WW23: The Heart of Gold

[Lewwyn]

Gaspar just said a lot, but also said nothing. I was actually starting to lean towards him as villager, but I was wrong as always.
Why wouldn't Uberfish kill someone who was voting for Uberfish?! In such a small game you kill people locked onto scum and then spin their deaths however you want! Nut Gaspar doesn't really entertain that notion... I doubt many are and for that we walk in darkness.

Okay, not seeking to change your vote Lewwyn, but seeing as you won't be around at day end, could you explain the reason for your vote.

My current opinion as outlined above, is that if we lynch one of uberfish/Bigger/Mattimeo, we have a 33% chance of getting a wolf. Whereas if we lynch Gaspar and he flips village, we're still faced with the same odds except it'll be LYLO.

So why Gaspar?

Its so weird because I keep going back and forth on Gaspar. Day 1 I felt he was being intentionally vague and eventually voted for him. Then after I went to bed I thought he got more specific and more villagery. I actually liked his attack on Uberfish. But then this last post screamed wolf to me. Especially:

I think part of the trick is in a smaller game, each day of voting means a bit more. By the same token, each nightkill is more important. That's why I tried to analyze the nightkill. Do I think I have it figured out? No. But I think there's more information in there than normal. The good player to inexperienced player ratio is a little higher here as well.

The overall format of Gaspar's post is paragraph by paragraph moving through points and each paragraph leads into the point, discusses and then concludes with Gaspar backing out of making any real stance.

I'm utterly surprised how Bigger just came to Gaspar's defense. It's almost like they're working together. Someone set me up the bomb, I have no chance to survive...

[Gaspar]

You know that's how I play though, Lewwyn.

When I have a conviction, usually late in the game, I'm loud about it. But the rest of the time I try to look at both sides and evaluate. There are a lot of points in there, just not a lot of conclusions. We don't have a lot of information - where are the conclusions coming from? I'd rather lay out there what I think and then make a best choice. If I have a strong read, believe me I'll push it.

I honestly can't decide if your sort of general obtuseness is coming from being scum or not investing a lot of time in the game. That doubt is pretty much the whole reason I rate uberfish above you at the moment.

[Lewwyn]

PB - sorry for not quoting, but thats a long message

1. What is the "obvious reason" for not including yourself? sorry if that seems dense, but please answer.

2. mattimeo is not new. he started one game after me (pb13). he's played more games than you.. maybe even Ryan has? (don't remember how many of the early game you played). I don't suspect Matt but I don't see why you would give him a "newbie" waiver?

3. your formula's.. good grief.. you seem to completely overlook the possibility that ryan AND uber are innocent, and the wolves didn't really care who was lynched?

Besides that.. it is a whole bunch of words without saying much. I think you've gone from a ww playing role playing the bureaucrat to a bureaucrat role-playing a ww player. I consider myself a pretty sharp guy, but I've reread post 108 several times and it just makes my head hurt. why ruin a perfectly good game by bring algebra into it?

109 was better, but not much. that said, I'm not getting any traction, maybe I can find your packmate.

Gaspar just said a lot, but also said nothing. I was actually starting to lean towards him as villager, but I was wrong as always.

why would you not call out pocketbeetle for doing the same thing? Even moreso than gaspar. Why are you so fixated on the uber/Gaspar drama? are their no other candidates?
I also don't particularly like your defense from uber's accusations (if you didn't like Ryan's posts, why were you trying to lynch someone else to save him?), so lewwyn.

Classic scum. Let's talk about PB all post then slip in and vote for Lewwyn at the end.

Are there no other candidates? I voted Zak a lot Day 1, I'm feeling more villagery on him. Villagery on Matt. Villagery on PB. That leaves you Gaspar and Uber. So excuse me for trying to figure out which one I think is your scum partner. I should probably just vote for you, but given I think that if I did that either Gaspar or Uber would simply get lynched and more likely the village one I currently have my vote focused there.

If there is support for lynching Bigger today let me know and I'll lynch him instead. Otherwise I will vote for either Gaspar or Uber going into the night because that looks to be the split for the day and I'd rather my vote was on the one I think is most likely scum who has a chance of being lynched. But knowing my luck everyone will switch last minute and I'll end up on Gaspar alone, again.

[Lewwyn]

You know that's how I play though, Lewwyn.

When I have a conviction, usually late in the game, I'm loud about it. But the rest of the time I try to look at both sides and evaluate. There are a lot of points in there, just not a lot of conclusions. We don't have a lot of information - where are the conclusions coming from? I'd rather lay out there what I think and then make a best choice. If I have a strong read, believe me I'll push it.

I honestly can't decide if your sort of general obtuseness is coming from being scum or not investing a lot of time in the game. That doubt is pretty much the whole reason I rate uberfish above you at the moment.

That's how you play scum too.

I think it should be obvious I'm on the fence about you and Uber. I think one of you is scum. And actually the whole nightkill analysis suddenly makes me pretty sure Uber is not scum. If he were scum I believe someone who voted for him would have died. If Uber isn't scum and I think one of the two of you are scum then You're left Gaspar.

But. You're being too rational to be scum. GAHHHH Fuck you@! Funny how when you think things can't get worse they do...

Bigger

[uberfish]

I think PB makes a pretty compelling data-argument on where the scum is, even if I don't really agree with the concept of analyzing day one voting at all.

???

To me the best argument against Ryan voters is that a strong player could really see the fail there. Unfortunately, I think that's also the best argument against the Ryan non-voters.

???

I buy Serdoa and uber both thinking we need to send a message on policy lynching non-contributors. I just find the lack of pressure anywhere else to be pretty peculiar. Its incredibly lazy to watch Ryan exhibit hoof-in-mouth disease, park your vote there and be done with it. Even if I had wanted to lyncrh Ryan, I would have been talking about other players in the thread in the hopes of generating some information for later.

