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(April 29th, 2013, 12:59)Bigger Wrote: is no one besides me interested in getting pocketbeetle to actually participate in this game? he's made like half a dozen posts, all role playing, and hasn't even voted today! I'm not proposing a policy lynch, but I'd like to at least get him to start participating so we have a chance of getting a read on him. (April 26th, 2013, 09:34)Bigger Wrote: uber: yes. I am powerful and mighty. People pay attention to what I have to say!
You called Oh Mighty Bigger! And so the mountain came!
Now wait a fooblesecond.
Why am I following the instructions of this snivelling worm?
*Goes off muttering*
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Personally, I thought Zaphod would have a double vote.  No real idea what Quibble might do - maybe a tiebreaker ability? Monitor Room sounds more like a watcher than a tracker to me.
In a game this small, every vote counts a lot, and so I believe the best strategy is generally just to kill off the people who suspect you and argue WIFOM if you're questioned about it. Of course, maybe you would deviate from that strategy because that would be too predictable... and maybe the poison is really in the other glass of wine.
It's not really all that fruitful to speculate about, even though I find it irresistibly tempting!
If you know what I mean.
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As a general rule, I love data and look down on gut feel - particularly as it relates to things like sports and politics. In WW games though, data is so imperfect before the game is largely decided that it is often hard to use. I think PB makes a pretty compelling data-argument on where the scum is, even if I don't really agree with the concept of analyzing day one voting at all.
I think part of the trick is in a smaller game, each day of voting means a bit more. By the same token, each nightkill is more important. That's why I tried to analyze the nightkill. Do I think I have it figured out? No. But I think there's more information in there than normal. The good player to inexperienced player ratio is a little higher here as well.
To me the best argument against Ryan voters is that a strong player could really see the fail there. Unfortunately, I think that's also the best argument against the Ryan non-voters. I buy Serdoa and uber both thinking we need to send a message on policy lynching non-contributors. I just find the lack of pressure anywhere else to be pretty peculiar. Its incredibly lazy to watch Ryan exhibit hoof-in-mouth disease, park your vote there and be done with it. Even if I had wanted to lyncrh Ryan, I would have been talking about other players in the thread in the hopes of generating some information for later.
I agree with PB that uberfish is probably the best information lynch. If he flips scum, then it is almost certain that the 2nd scum is among the non-uberfish voters on day one. If he flips village, then I'd say its almost certain there is no more than one scum on the Ryan voters. I'm not sure any other candidate is as strong a litmus test for future information.
That said, I prefer lynching players because they seem scummy. I have no conviction on that front at the moment, however. I like my thoughts on uber but I also thought his defense seemed decent. Mattimeo is playing the same game Mattimeo always plays, with a lazy day one vote and then I'm a good target whichever side of the fence you're on. Bigger's a tough read for me - he's so confrontational that he always seems like aggrieved scum to me but I give him points for trying to keep active on an exceptionally quiet day one.
Of the non-Ryan voters, I could talk myself into Lewwyn or zakalwe (but probably not PB, simply due to wanting more information from him because I have less of a baseline on him than the others) but both of them probably have at least something to do with the fact that I always feel like those two are guilty. I'm trying to metagame myself a bit by looking elsewhere. Though I would really like to see something other than uberfish-Gaspar hopscotch from zak and a bit too much roleplay come to life from Lewwyn.
For now, the combination of meta and non-meta circumstantial evidence is strongest on uber and hence where I'm staying. But I'm not locked in by any means.
I've got some dirt on my shoulder, can you brush it off for me?
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Gaspar just said a lot, but also said nothing. I was actually starting to lean towards him as villager, but I was wrong as always.
Why wouldn't Uberfish kill someone who was voting for Uberfish?! In such a small game you kill people locked onto scum and then spin their deaths however you want! Nut Gaspar doesn't really entertain that notion... I doubt many are and for that we walk in darkness.
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
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(April 29th, 2013, 18:26)Lewwyn Wrote: Gaspar just said a lot, but also said nothing. I was actually starting to lean towards him as villager, but I was wrong as always.
Why wouldn't Uberfish kill someone who was voting for Uberfish?! In such a small game you kill people locked onto scum and then spin their deaths however you want! Nut Gaspar doesn't really entertain that notion... I doubt many are and for that we walk in darkness.
