My political advisors have suggested that my last post's tone was too glum. I should try and build a better case for the defence, cos nobody else is going to.
There is no flourish of evidence I can use to protect myself. But there is also no evidence that confirms I am lying. Admittedly it looks bad. But consider this,
1. Unless Uber is a protector-healer type of person, and I presume he would have counterclaimed if he was, I am the only protection role. Scum obviosuly wouldn't have protection roles, at least not without vigilantes. If I am scum, then you are assuming a villager team with
- no alignment seer
- no protection
- no vigilante
- a puppet
- a neighbour who has been paired with a malicious criminal
- probably at least one of miller and anti-town puppetmaster
That is a shitty town lineup, unless Uber has something Uber up his sleeve.
2. Given that protection roles are fairly common, and a betting man would probably guess we had some kind of doctor/jailer/martyr going on, it would be a ballsy (read: stupid) scum ploy for me to claim martyr yesterday when someone else could counterclaim.
As Zak (I think) said, scum should claim as close to their real role as possible to minimise discrepancies. It would be a weird choice for me to claim martyr.
3. The choice of Tasunke, I think, lends weight to me telling the truth. WHo were the most valuable targets for scum?
- Novice: confirmed innocent
- Uber: if town, then Uber is hunting hard and well. He also has a potential power role.
- Jkaen: if town, then Jkaen has an admitted power role that could trap a scum
If I was scum, I could have taken out any of these three. Tasunke did turn out to be a seer, which was good for scum, but that surely had to be a lucky guess. I certainly hadn't seen any tells of him having more than usual knowledge. Rather the reverse actually. Tasunke is also someone who can be mislynched, and is unlikely to lead lots of people along behind him.
Note - Tasunke also fingered Zak as his most suspicious, and we KNOW from last game that Scum Zak will just knock off the votes against him for the win.
Ok, if I was scum and had claimed martyr, I wouldn't want to kill Novice after saying I would protect him. And killing Tasunke could be a way of backing up my claim, by making it look like scum were nervous about a martyr. But think about it. Think about what Qqq said yesterday. Scum don't do the big complicated plays, they do simple ones.
Why would I invent a role that meant I had to then NOT kill a high-priority target so as to stay in cover? I could have come up with almost any other role, and then killed Novice or Uber. The case against me is built on supervillain logic contortions. COmpare that to the other possibility: 'Scum has a roleblocker'.
4. We know that even if everyone is telling the truth about their roles, we have a possible blocker. Zak could have blocked me and Novice from connecting with his traffic-cop routine. Sure, it seems a bit random, but he's got to hit someone that first night. Zak is also on a lot of people's suspicion list.
This would require some seriously quick thinking on Zak's part. He owuldk have to have worked out the flaw in my story before Novice, then lied in his claim about blocking Azza/Novice because he wants to trap me. It's possible, I guess.
I think its also very possible that Zak is telling the truth, and that someone else blocked me Night 1.
IMPORTANT: Jkaen just got a 'no result' on Zak didn't he? But Zak admits that he blocked Jkaen from seeing Novice last night. SO surely that has to count as a visit to one or both of them. Either Zak is lying, Jkaen is lying (very risky, if he is scum and Zak isn't, so he just has to guess), or there is another blocker, who hit Jkaen last night, and hit me the night before.
But there can't have been a blocker on Jkaen, because I was guarding him. So Jkaen's ability HAD to get through.
JKAEN IS A LIAR OR ZAK IS A LIAR. Please remember this tomorrow if I am lynched and turn up innocent.
There is no flourish of evidence I can use to protect myself. But there is also no evidence that confirms I am lying. Admittedly it looks bad. But consider this,
1. Unless Uber is a protector-healer type of person, and I presume he would have counterclaimed if he was, I am the only protection role. Scum obviosuly wouldn't have protection roles, at least not without vigilantes. If I am scum, then you are assuming a villager team with
- no alignment seer
- no protection
- no vigilante
- a puppet
- a neighbour who has been paired with a malicious criminal
- probably at least one of miller and anti-town puppetmaster
That is a shitty town lineup, unless Uber has something Uber up his sleeve.
2. Given that protection roles are fairly common, and a betting man would probably guess we had some kind of doctor/jailer/martyr going on, it would be a ballsy (read: stupid) scum ploy for me to claim martyr yesterday when someone else could counterclaim.
As Zak (I think) said, scum should claim as close to their real role as possible to minimise discrepancies. It would be a weird choice for me to claim martyr.
3. The choice of Tasunke, I think, lends weight to me telling the truth. WHo were the most valuable targets for scum?
- Novice: confirmed innocent
- Uber: if town, then Uber is hunting hard and well. He also has a potential power role.
- Jkaen: if town, then Jkaen has an admitted power role that could trap a scum
If I was scum, I could have taken out any of these three. Tasunke did turn out to be a seer, which was good for scum, but that surely had to be a lucky guess. I certainly hadn't seen any tells of him having more than usual knowledge. Rather the reverse actually. Tasunke is also someone who can be mislynched, and is unlikely to lead lots of people along behind him.
Note - Tasunke also fingered Zak as his most suspicious, and we KNOW from last game that Scum Zak will just knock off the votes against him for the win.
Ok, if I was scum and had claimed martyr, I wouldn't want to kill Novice after saying I would protect him. And killing Tasunke could be a way of backing up my claim, by making it look like scum were nervous about a martyr. But think about it. Think about what Qqq said yesterday. Scum don't do the big complicated plays, they do simple ones.
Why would I invent a role that meant I had to then NOT kill a high-priority target so as to stay in cover? I could have come up with almost any other role, and then killed Novice or Uber. The case against me is built on supervillain logic contortions. COmpare that to the other possibility: 'Scum has a roleblocker'.
4. We know that even if everyone is telling the truth about their roles, we have a possible blocker. Zak could have blocked me and Novice from connecting with his traffic-cop routine. Sure, it seems a bit random, but he's got to hit someone that first night. Zak is also on a lot of people's suspicion list.
This would require some seriously quick thinking on Zak's part. He owuldk have to have worked out the flaw in my story before Novice, then lied in his claim about blocking Azza/Novice because he wants to trap me. It's possible, I guess.
I think its also very possible that Zak is telling the truth, and that someone else blocked me Night 1.
IMPORTANT: Jkaen just got a 'no result' on Zak didn't he? But Zak admits that he blocked Jkaen from seeing Novice last night. SO surely that has to count as a visit to one or both of them. Either Zak is lying, Jkaen is lying (very risky, if he is scum and Zak isn't, so he just has to guess), or there is another blocker, who hit Jkaen last night, and hit me the night before.
But there can't have been a blocker on Jkaen, because I was guarding him. So Jkaen's ability HAD to get through.
JKAEN IS A LIAR OR ZAK IS A LIAR. Please remember this tomorrow if I am lynched and turn up innocent.