(April 28th, 2013, 17:54)Gaspar Wrote: And if not me, scum Zak would kill uber unless they're scum buddies. Serdoa just doesn't strike me as Zak's style. I'm not clearing him by any means, but I give him a slight town lean for that.
Bad reasoning. If zak's scum and I'm town here, why on earth would he kill me when he can try and get me mislynched with people attacking me? From this point of view Serdoa makes perfect sense as a kill from him, as Serdoa didn't suspect me and had more village cred than the other ryan voters (Bigger and Matt.) Actually, the same argument applies to anyone else currently attacking me since if you admit that I'm village and being wrongly attacked, then scum wouldn't have much incentive to kill any town that are attacking me. So I don't think serdoa's kill gives much of a tell on anyone.
Anyway, why would killing serdoa not be in zak's "style"?
Quote:Uberfish though is the mostly likely of the three. I've sensed an underlying frustration from him all game that really doesn't have any good reason. From my experience, votes don't really bother him when he's a villager.
All game? I only got annoyed starting from the late portion of d1. I'm annoyed because:
1) Ryan didn't show apart from his 1 bad post and I'm really tired of these day 1 absences being given a free pass. At some point we have to follow through with the policy lynch or this sort of play becomes acceptable.
2) I'm being attacked on the basis of a crappy meta case yet again.
Quote:I expect more investigation from uber, he was way too happy to have the day end once Ryan put his foot in his mouth. Village Uber I think keeps the pressure on. Scum Uber is worried if he gets people talking they start talking about him more.
I was applying pressure. To Ryan. I wanted to force him to actually start participating. Anyway I don't see why I am being singled out for not being particularly active, when no one else was either.
I'm not holding your activity against you, nor do I think I have a crappy meta case. But I guess both of those comments were aimed at Gaspar.
Raising activity requires a collective effort. It takes more than one player to keep a discussion going.
I like (as in, positively adore) Mattimeo's post #99, and I think it's a valid point that Serdoa's death doesn't particularly implicate Uberfish.
I also agree that Gaspar's post #95 is scummy, particularly if you assume that Uberfish is innocent. (Though I'm not ready to shelve the Gaspar/Uberfish theory, either.)
to clarify this yes I think zakalwe has a crappy meta case too.
(April 29th, 2013, 03:00)zakalwe Wrote: And sure, you could poke people as a villager too. But when I look at your pokes they don't seem all that "constructive" to me. You asked Mattimeo why he even bothered to sign up, which was a bit passive-aggressive IMO. Just taking a step towards establishing that he's a worthy policy lynch without really getting your hands dirty. (Or maybe it was distancing?) Then there's that poke at Bigger that I already rewarded with a scum point, which just seemed more like splitting hairs than actually pouncing on suspicious behavior. It's not like I expect to see a huge difference on the surface between your scum and village play on day 1, but I try to reconstruct your underlying reasoning to see if it makes sense.
Firstly a poke from me is just a poke in response to a statement that I don't like. I don't see why you view this as unconstructive because it did elicit further responses from the poked players. I didn't find these incriminating so I didn't follow up. Trying to say that I'm establishing Matt as a policy lynch there is really pushing it when I've not made any further attacks on Matt. And really, distancing again? I can't exactly be scum with both Matt and Gaspar. This reads like your usual tunnel vision mode where you assume someone is scum and read every post they make from the perspective of whether it makes sense as scum. I don't even get what you mean about "underlying reasoning". I play pretty straightfowardly. If I don't like a post I comment on it. If I think a player is scummy enough to deserve a vote, or needs pressure, I vote them.
The irritating thing about all this is that I have to give Zak a mild town read for it because he's more likely to actually attack me when he is town, and ignore or agree with me (particularly when I'm on the wrong track) when he is scum.
Quote:[OOC: I have to say something cheerful or enthusiastic in every post. I suspect Lewwyn has something similar.]
Yeah, I realised this might be the case after rereading which is why I asked; It makes roleplaying per se not much of a tell since it is forced.
Well, if you're innocent I guess I can see why you think my case is crappy. It's certainly not a meta case, though. But now I'm the one splitting hairs. (I just realized what a delightfully rewarding activity that is - the target practice is excellent.)
