pursue the idea of lynch Zak>find the next scum.

[Lewwyn]

As for your part about probability Gazglum: That seems mathematically sound, but what has it to do with them both being scum or not? Of course the chances are higher that you find 2 scum in 4 out of 7 players than in 2 out of 7. But if I spin that further down, with the same logic we can conclude that the chances that zak and I are scum are also only 1/15 so you should not pursue that angle either. And the same is true for novice and Lewwyn, so don't look at them... oh wait, no one left to actually be scum, guess the village wins

Yeah this is how I felt when I read your probabilities Gazglum. Every pairing is 1/15 so trying to hunt based on probabilities and not scum tells is folly.

[Lewwyn]

Just 12 hours left until the lynch unless I'm mistaken. I think Zak is a poor choice.

Fine I get it.

[Lewwyn]

More claims, please.

This despite only having a vague "I'm not vanilla" yourself?

Whether someone is or is not vanilla is pretty useless either way. You claim vanilla, but how do we know that you're not just scum with an ability? I think a lot of the claims are useless in that regard. I think its easier for scum to claim vanilla rather than not claim it because eventually if you say you have an ability you'll be asked to prove it. You claimed vanilla, right Matt?

For the record I'm Bender. I'm not convinced that claiming abilities helps the village, if I have one I'm keeping it to myself for the moment. And you can bite my shiny metal ass.

Of course on of those wolves being content with a Zak vs Q showdown could very well be Mattimeo.

Yes, that's why I jumped on a third candidate:
a) as soon as I got home
b) with the expectation of the usual last minute scramble where anyone can be pushed up.[/quote]

So you vote for me just 'cause in Day 1, and then vote for me again today because??

I could get behind a mattimeo vote because I do think he's done nothing vilagery and I think his insistence Day 1 not to make a decision about the top two

Despite the fact that 'not making a decision' was known to be functionally equivalent to 'voting for Qgqqqqq'?
[/quote]

I believe that during the last hour and a half the vote was tied at 4 each. You could have chosen either to vote for Qg or Zak. Or you could have posted during the hour leading up to lynch stating why you disliked either candidate. The problem is you were silent instead. Content to let it play out.

[Gazglum]

As for your part about probability Gazglum: That seems mathematically sound, but what has it to do with them both being scum or not? Of course the chances are higher that you find 2 scum in 4 out of 7 players than in 2 out of 7. But if I spin that further down, with the same logic we can conclude that the chances that zak and I are scum are also only 1/15 so you should not pursue that angle either. And the same is true for novice and Lewwyn, so don't look at them... oh wait, no one left to actually be scum, guess the village wins

Yeah this is how I felt when I read your probabilities Gazglum. Every pairing is 1/15 so trying to hunt based on probabilities and not scum tells is folly.

Ok, forget about the probabilities. I was responding to Serdoa's question as to why I had dismissed the idea of a Ryan/Mattimeo scum pairing. The reason was, as I was trying to show, that there was a much higher chance of a scum pair in the Q voters than there was among the lurkers. And I didn't like what I saw as Serdoa trying to cloud that issue and focus just on the lurkers.

Agree that Mattimeo is suspicious, but I'm really not liking Serdoa's refusal to even look at Novice/Zak's direction and pressure them at all. He just shuts down the argument by pointing out its flaws, (some of which was fair, I'll admit), but he won't try and do any scum-hunting on them himself.

[Gazglum]

Mattimeo, your last post responded to things from Novice and Zak, but you're keeping your vote on Lewwyn? What makes you think he is still the scummiest?

[Gazglum]

Yes, my Matt Groening character for this evening is...Homer SImpson!

Sometimes time zones suck. I’m about to host a ST Patrick’s Day party, and while I will be able to check in on the thread and change my vote if needed, this is my last chance today for a big post. Or at least for a sober post.

The way the lynches are happening are : Q into me and then Prob Gagzulm next. Better kill all the mislynchables

I know that there has been an element of self-pity from Ryan and me, and maybe we do have a persecution complex. But I think in a setup like this, all the townies should think very carefully before committing to a Day 2 lurker lynch after taking out Q day 1. I agree that Ryan or Mattimeo -could- be scum. But it doesn’t change the fact that it –is- hitting mislynchables two days running. There are people who could have a damn good motivation for encouraging that, and it makes me very uncomfortable to go along with it.

This is partly because I don’t have a strong read on either Mattimeo or Ryan being more scummy than the other. I think both are playing fairly similar to how I saw them in WW20. Yes that means that Mattimeo is annoyingly coy and close-mouthed, and Ryan is ranty and accusatory, neither of which helps the village, but it doesn’t help me pick one as definitely scummy over the other. Last game Mattimeo was village, Ryan was scum, for example. And if we lynch one as innocent, I think we’ve learned nothing.

This doesn’t mean we shouldn’t keep pressuring them tonight, though!

Among the Q-voters you could argue there is even more chance of a mislynch (4 targets instead of 2). But unlike Ryan/Matt, I have a clear lynch preference with them, and any of them flipping innocent would help me make up my mind on the others. If Zak is innocent, Serdoa looks better. If Lewwyn is innocent, Zak looks a better. If Novice is innocent, Serdoa looks better to me and MAttimeo worse. If Serdoa is innocent, I’m more likely to follow him lead towards Ryan.

And if we hit a guilty Q-voter, I think we’re a whole lot closer to victory, whereas even a wolf Mattimeo/Ryan doesn’t give us as much to go on yet.

I still don’t trust Zak or Serdoa, though I’m not saying they are necessarily a scum pair. But they are voting with each other and defending each other. So let’s say we mislynch a lurker, and the wolves get an innocent in the night. Then a WolfZak/Serdoa only has to keep the other one convinced, plus their scumbuddy’s vote, and that’s 3 votes to 2.

TL DR: If we mislynch Zak today, then we can still get Matt or Ryan (or me if you like) tomorrow. If we mislynch a lurker today, I think that it’s going to then be –very difficult- to build a majority against Zak after tonight.

I’ve said my piece. I’ll give a quick scum-theory list and then I’ll shut up.