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Heading out tonight, not sure of exact time I'll be getting back - should be somewhere around deadline, but I'm not sure if it'll be before or after.
Agree with novice that Lewwyn does not seem that likely as scum - especially with commuter, if the ability-seer turns out to be evil.
However, the rest of the post(s) seem much more in line with "if I can get anyone other than zak lynched, we'll win immediately" rather than "if zak is lynched, I'm pretty sure we lose immediately"...
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(March 21st, 2013, 00:45)Lewwyn Wrote: Matt, if Zak is scum, who is is scumbuddy? And please explain why you think so. Could be you: yes, you've been rather antagonistic to each other throughout the game, but (as novice pointed out) you've never actually ended up on each other when it comes down to it. And if Azza was being truthful about roles being completely random, it doesn't actually tell us anything that your abilities seem like they shouldn't be on the same team. Also note that it was zak who initially brought up the idea that Azza might not have been entirely accurate with that - perhaps as a way of subtle distancing between the two of you.
Could be novice: they've been acting chummy the entire game, and especially today, where novice is doing more to defend zak than zak is himself. I find the whole 'breadcruming' suspicious as well - initial claims it should be obvious to everyone turned out to be 'obvious for one specific person', and that specific person didn't notice anything weird about it at the time - what's the bet novice would have known exactly what zak had been going on about if zak had ended up lynched?
General behaviour between the two just seems to be "let's organise stuff in the main thread so they don't suspect we have a QT to do that as well"..
I'm not thinking Serdoa is very likely, for pretty much similar reasons to you.
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(March 21st, 2013, 00:53)Mattimeo Wrote: Heading out tonight, not sure of exact time I'll be getting back - should be somewhere around deadline, but I'm not sure if it'll be before or after.
Agree with novice that Lewwyn does not seem that likely as scum - especially with commuter, if the ability-seer turns out to be evil.
However, the rest of the post(s) seem much more in line with "if I can get anyone other than zak lynched, we'll win immediately" rather than "if zak is lynched, I'm pretty sure we lose immediately"...
The rest of Lewwyn's posts, or in general?
Also, you suspect Novice of being my scum buddy for buddying up to me and defending me? Isn't that the same thing that Serdoa's been doing, though?
If you know what I mean.
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Well, I sense two possibilities here right now:
1) Matt+zak scum-pair
This seems to be the group that Lewwyn and novice is leaning for the most.
2) Lewwyn+novice scum pair
This seems to be group that benefits the most from the actual lynch targets.
So it seems different to everyone else I do not have the "luck" that I look at possible pairings and can state "oh, x shows up the most, so he is probably the wolf". What brings me back to scum-hunting in itself, instead of playing numbers. I still don't understand why everyone is looking for scum-pairs btw, imo there was not enough obvious interaction at all to deduce anything as we simply didn't lynch a wolf yet, if you didn't notice, and without that, what it leaves is basically guessing on how the possible wolves (everyone left alive) would act with everyone else. Without having a starting point though it becomes very easy to declare something as probable or non-probable wolf pairing without a real reason. I think that is especially good shown here:
(March 21st, 2013, 00:45)Lewwyn Wrote: Of these 3 I think the Zak and Serdoa pairing is actually the least likely. This is based on Serdoa's really aggressive defense of Zak, which I think is simply too aggressive. And now his rather abrupt turn towards Zak as a suspect in part decided by his longer post on Zak earlier in the day. I don't really seem them as a pair.
Lewwyn can't see a scum-pair acting like that. I on the other hand could easily see a scum-pair playing like that. If we were both wolves what would we lose? Either zak is lynched (and I am considered innocent for the last day when it is 2-1) or zak somehow dodges the lynch and we win as well. It is actually what I fear that the wolves are doing right now, just not with me being the second wolf. Because if I look at zaks behaviour so far for today it is completely off. He isn't even trying to defend himself, he is just waiting it seems. Thats actually the reason why I will stay on him, but if he is indeed the wolf will not give anyone a free pass tomorrow. Anyhow, that is why we should imo not look for pairings but for the behaviour of single players. It is easier to deduce if that is off than to decide if a pair is somehow acting strange in regards to each other. And like I said, I think zak shows very odd behaviour for a villager, with just taking the lynch and not caring about the village losing.
Quote:Serdoa, I asked you before why you think Matt is innocent And you said:
Serdoa Wrote:Sorry, didn't mean to be harsh. This silence is just nerve-wracking because I get the feeling it just means that the wolves are happy with were the votes are. Which might at the worst mean that neither zak nor Matt is a wolf.
