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Zakalwe is too happy. Can't he see we're losing?
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
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Well, I really am sort of reset after yesterday. I never let myself consider for even a second that uberfish might be innocent. So I need some time to reread with fresh eyes and get a different sense of the game, since I was so clearly barking up the wrong tree. I won't have time to do that until after the 24 hour mark, so it goes. But I particularly want to revisit everyone's reactions to and tone surrounding our one known scum.
I honestly don't really have the heart to defend vociferously for another 48 hours - it just gets tiring after a while. But this is pretty much the ballgame, so if there's anyone whose mind isn't already made up and wants to ask me something, I'll do my best to answer.
In the meantime, zakalwe has the two strongest factors in my mind against him - 1. He's the only living player who didn't vote for Bigger on day two and 2. Meta factors which make him the most likely of the remaining players to game the night 2 kill after PB's reveal.
I've got some dirt on my shoulder, can you brush it off for me?
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wait, what? PB ended up dead, rather than as lynchbait for conflicting claims?
I suppose the risk of a jailkeeper in the endgame was too high. What's the bet the 'irrelevant' information he was withholding was that it was 1-shot 
I'd honestly be up for a no lynch today. Bring it to 3 people rather than 4 for the "we lose if we don't hit this". Though I'm liable to be the one dying tonight if we try that, so it probably wouldn't help all that much.
I'm still trying to work out whether Gaspar's "tell me who to vote" on Day 1 was a scum tell, or if I'm just wanting to policy lynch him for it. The arrogance yesterday, I'm less sure about. Is it something he'd fake, as scum? I definitely wouldn't, but I've (mostly) learnt the problems with assuming people will react as you do...
I seem to have noticed zak much less than I normally would in a game. Pretty sure that doesn't necessarily imply anything, though, since he's usually still a presence in the thread when he's scum. The call for claims likewise doesn't imply much either way.
I do keep coming back to that niggling suspicion of Lewwyn. He sat on the Bigger wagon as he was going to sleep, expecting that it wouldn't get enough traction to be successful - and I can distinctly recall other times he's sat on other scum all day, while they didn't seem in danger of being lynched. Then, his *only* interaction yesterday was on the lines of "uber first, if he's town then pb is obv scum 'cause they both claimed similar roles".
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Look on the bright side, Lewwyn - it will all be over soon!
Gaspar, just to be clear. You're saying I'm scum because I'm more likely than anyone else to be on-line during the five minutes before the deadline. Correct?
Mattimeo, I also considered no lynch but I bet the scum will just respond with a no kill. So it's kind of pointless. I'll go along with it if you really want to, though.
If you know what I mean.
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(May 5th, 2013, 03:17)zakalwe Wrote: Look on the bright side, Lewwyn - it will all be over soon!
Gaspar, just to be clear. You're saying I'm scum because I'm more likely than anyone else to be on-line during the five minutes before the deadline. Correct?
Mattimeo, I also considered no lynch but I bet the scum will just respond with a no kill. So it's kind of pointless. I'll go along with it if you really want to, though.
Essentially, yes. Given what we know of where each player lives as well as each player's propensity for quick thinking, you're the most likely candidate. I'm hesitant to use that as too big of a tell, though, since 1. it's a little too meta for my tastes and 2. we don't actually know that the scum revoked a kill order even if it is the most likely answer.
I've got some dirt on my shoulder, can you brush it off for me?
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Zak you're doing a terrible job convincing me I shouldn't vote for you.
Mattimeo you realize I started the wagon on bigger, yes? Who between zak and Gaspar is most likely scum in your opinion?
Also it's very likely that scum didn't even see PB's early reveal. If I were scum I would have done a no kill either that night or this night. Cue Matt saying that means I'm scum... I wish I were dead.
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Well, isn't this immensely cozy! Just the four of us, and one of us is a dirty liar.
(May 5th, 2013, 05:30)Lewwyn Wrote: Zak you're doing a terrible job convincing me I shouldn't vote for you.
Ok? Then maybe you could help me out by explaining why you think I'm suspicious. I presume "he's too happy" is just a joke and not the actual reason. I've tried talking to you on a couple of occasions in this game but for some reason you just ignore me. On day 1, you said I "wasn't helping" with my vote on Mattimeo, and I asked you to clarify that, but you ignored me. Then, on night 2, you yourself said you had been "too quick" to clear Mattimeo, but you still persisted in holding my early Mattimeo vote against me, for some unspecified reason.
