(April 30th, 2013, 02:35)Mattimeo Wrote: But then, I'm a new player who had the temerity to believe that lynching someone who wasn't contributing to the game, who would have effectively reduced LyLo to a coin flip, if not worse, was a good idea, so I suppose you should take everything I say with a grain of salt...
Care to comment on Biggers note that you've been playing as long as him?
Sorry I'm not totally au fait with the complete history of RB WWs, thought you were much newer than Bigger.
Does that mean you're both new, or have you been stringing me along a little, you evil temptress you?
Bigger's first game was the game before my first game.
The only comment I've made regarding my experience was the blatant sarcasm you quoted, so unless that somehow counts as "stringing you along" I'm going to have to plead innocence on that charge.
(April 30th, 2013, 05:28)zakalwe Wrote: Mattimeo, could you spell out what's so terrible about PB's assumptions?
To be honest, I was probably over-reacting slightly to the implications about lack of experience, and taking all his mentions of "Mattimeo and Bigger" as if they only specified me. I definitely disagree with the assertion that we were completely in the wrong to lynch Ryan - it's rather hard to win at LyLo if one of the votes you need isn't showing up.
Re-reading it without the substitution I was doing, it's actually decent. Decent enough that, in conjunction with recent posts from the two concerned, I'm feeling more comfortable about putting my vote on Bigger than Gaspar.
There being one scum on Ryan does make a measure of sense, given the numbers and voting pattern. Bigger's posts also seem significantly more weighted towards crafting excuses for things that don't need excusing, rather than actually hunting.
In addition, I'm a gullible fool and falling for Gaspar's reverse psychology.
-- Don’t forget.
Always, somewhere,
someone is fighting for you.
-- As long as you remember her,
you are not alone.
im at work and don't really have the time to reread all this crap and defend myself, unfortunately. I expect PB to put the knife in my back now (thanks matt). please look at him more closely tomorrow, I feel like I've been the only one even paying attention to his play.
Please don't go. The drones need you. They look up to you.
I am back, and thrilled to see another mislynch in the making!
(April 30th, 2013, 12:40)Mattimeo Wrote: In addition, I'm a gullible fool and falling for Gaspar's reverse psychology.
Translation: you're his scumbuddy and moving your vote now that the coast is clear.
Don't fall for this, PB. You've already promised to save Gaspar, so now Mattimeo can safely make the switch, leaving it to you to finish him off and take the blame.
Not convinced by Gaspar's defence revolving around the idea that he'd have killed Zak if he was scum, it's just too much of a WIFOM argument for me, and I simply don't believe that he would kill Zakalwe every time even if there were tactical reasons to kill someone else.
As mattimeo said, if we disregard the WIFOM factors and assume that scum are playing in a straightforward way, then the kill of Serdoa casts suspicion on Gaspar and Bigger, and not myself. I think scum were playing to try and get me lynched today, so Serdoa's kill also makes sense from a tactical point of view given that I'm innocent. But what the scum needed to do in order to secure the mislynch was try and explain away the night kill in such a way that it could be attributed to me. And that's why I think Gaspar, who brought up the subject of night kills and tried to explain them with bad logic as his main contribution to the day, is scum.
I'm also not happy about PB. His analysis assumes that scum play straightforwardly during day (by only voting for village and never scum) and deviously at night (by killing people who don't suspect them). As far as I can tell this is just to make things fit with his argument that I'm guilty. However I think he doesn't fit very well as a scum pair with Gaspar (due to overtly agreeing with each other during the day, which is rare for scum) and that Gaspar's play is more actively scummy.
(April 30th, 2013, 14:18)zakalwe Wrote: I am back, and thrilled to see another mislynch in the making!
(April 30th, 2013, 12:40)Mattimeo Wrote: In addition, I'm a gullible fool and falling for Gaspar's reverse psychology.
Translation: you're his scumbuddy and moving your vote now that the coast is clear.
Don't fall for this, PB. You've already promised to save Gaspar, so now Mattimeo can safely make the switch, leaving it to you to finish him off and take the blame.
Didn't you used to be good at this?
Anyway, regardless of how the vote plays out, at least its been close enough that the combination of the two days should give us a hint. I still think zak is town and just failing. The fact that Mattimeo switched once Bigger was on the block would give me pause that if Bigger gets lynched and flips town, Mattimeo and uber is by far the most likely combo. If he's scum, then you have to look at uber with maybe a side of zak, though that would really surprise me. If I die, it depends on the reason. If I die because we lose a tiebreak and PB never flips to Bigger, then you'd have to look at PB for not doing what he said he would do. If I die because Matt flips back, then I think its 2 of Uber, Matt, Bigger.
So anyway, while I'd prefer not to get hung now that the game has gotten interesting, there's some pretty interesting info today from all of this regardless of who flips what. Obviously you have to believe that at least one of me, Bigger and uberfish is scum for this to work, but if none of that is true, we've lost already.
I've got some dirt on my shoulder, can you brush it off for me?
So why are you both so sure that Gaspar is more scummy than Bigger?
I'm willing to listen, but comon, the latter if he is village plays such a horribly scummy villager its untrue.
@uber - the first point is just patently wrong. The reaction to nightkill analysis which quite literally everyone has pissed on is solid proof that a red herring kill makes no sense. What makes sense is to kill a guy I know will always vote for me. Literally every single game zak and I have played together since WW7 he's been on me pretty much all game regardless of our respective alliances. The only time I can recall him somewhat avoiding that hornet's nest was the time I was town and he was scum (WW12 maybe?) Read any of my old scum quiktopics/email chains - pretty much the whole night 1 conversation is me stomping up and down that we need to kill zak. This holds doubly true in a small game where each vote matters more.
Anyway, I don't want to keep talking about the nightkill thing. Its not why I'm voting for Bigger and I even couched it at the time as just a theory. As usual, whenever you have the balls to put something out there in these games, you just get lynched for it.
I've got some dirt on my shoulder, can you brush it off for me?
(April 30th, 2013, 10:29)pocketbeetle Wrote: One last thing you guys really to be thinking about:
If Gaspar is a wolf, then you need to be considering what wolf pairs that brings to the table.
Currently, it would have to be a Gaspar-Lewwyn or a Gaspar-me wolf pair to make sense, otherwise you're assuming that Gaspar's wolf buddy is bussing him.
Is a bussing really necessary at this point?
The wolves are clearly ahead at 5:2 with 2 village ability roles dead. Why bus?
Why not? If gaspar is scum the scum might think that his position is too compromised to survive the next day anyway, and want to try and make his partner look good. You haven't played for a while, but there's a lot more bussing/distancing and general scum vs scum action taking place in recent RB WW games than there used to be in the early days.
(April 30th, 2013, 14:51)Gaspar Wrote: @uber - the first point is just patently wrong. The reaction to nightkill analysis which quite literally everyone has pissed on is solid proof that a red herring kill makes no sense. What makes sense is to kill a guy I know will always vote for me.
So how does it make any sense for me to kill Serdoa if I was scum, instead of getting rid of one of 4 players that were attacking me?
