Are you, in fact, a pregnant lady who lives in the apartment next door to Superdeath's parents? - Commodore

Create an account  

 
AT loves it when a plan comes together!! [Spoilers]

(May 6th, 2013, 20:32)AutomatedTeller Wrote: that's certainly true - but I think jowy's going to piss him off by asking Engineering for peace. Well, I've pretty much decided that unless I think we can kill Eden Prime, we are backing off. Getting a city (or maybe two) and 2 workers isn't bad, at all.

I probably should have backed off the instant I chose to use the GP on an academy, instead of a GA.

War without a tech advantage is very difficult...

Yes, I agree. Spending the GP on an academy was choosing one side of a fork in the path.

I agree with backing off, for now while maintaining a Defcon 3 type of war effort, maybe half of our output on military. Build up a stack of 8+ catapults and take another shot at Eden Prime. If at all possible keep those forests unchopped.

I also think that we should re-enact our Operation Lobo over taking Noveria. Noveria on its own is more of a security risk than a benefit. Its only food is the clams and the deer neither of which we'll get any time soon. So this city will just work horses for the medium term. It will tie up troops that could be used on an assult of Citadel or Eden Prime.

I do recognize that Noveria will also occupy troops of Jowy, so I don't feel too strongly on this point one way or another. Noveria now or Citadel later is a tough choice and both have benefits.

Overall, I do think that our simultaneous 2-prong attack is still the way to go if we can time it well enough. I think that we should wait for it and do it properly. I'm not sure how long it'll be before we get another GP and/or if we should just switch civics at some point.

Also for you to consider. I think that we should take Rannoch. If TT is only guarding this with 3 units. This is our best way of getting some land out of this war. As much as I don't like to provoke TT, I think its a trade off in risk.

If TT has a foothold down this way, he's much more likely to send his muskateers over to take some more land. That's why I think that the risks are balanced. Provoke TT bad, foothold also bad.

With any luck TT shrugs his shoulders and says 'easy come, easy go'. We've also stranded whatever army he has that is probably moving on the next city. If our troops are otherwise out of Jowy's land, he may take a stab at the less defensively powerful LBs that TT has. Here's hoping that Jowy is still somewhat interested in keeping some of his cities.

I hate to walk into Jowy's trap but I don't like TT that close. Let alone the fact that that's our city.
Reply

Noveria - I'm debating just burning it. force him to rebuild it, force him to garrison it against a threat - if he loses it, he loses happy resources and, probably, pisses people off (since I'm guessing he's trading fur right now)

Rannoch - that's a tough call, though it's probably easier with knights (which are, after all, kind of useless against Jowy)

Main problem is that it basically opens us up to attack in 3 places (ALF, ER and Rannoch) from 2 different civs - one of which is in a GA, in a time of dominance, the other of which is in his home territory. I don't much like it, especially as we are entering a time where I'd really prefer to be building infra. (oxford will be nice for us) More, it REALLY opens us up for an attack from TT.

My current thoughts are that we move to a more infra style - we have several places to plant cities still, that have good food sources - 1 or 2 north of V, the corn site SW of LA Law, a clam spot north of the Barb city - plus a ton of improvements for the core cities. Chances of military expansion is low right now - Jowy can wait until we unload grens/rifles - we will be able to upgrade C3 crossbows or CR3 maces/muskets to rifles and just walk through Jowy's lands - or pick up cannons and do the same thing.

I think we've done well in this war - 2 GG, highly promoted units, Jowy's basically done as a threat, plus we got a city out of it for no cost (including a happy resource!!), and a 2nd city with 2 specials.

To me, fighting TT is just a bad idea right now. If Jowy offers peace, I'll take it. I still dont' see why he's wants us to pay him for it, though. Maybe he doesnt' understand the war weariness mechanic and thinks we have 4 or 5 unhappy faces? We don't - in fact, so far, the only thing we've done to get weariness is take an (undefended) city and capture 2 workers.
Completed:  PBEM 34g (W), 36 , 35 , 5o, 34s, 5p, 42, 48 and PB 9, 18, 27, 57

Current:  PB 52.  Boudicca of Maya
Reply

also, looks like 2metra retook his city.
Completed:  PBEM 34g (W), 36 , 35 , 5o, 34s, 5p, 42, 48 and PB 9, 18, 27, 57

Current:  PB 52.  Boudicca of Maya
Reply

I know that its a risk of provoking TT right at the cusp of his power. But the alternative is having him occupy that large amount of land. Having 3 cities in close proximity helps to keep us safe as we could whip any/all of them to provide a defensive boost.