You could be scum with Gaspar, or you could be scum with Mattimeo. Just because they can't both be true, doesn't mean I won't consider both options.
is no one besides me interested in getting pocketbeetle to actually participate in this game? he's made like half a dozen posts, all role playing, and hasn't even voted today! I'm not proposing a policy lynch, but I'd like to at least get him to start participating so we have a chance of getting a read on him.
Please don't go. The drones need you. They look up to you.
(April 28th, 2013, 16:24)Serdoa Wrote: Thanks for the game, I thought I would live longer
Unlucky Serdoa
For what it's worth, I thought you were playing decently and had picked up on you being ZB.
Be interesting to know what your ability: Quibble was, I'd suspect some kind of tiebreaker function?
Quick thoughts before I move onto a longer post:
Ryan/Eddie's ability: Monitor room was almost certainly a Tracker role imo.
And to respond to zak/uber's discussion on character roles, despite only having a passing knowledge of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, I thought it extremely obvious that zak is Colin and Lewwyn is Martyn (and both playing them very well).
Initially thought uber's attempt to attack Lewwyn over his character play was extremely scummy (hence my stretching comment), but I can come around to it just being a general townie denseness.
No other character hints from the other players, but I'd be surprised if we don't have an Arthur, Ford and Trilian somewhere.
Okay, the following are not facts, they're not even theories, they're just pencil outlines of my current mental picture (and yes it's a dark dark place ).
Day 1 voting:
Day 1 was bad in some ways, we lost potentially two power roles, one on a bad lynch. However one positive is that the voting crystallised on two people with very little movement and few outliers.
Several of you guys seem to base your opinions on tone, previous character behaviour and whatnot; which is fine, but for myself I prefer data.
Day voting can be divided into three groups.
Group A: Bigger, Mattimeo, Uberfish
Group B: Gaspar, Zakalwe
Group C: Lewwyn
Group A: are the Ryan voters, excluding the now-deceased Serdoa.
It was a bad lynch, I'm trying not to harp on about it, but suffice to say that these three get a wolf lean for it. Other players all picked up on it and moved away from Ryan for various reasons, that I think zakalwe explained best:
(April 27th, 2013, 14:51)zakalwe Wrote: On the flip side, why would scum spend his first and so far only post virtually begging to be lynched?
So while it does make sense to policy lynch him for not contributing, I have a hard time seeing him as likely scum. It's a bold gambit if he is.
Additionally, Lewwyn almost pre-emptively avoided voting for Ryan and has stated that he would have moved his vote to avoid Ryan getting lynched had he been online:
(April 27th, 2013, 19:44)Lewwyn Wrote: I would have voted to lynch uberfish over Ryan if such a run had been option before bed. But we were doomed from the start. I think you ought to know I'm feeling very depressed.
I'm willing to believe that and make allowances for timezones, similarly I would have made an allowance for Serdoa if he was still alive.
I've already stated that I'm making some allowance for Mattimeo being newer (although this will end at some point), therefore I think this vote reflects worst on uberfish and Bigger.
I mean comon, Ryan didn't even change his vote from zakalwe to uberfish to allow for a possible tiebreaker and last minute switch. What kind of wolf doesn't at least try to save himself?
Group B: are the uberfish voters. For obvious reasons I've not included myself.
These guys moved their vote late when it seemed like Ryan was less likely to be a wolf. For that they get a slight positive village lean.
Wolves want to secure a first day village lynch, the only two situations that it would make sense (for a wolf among these two) to move away from Ryan is if 1) uberfish is a wolf but they were absolutely confident Ryan was going to be lynched or 2) if uberfish is also village, and hence nomatter which lead candidate got lynched, it would still be a 'win'.
Considering that the vote was quite close and Ryan could have returned in time, it would be quite brave for a wolf pair to be uberfish-zak or uberfish-gaspar. Hence the slight town lean for zakalwe and gaspar atm, although I stress that isn't mitigating for uberfish.
OTOH should uberfish flip village, we could then revisit this and could ask questions about Gaspar and zakalwe.
Group C: lastly, all on a group of his own (as seems right! ) is Lewwyn.
He voted for Gaspar rather than Ryan as detailed above, not much information can be gained from this for the time being.
While I recognise that at the time the vote was valid, in hindsight it ended up a parking vote. *shrugs*
So what's the point of all this?