I'm comfortable with my play since I felt we would already have enough leads to go on today from people's attitudes on the voting, which is in fact the case. Presumably, so was Serdoa. It's not like the players who voted for me went through much of a discussion process before settling on their compromise anti-Ryan vote or pushed me or anyone else to answer questions.

I agree with PB that uberfish is probably the best information lynch. If he flips scum, then it is almost certain that the 2nd scum is among the non-uberfish voters on day one. If he flips village, then I'd say its almost certain there is no more than one scum on the Ryan voters. I'm not sure any other candidate is as strong a litmus test for future information.

This is weak. I don't see how you could be "almost certain" that no one was distancing me were I to flip scum. And if I flip village, you conclude that Matt and Bigger aren't scum together... Something that is already unlikely anyway because they both voteparked Ryan early on day 1, which is against people's instincts of how scum should be played.

Gaspar, for first the awful nightkill analysis and now this. It's clear from my point of view that Serdoa was killed because scum preferred to keep anyone that was attacking for me alive. So there's good motivation for scum to post their own interpretation of the night kill in order to "show" that I could have night killed Serdoa to pre-empt this line of reasoning. I think the reason Gaspar's logic is so bad is because it's faked - he's arguing backwards from the need to arrive at the conclusion that I should be lynched.

[uberfish]

btw, my instinct also tells me that Bigger's been buddying me a little too much and if there's a scum on the Ryan wagon it's probably him rather than Matt.

[Mattimeo]

If he flips village, then that suggests we look in Bigger's and Mattimeo's direction with slight questions to zakalwe and Gaspar, while if he flips wolf then we need to strongly look at Bigger and Mattimeo (poor you two ) and something approaching potential clearance that Gaspar, zakalwe, Lewwyn and myself are villagers.

So basically, you just want to kill him, and then have me and Bigger lined up as the next targets ready to fall regardless of what he flips? Yeah, that's definitely symptomatic of "getting more information" from his lynch.

Can we examine/ you explain the reasoning here please.
I follow the thinking, but I'm not reaching the same conclusion.
In my opinion, zalakwe, Gaspar and I all voted for uberfish, while Lewwyn expressed a post-day/early night intention that he would have voted uberfish given the opportunity.
Given that situation, a night kill on any of these would have reflected badly on uberfish and possibly incited a revenge lynch from the village (that might sound simplistic, but as Lewwyn said we are often sheeplike).
This is a positive thing to do for the wolves if uberfish is village, a bad thing to do if uberfish is a wolf. (I'm basing this on a possible village reprisal lynch having greater momentum than +/- 1 vote.)
In my opinion it makes more sense that if uberfish was a wolf, to kill one of the Group A voters instead, confident that he could argue his innocence the next day, in some part based upon it (indeed as he has already done and consequently zakalwe has changed his vote). And killing the least scummy/most veteran player(?) among the Group A voters, ie Serdoa, is therefore a sound interpretation of the events?

As zak has said, preventing an assumed vote against you is usually a better idea than killing a random, given the reactions to it is as much "framejob" as it is "defence", and you can argue WIFOM all day about it.
But then, I'm a new player who had the temerity to believe that lynching someone who wasn't contributing to the game, who would have effectively reduced LyLo to a coin flip, if not worse, was a good idea, so I suppose you should take everything I say with a grain of salt...

I keep coming back to the end of Say 1, where Gaspar was basically "I don't care who dies, someone tell me who to vote." zak and PB pointed him at uberfish, where he then stuck, throughout the night and into today. And then we get posts like #113, which look like they're helpful, but really contribute nothing. At least pb was making arguments, even if they're based on terrible assumptions...

[zakalwe]

Mattimeo, could you spell out what's so terrible about PB's assumptions?

I'm trying to decide if I can trust Lewwyn. If he's innocent, then the following pair of quotes is kind of interesting.

Gaspar voted for Uberfish and I think his reason is bad. He hopped off Bigger, but I don't know why. Bigger didn't really write anything convincing. And now Bigger has hopped off Gaspar in different direction.

Computation says Gaspar and Bigger are both scum who distance in first half the day and moved on to other targets now. But nobody's gonna believe me anyway. Everyone's going to jump on mislynch bait Ryan...

I also don't like the whole Bigger / Gaspar interaction, that reads faked on both ends. Really hard trying to act like villagers. As if Gaspar attacked Bigger and Bigger felt he had to retaliate, leading to Gaspar getting set up for a lynch which the two then tried to somehow get out of.

If you're a scum pair, and two villagers independently peg both of you as scum on day 1, would you kill one of them? I sure would. And if you did, what would be the one line of investigation that you really feared on day 2? And how might you go about defusing that threat? Ok, that's a lot of rhetorical questions, but I think you see what I'm getting at. Gaspar's approach of basing his whole day 2 scumhunting on speculating about the night kill looks odd to begin with, but maybe it was deliberately designed to be shot down, just to close down that whole line of inquiry as inherently flawed. I know I've done similar things as scum on many occasions, for example by deliberately making a weak argument against my scum buddy, hoping it will be shot down.

Of course, I'm not entirely sure that Lewwyn is innocent here, but I like much of what I've seen so far. And to his credit, he didn't try leaning on dead man Serdoa's opinions in this matter, even if he easily could have.

FYI - this may be my last chance to post until an hour or so before the deadline. My vote is still on Gaspar.

I am buzzing with anticipation!

[Lewwyn]

Whats the tally? I'll probably get it wrong...

[pocketbeetle]

Unofficial

Gaspar (4) - Mattimeo, Zakalwe, uberfish, Bigger
Uberfish (2) - pocketbeetle, Gaspar
Bigger (1) - Lewwyn