I really want to emphasize the value to him of having a foothold here. If he has that foothold, the most likely place for him to send his muskateers is down our area for some easy wins supported by this nice front line city and good roads through the jungle.

If he doesn't have that city, (and we keep the roads burnt) then he needs to march his muskateers through the jungle with long supply lines to take cities. When you think of it that way, it's maybe just as tempting for him to look at the border cities with 2metra or Cornflakes. Or he just starts planting cities in the jungle, and builds workers for chopping rather than muskateers for killing while his peak threat level ticks away.

This may well be a game-defining decision and there's no clear right answer. But I think that we should give it some serious thought about the strategic implications and not just the risk of upsetting TT.

Short term its a great move. We're vacating Jowy's land anyway; we have troops to spare at least on the defense; that's a decent city with some forests; we have workers nearby; and we have W2 maces to keep him away or at least see him coming; we're already on somewhat of a war footing with barracks and stables and Guilds is inbound imminently.

Also, our stake in the city is just as great as TT and he may very well see it that way. Its not like he invested heavily in taking that city. TT is also a builder more than a war-monger so we need to take that into consideration. We've got military cred as well for whiping out Jowy even if only partially deserved.

Also, Krill in PB5 hardly suffered diplomatically at all after bullying just about everyone out of cities that they built!

Get the trades with him first if we decide to make this move. Also, on those trades, I would totally take the Nationalism trade. This is the best food-to-hammers conversion around. And we're pretty weak on hammers and reasonably good on food. I could live without Guilds for a while given that we're pulling back. And we don't need guilds for dealing with TT. He's protecting a city with no culture with a couple of unpromoted maces.

Also, if someone else tech Compass, we'll get nothing for it in place of 2 awesome techs like Education and Nationalism. I think that Guilds can wait (unless you think we'll be first there and then trade?)
Reply

If Jowy got Nationalism,....that's going to be difficult,...
Reply

(May 7th, 2013, 09:53)AutomatedTeller Wrote: Noveria - I'm debating just burning it. force him to rebuild it, force him to garrison it against a threat - if he loses it, he loses happy resources and, probably, pisses people off (since I'm guessing he's trading fur right now)

Well I wouldn't burn it. Sure it's not a great city short term but it'll still put out hammers for us, and eventually we'll get that deer.

By burning it we also lose:
-Threat level on Citadel. We no longer tie up so many of his troops there.
-His culture might get the happy resources. We're more likely to deny him their happy or trade value if we take and hold the city.
-The city's on a hill so 3/4 promoted LBs in there and he'll take an take an awful hammer exchange on that.
-No amount of pissing people off will cause them to stop gifting Jowy tech. Its simply better for them, no matter what, that we don't have his cities.

(May 7th, 2013, 09:53)AutomatedTeller Wrote: Rannoch - that's a tough call, though it's probably easier with knights (which are, after all, kind of useless against Jowy)
Easier, but not necessary given that we have cats and promoted units against a culture-less city. We should be able to make a move on him before he can sufficiently reinforce.

(May 7th, 2013, 09:53)AutomatedTeller Wrote: Main problem is that it basically opens us up to attack in 3 places (ALF, ER and Rannoch) from 2 different civs - one of which is in a GA, in a time of dominance, the other of which is in his home territory. I don't much like it, especially as we are entering a time where I'd really prefer to be building infra. (oxford will be nice for us) More, it REALLY opens us up for an attack from TT.
Noted, its a risk. But I think it closes down an attack from TT just as much as it opens one up. He's not that invested in that city right now. He may be very much more invested in the area once he has a foothold. I think that the 3 cities also provide more protection although we are open to forking. Still it's better to have 3 cities on the defense than only have 2 cities on the defense. smile

(May 7th, 2013, 09:53)AutomatedTeller Wrote: Chances of military expansion is low right now -
Except for the easy wins, which this is. Other than Jowy, its not going to get much easier in the future. Tech parity, or near tech parity will be a fact of life in this game. That's why we need to keep pushing for production at every opportunity.

PB5 Krill dominated that game by completely ignoring tech and only focussing on production. Not exactly the same game, but close enough that I think that we need to be mindful of the lessons learned in that game.

(May 7th, 2013, 09:53)AutomatedTeller Wrote: My current thoughts are that we move to a more infra style - we have several places to plant cities still, that have good food sources - 1 or 2 north of V, the corn site SW of LA Law, a clam spot north of the Barb city - plus a ton of improvements for the core cities.
I think that we should push to land those cities too. The infrastructure, not so much. That's playing the tech game in a "tech parity fact of life" game.