I'll try and keep it brief because I'm sure it's getting boring by now, but my understanding is that wolves' main aim in voting actions is not to avoid clumping on one target, nor to spread out their votes, but simply to avoid patterns. Pattern recognition can catch them, so they need to avoid it.
But of the possible distributions for wolf votes, I'd say it boils down into a few finite combinations:
Two wolf votes on Ryan.
Yes both wolves ending up on Ryan would be pretty dumb of them, but the possibility is there mainly because of uberfish's presence as second lead candidate. There is a possibility that due to the voting, both wolves ended up locked on Ryan and one of them is uberfish. I cannot envisage a situation where on Day 1, a wolf would swap a village lynch for bussing his companion wolf (ie move off Ryan), simply to avoid being together on the same lynch candidate.
A 1:1 distribution, 2 main possibilities:
A1B1 (1 Group A, 1 Group B)
A1C1
You'll notice I've not included a 1B1C nor a 2B combination. That would mean the wolves were so confident that Ryan would be lynched they were happy to sit back and let the village go ahead without any encouragement. I think it's unlikely, I strongly believe at least one wolf would have jumped on Ryan simply to secure and encourage the bandwagon.
The upshot of the above is that in my opinion, we are most likely to find a wolf by examining Group A.
Simply put, I'm willing to line up every single one of the Ryan voters and airlock each of them in order of scumminess, and if there's not a single wolf in there I'm willing to say "GG wolves, you got a lucky break from Ryan but you played it to perfection" and accept the loss.
Anyone else feel that way?
(April 28th, 2013, 22:15)Bigger Wrote: I still would like to hear pocketbeetle's explanation of his uber vote.
So why uberfish out of the three Group A voters?
I've made no secret that I'm unhappy with uberfish's play so far.
He has significant history with these WW games, yet while other experienced players identified and avoided voting for Ryan, he was and apparently still is content with his vote.
(April 27th, 2013, 15:37)uberfish Wrote: Yeah well, at some point we need to draw a line and actually policy lynch people for pulling this sort of anti-town nonsense on day 1. I can't be sure Ryan is scum, but I'll take what I think is a better than average chance since he made one post and it was a bad one. To be honest, I was hoping being the lead wagon would draw Ryan out of the woodwork and was planning to flip back to Gaspar if Ryan posted something satisfactory and nothing else changed.
Gaspar complaining about the game being dull is funny. Personally I'm happy I don't have to wade through 30 pages of day 1 in which 80% of the posts are useless noise.
I don't like that last point in particular, makes it even harder to catch wolves if nobody talks.
Other players have made various comments about him that I'm listening and paying attention to:
(April 27th, 2013, 01:10)zakalwe Wrote: I'm also willing to lynch Uberfish. I think his play so far fits his scum MO. A couple of jabs, but pulling his punches a little. He could be poking at his scumbuddy, or testing the waters to see if anything will stick on a good guy.
(April 27th, 2013, 20:56)Lewwyn Wrote: Which I find pretty scummy. Only after reading this would lynching Uber have been option for me.
(April 28th, 2013, 15:59)zakalwe Wrote: I voted Uberfish because he made a couple of cheap jabs during the day, without really following through. His reaction to being bandwagoned was also scummy IMO - "which of you is scum?" as a rhetorical question, instead of actually trying to work that out. Sounds like if there even was a scum on his wagon, it was his buddy. It is also noteworthy that he went from saying "I'm staying on Gaspar" to taking the very first opportunity to hop off him. And when he originally did say that, people were already talking about Ryan as a fallback lynch, so it was really in the cards that there would be an opportunity to switch.
It wasn't a late bandwagon from my point of view - I started it well before the deadline. And when Ryan didn't even vote to save himself, I thought it was pretty clear he was innocent, so Uberfish felt like a better lynch.
^ zakalwe's thoughts at the end there almost mirroring my own above.
I noted that uberfish didn't initiate the bandwagon on Ryan, but was extremely quick (30 mins) to follow up on it.
(April 27th, 2013, 07:35)uberfish Wrote: Ryan, for the same reasons as Serdoa. Awful first post.