SHOCKED /notshocked
I've got some dirt on my shoulder, can you brush it off for me?
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Really not liking PB's information lynch angle here, it's making too many assumptions about scum behaviour, but at least he's posting some actual content. I'll have more time to look into it tomorrow.
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(April 29th, 2013, 18:26)Lewwyn Wrote: Gaspar just said a lot, but also said nothing. I was actually starting to lean towards him as villager, but I was wrong as always.
Why wouldn't Uberfish kill someone who was voting for Uberfish?! In such a small game you kill people locked onto scum and then spin their deaths however you want! Nut Gaspar doesn't really entertain that notion... I doubt many are and for that we walk in darkness.
Okay, not seeking to change your vote Lewwyn, but seeing as you won't be around at day end, could you explain the reason for your vote.
My current opinion as outlined above, is that if we lynch one of uberfish/Bigger/Mattimeo, we have a 33% chance of getting a wolf. Whereas if we lynch Gaspar and he flips village, we're still faced with the same odds except it'll be LYLO.
So why Gaspar?
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PB - sorry for not quoting, but thats a long message
1. What is the "obvious reason" for not including yourself? sorry if that seems dense, but please answer.
2. mattimeo is not new. he started one game after me (pb13). he's played more games than you.. maybe even Ryan has? (don't remember how many of the early game you played). I don't suspect Matt but I don't see why you would give him a "newbie" waiver?
3. your formula's.. good grief.. you seem to completely overlook the possibility that ryan AND uber are innocent, and the wolves didn't really care who was lynched?
Besides that.. it is a whole bunch of words without saying much. I think you've gone from a ww playing role playing the bureaucrat to a bureaucrat role-playing a ww player. I consider myself a pretty sharp guy, but I've reread post 108 several times and it just makes my head hurt. why ruin a perfectly good game by bring algebra into it?
109 was better, but not much. that said, I'm not getting any traction, maybe I can find your packmate.
(April 29th, 2013, 18:26)Lewwyn Wrote: Gaspar just said a lot, but also said nothing. I was actually starting to lean towards him as villager, but I was wrong as always.
why would you not call out pocketbeetle for doing the same thing? Even moreso than gaspar. Why are you so fixated on the uber/Gaspar drama? are their no other candidates?
I also don't particularly like your defense from uber's accusations (if you didn't like Ryan's posts, why were you trying to lynch someone else to save him?), so lewwyn.
Please don't go. The drones need you. They look up to you.
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(April 29th, 2013, 20:31)Bigger Wrote: PB - sorry for not quoting, but thats a long message
1. What is the "obvious reason" for not including yourself? sorry if that seems dense, but please answer.
Obvious answer is that he clears himself via his role pm. Fairly common for players not to include themselves in analysis. I don't necessary agree, but its fairly common.
(April 29th, 2013, 20:31)Bigger Wrote: your formula's.. good grief.. you seem to completely overlook the possibility that ryan AND uber are innocent, and the wolves didn't really care who was lynched?
Not arguing this for PB, he can defend himself. But I think you raise an interesting point, I'll let PB answer before I share my thoughts.
(April 29th, 2013, 18:26)Lewwyn Wrote: Gaspar just said a lot, but also said nothing. I was actually starting to lean towards him as villager, but I was wrong as always. why would you not call out pocketbeetle for doing the same thing? Even moreso than gaspar. Why are you so fixated on the uber/Gaspar drama? are their no other candidates?
I also don't particularly like your defense from uber's accusations (if you didn't like Ryan's posts, why were you trying to lynch someone else to save him?), so lewwyn.
[/quote]
I can't believe this just happened. 
In all seriousness, I'd put Lewwyn a strong second choice to uber right now. I think his play has been a little more erratic than normal even. Zak's pulling off uber for no particular reason and then coming after me actually rings town for me. I think scum zak would be happier with the presumably easier lynch (not that uber is easier to hang than me, more that it was the way the wind was blowing.)
I've got some dirt on my shoulder, can you brush it off for me?
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Also, in the most predictable event of all time, I fucked up the tags. I hate the new forum. 
I've got some dirt on my shoulder, can you brush it off for me?
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