This isn't day 1, and there's only one scum left, so a pressure vote makes no sense, as there won't be any interaction tells. There likely won't be any future days where we can look back on this day, anyway. So if you really think I'm scum, you should tell me why, so I can defend myself.
In fact, your whole post looks a lot like you're just positioning yourself for staying on me for the first half of the day, and then switching to Gaspar towards the end. You just establish that you still suspect me, for unspecified reasons, while hinting that you could be persuaded to join me on Gaspar if I redouble my efforts. You also ask Mattimeo for his position, even though Mattimeo isn't a stated suspect of yours.
Also, I'm pretty sure Mattimeo both realized and acknowledged that you started the wagon on Bigger. That doesn't mean you were hoping it would go through on day 2. You knew that I was gunning hard for Gaspar at the time. Besides, the idea of busing your scumbuddy on day 2 or 3 is hardly a new one in 9-player games, as you should be well aware from the recent game that we won together. I still think it's more likely that Gaspar was the one who bused his buddy, because he really had no alternative, but that doesn't mean you're clear.
(May 5th, 2013, 05:22)Gaspar Wrote: Essentially, yes. Given what we know of where each player lives as well as each player's propensity for quick thinking, you're the most likely candidate. I'm hesitant to use that as too big of a tell, though, since 1. it's a little too meta for my tastes and 2. we don't actually know that the scum revoked a kill order even if it is the most likely answer.
Ok, it's an awful argument, as you're at least partly acknowledging, and I really think you should retract it completely. If not, I'm going to dig up all instances of you making a ridiculous fake vote seconds "too late" for the deadline as scum, which I'm sure happened at least twice. More importantly though, why did you assume that the kill order was revoked at the last minute? Why couldn't it be a no kill order all along, as Lewwyn says, and why couldn't the scum have targeted Uberfish after all, like PB and Uberfish speculated? You arbitrarily picked one fairly unlikely explanation for what happened, then added a terrible meta accusation on top of that, and listed it as your second most significant factor against me. So that really looks like you first decided I should be your suspect, and then looked for reasons to suspect me, rather than actually trying to understand the lack of a kill, and arriving at me as the likely explanation.
If you know what I mean.
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(May 5th, 2013, 05:30)Lewwyn Wrote: Mattimeo you realize I started the wagon on bigger, yes? Not sure how this is meant to be an ameliorating factor, given it's definitely something you've done before.
Quote:Who between zak and Gaspar is most likely scum in your opinion?
Probably Gaspar. Unless zak rolled scum role-scan for the nth game running, and that's why he tried to kill uber that night
Quote:Also it's very likely that scum didn't even see PB's early reveal. If I were scum I would have done a no kill either that night or this night. Cue Matt saying that means I'm scum... I wish I were dead.
Why would claiming that the scum appear to have done things in the same way you would have be an incriminating factor? Though I am curious as to why you would send in a no-kill order. Being extra tricksy for the sake of it doesn't usually pay off, in my experience.
-- Don’t forget.
Always, somewhere,
someone is fighting for you.
-- As long as you remember her,
you are not alone.
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Quote:Also it's very likely that scum didn't even see PB's early reveal. If I were scum I would have done a no kill either that night or this night. Cue Matt saying that means I'm scum... I wish I were dead.
Why would claiming that the scum appear to have done things in the same way you would have be an incriminating factor? Though I am curious as to why you would send in a no-kill order. Being extra tricksy for the sake of it doesn't usually pay off, in my experience.
[/quote]
It's not, but my role requires (read: post restricted) I be negative and depressed so I posted it. You obviously haven't been paying very close attention to the game. No wonder the village is going to lose.
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
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Well Zak you suck. I voted for you to see what your reaction would be versus Gaspar, and you've given me basically nothing. If you are a villager you're not helping. Going into today I thought Gaspar was scummiest, but you're killing me. Tomorrow morning I'm going to go back through all of Zak's and Gaspar's posts and make a final evaluation... which will likely end up being wrong.
Dammit, who let Pindicator make it to the final day?
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
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