His defense so far has been:
(April 28th, 2013, 17:22)uberfish Wrote: Hey zak - you should very well know that my reaction to unfounded accusations against myself is contempt/dismissal/outright ignoring them unless I think I might be mislynched. PB hasn't been an active werewolf player so I can see him coming from a perspective where he has no idea what on earth a scum tell from me would be (hint: read the last 2-3 games), but you? You should know my meta better than this. I poke people on day 1 a lot. If the response isn't suspicious I don't follow up - Why would I?
So uberfish is saying that he's playing exactly as he always does as a villager on Day 1. Personally I read that as a negative thing.
If you are making a point of deliberately and carefully mimicing how you always play as village early on, and are aware of it, then how on earth (sorry, in space) is one to tell when you're a wolf? Because you are clearly and carefully paying attention to how you behave in order to give no tells.
Sorry, but overall this comes across to me as contrived and carefully crafted, not just naturally playing. And the only time you have to be careful and contrived is ofc when you're a wolf.
(April 28th, 2013, 17:54)Gaspar Wrote: Uberfish though is the mostly likely of the three. I've sensed an underlying frustration from him all game that really doesn't have any good reason. From my experience, votes don't really bother him when he's a villager. If he gets annoyed as a villager its usually either because of a particular stupid town lynch (which isn't the case here since he was part of the lynch) or because of the quantity of posts (also not an issue here.) I expect more investigation from uber, he was way too happy to have the day end once Ryan put his foot in his mouth. Village Uber I think keeps the pressure on. Scum Uber is worried if he gets people talking they start talking about him more.
Like I said, I don't really go for character behaviour/tone tells, but I definitely agree with the last part of what Gaspar says, Uberfish seemed too content with sitting back once he'd voted for Ryan. One of the key points about being a villager is the uncertainty, the second guessing yourself, Mattimeo exhibits it to some extent in post #66. The only time you're certain in this game is if you already have all the information on who is village, and that means you're a wolf. Where is the uncertainty?
Uber's response to being questioned on this is:
(April 29th, 2013, 05:51)uberfish Wrote: I was applying pressure. To Ryan. I wanted to force him to actually start participating.
Hold on, didn't you criticise Bigger here for doing exactly this?
(April 26th, 2013, 09:09)uberfish Wrote: ... do you really believe that without your vote PB wouldn't have posted anything?
Not consistent imo.
(April 29th, 2013, 08:16)zakalwe Wrote: I like (as in, positively adore) Mattimeo's post #99, and I think it's a valid point that Serdoa's death doesn't particularly implicate Uberfish.
Can we examine/ you explain the reasoning here please.
I follow the thinking, but I'm not reaching the same conclusion.
In my opinion, zalakwe, Gaspar and I all voted for uberfish, while Lewwyn expressed a post-day/early night intention that he would have voted uberfish given the opportunity.
Given that situation, a night kill on any of these would have reflected badly on uberfish and possibly incited a revenge lynch from the village (that might sound simplistic, but as Lewwyn said we are often sheeplike).
This is a positive thing to do for the wolves if uberfish is village, a bad thing to do if uberfish is a wolf. (I'm basing this on a possible village reprisal lynch having greater momentum than +/- 1 vote.)
In my opinion it makes more sense that if uberfish was a wolf, to kill one of the Group A voters instead, confident that he could argue his innocence the next day, in some part based upon it (indeed as he has already done and consequently zakalwe has changed his vote). And killing the least scummy/most veteran player(?) among the Group A voters, ie Serdoa, is therefore a sound interpretation of the events?
The above are lots of little points, none of them are decisive ofc, maybe I'm even tunnel visioning too much (look uberfish - uncertainty!).
But to summarise, I feel he is the most wolfish out of the three (Uberfish, Bigger, Mattimeo) and that we gain the most information from lynching him at this time. I would like to know his alignment for certain in order to have an idea of which direction to go. If he flips village, then that suggests we look in Bigger's and Mattimeo's direction with slight questions to zakalwe and Gaspar, while if he flips wolf then we need to strongly look at Bigger and Mattimeo (poor you two ) and something approaching potential clearance that Gaspar, zakalwe, Lewwyn and myself are villagers.
Conclusion, lynching uberfish gives more information than a more random lynch in someone else/Gaspar's direction.
What does lynching Gaspar tell us if he flips villager?
Not a lot imo.
Sure, it would be nice if he gave us some more content, although I'd argue that he has done more than just role playing so far. In the meantime, why don't you comment on some of the other going-ons? That would really make my day!
).