Technically there are 3 votes on Zak so if the wolves are happy that doesn't exclude Matt as a possible wolf because he's not actually going to be lynched if the votes stay the same. So do you think Matt is innocent based on his play? Who do you think is Zak's scumbuddy if he's scum? Do you think I'm reading Novice wrong?
As I said I can see everyone as scum-buddy right now. I think zak showed the most scummy behaviour and if I am right and he is a wolf and I am still alive after the night, I will again look into what the others alive did. But I won't declare anyone innocent right now.
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(March 21st, 2013, 00:53)Mattimeo Wrote: Agree with novice that Lewwyn does not seem that likely as scum - especially with commuter, if the ability-seer turns out to be evil.
However, the rest of the post(s) seem much more in line with "if I can get anyone other than zak lynched, we'll win immediately" rather than "if zak is lynched, I'm pretty sure we lose immediately"...
Well I think this is interesting because if you are referring to the last post, I haven't switched my vote of Zak and I'm not trying to get anyone lynched specifically yet (beyond Zak I suppose) because I'm not sure who is a "safe" lynch. The reason I'm asking is that I'm not sure if we lynch Zak we win or lose. I really can't wrap my head around your statment Matt. Are you saying I should be saying "if Zak is lynched we lose immidiately"?... The more I think about this the more confused I am. I think the first part about me "get anyone other than Zak lynched" is to imply I'm Zak's scumbuddy yes? But then the second part in conjunction with that doesn't make sense if I'm town and Zak is scum... Maybe you should try to explain this again.
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
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Hav eto get back to class.
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
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(March 21st, 2013, 01:57)Lewwyn Wrote: (March 21st, 2013, 00:53)Mattimeo Wrote: Agree with novice that Lewwyn does not seem that likely as scum - especially with commuter, if the ability-seer turns out to be evil.
However, the rest of the post(s) seem much more in line with "if I can get anyone other than zak lynched, we'll win immediately" rather than "if zak is lynched, I'm pretty sure we lose immediately"...
Well I think this is interesting because if you are referring to the last post, I haven't switched my vote of Zak and I'm not trying to get anyone lynched specifically yet (beyond Zak I suppose) because I'm not sure who is a "safe" lynch. The reason I'm asking is that I'm not sure if we lynch Zak we win or lose. I really can't wrap my head around your statment Matt. Are you saying I should be saying "if Zak is lynched we lose immidiately"?... The more I think about this the more confused I am. I think the first part about me "get anyone other than Zak lynched" is to imply I'm Zak's scumbuddy yes? But then the second part in conjunction with that doesn't make sense if I'm town and Zak is scum... Maybe you should try to explain this again.
Maybe he was referring to me in the second sentence. So in other words, "the rest of Novice's post(s) seem much more in line with "if I can get anyone other than zak lynched, we'll win immediately" rather than "if zak is lynched, I'm pretty sure we lose immediately"..."
It's what he accused me of earlier, at least.
I have to run.
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I guess you might say I've been waiting to see where the chips will fall, Serdoa. In other games where I've been under the gun, I have learned the importance of not alienating fellow villagers by going on premature counter attacks.
Still, a Serdoa+Mattimeo pair is increasingly making sense to me. Serdoa has been telling Mattimeo repeatedly to get his act together, with no retorts at all from Mattimeo. I could try hitting you with a wall of quotes but I'm confined to my iPad. The meta also implicates them, with the only two claimed vanilla roles. And I think my own role PM might be phrased slightly differently if there were vanilla villagers out there. It just says I'll determine my target's abilities. There's no "if any" qualifier.
If Serdoa refuses to budge, I kind of have to assume he is scum, anyway. Otherwise the game will be lost either way, with his vote plus the two scum votes.
Mattimeo just said he'd be gone until the deadline, while keeping his vote on me. He is also pointing at Novice as my scum buddy but at the same time agreeing that Serdoa is innocent for pretty much the same set of reasons.
If you know what I mean.
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Yeah I could see Serdoa+Mattimeo as scum.
Lynching Mattimeo seems like the best option. He's pulling his punches, just making small snide retorts when he's pushed. And Zak's point on Mattimeo's inconsistency with regards to Serdoa and me is well taken.
I have to run.
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I should add this, Serdoa. If you see the light and lynch Mattimeo, I promise you a fair trial. 
That may sound like a joke, but it's not.
If you know what I mean.
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