(May 7th, 2013, 09:53)AutomatedTeller Wrote: Chances of military expansion is low right now - Jowy can wait until we unload grens/rifles - we will be able to upgrade C3 crossbows or CR3 maces/muskets to rifles and just walk through Jowy's lands - or pick up cannons and do the same thing.
We have to assume that Jowy will also have cannons and rifles. Its a near certainty. We'll only finish off Jowy by greatly exceeding his production and more cities is the way to do that.

(May 7th, 2013, 09:53)AutomatedTeller Wrote: I think we've done well in this war - 2 GG, highly promoted units, Jowy's basically done as a threat, plus we got a city out of it for no cost (including a happy resource!!), and a 2nd city with 2 specials.
I agree that the war hasn't been to hard on us and maybe even a net benefit overall. Still, like sunk costs in economics, this has no bearing on the future. If anything our 2GG and high promoted units means that opportunity cost of future military campaigns is relatively lower, and that that we should continue such campaigns.

(May 7th, 2013, 09:53)AutomatedTeller Wrote: To me, fighting TT is just a bad idea right now.
I agree, but it might also be the best timing on an eventual, inevitable bad idea. War with TT is not guaranteed, but I really can't see him bypassing this area if he's got that city.

(May 7th, 2013, 09:53)AutomatedTeller Wrote: If Jowy offers peace, I'll take it. I still dont' see why he's wants us to pay him for it, though. Maybe he doesnt' understand the war weariness mechanic and thinks we have 4 or 5 unhappy faces? We don't - in fact, so far, the only thing we've done to get weariness is take an (undefended) city and capture 2 workers.
Once TT captures the next city or next 2 cities of Jowy, then there's no further reason for peace. Jowy had his chance at peace; he had a chance to save those cities and he choose not to take it. Once those cities are gone, what further reason for peace do we have, if, like you said, we're not experiencing war weariness?

None, I say. Let's keep our options open once that boat that Jowy's cities are on has sailed.
Reply

well, fighting TT in 5-10 turns may not be a bad idea. or we might be fighting for our life against cornflakes (though I think his 1 gold for 1 gold trade means he wants to be at peace).

What's a strong enough force in ALF to hold against jowy's attack? bearing in mind that basically that entire force we see in Eden Prime could show up, along with another elephant and, of course, maces and xbows.

How do we hold ALF AND Rannoch AND ER, all on flat land, against two armies? AND defend V adquately against a possible TT attack up there? he has no cities on the lake, so we don't have to worry about being boated.

Basically, to take 1 city, we have to radically increase our military, maybe by as much as if we were just going to kill TT. Or, we could radically increase our military and kill jowy.

I dunno - maybe I'm looking more at that as the right way to go. it's either:

1) Kill jowy
2) Hold off jowy and attack TT
3) Hold off jowy and attack cornflakes
4) HOld off jowy and attack commodore
5) Hold off jowy and build infra.

I only like 1 and 5, to be honest. Unless we are sure TT will accept peace immediately, I think attacking him is suicide - and I don't think we need to take large risks right now.
Completed:  PBEM 34g (W), 36 , 35 , 5o, 34s, 5p, 42, 48 and PB 9, 18, 27, 57

Current:  PB 52.  Boudicca of Maya
Reply

(May 7th, 2013, 12:08)AutomatedTeller Wrote: well, fighting TT in 5-10 turns may not be a bad idea.
I'm certainly not suggesting that we attack him while our army is still in Jowy's land. Definately not suggesting that. Only once we get back could we consider doing that. Or at least if we're sure of getting back and we have enough other military to make that move. Still, 5T is better than 10T.

Well let's think about that timing. Its only going to be a few more turns until he attacks the next Jowy city. So 3/4/5 turns is probably optimal in that sense. He's going to be committed to holding that city, which is pretty far from his territory. He'll fear a counter attack from Jowy just as much as more sniping from us. Those units should stay put. The more turns means he might get cultural control and he might get more reinforcements down there. Essentially 3/4/5 turns from now he's hit the point of no return.

Remember that, as of right now, his power is lower than ours and he's going to be more overextended after taking Jowy's second city. I think that there's a very high likelihood that he'll make peace, if nothing else, to keep Ferros from both Jowy and us.

This move pushes his interest in the area Westward which means that his borders will touch Commodore's in time. That's good for us.

Now on the 3 vs 2 cities on defense. Yes, this city combo puts us in a bad position against Jowy. He can perform a fork on the same approach path as we were taking for the Eden Prime/Rannoch fork. So the forest WW of Horizon must be controlled and all the forests around rannoch need to be chopped. Well all the forests everywhere need to be chopped. (as an aside, I hope that's where you're sending our new workers, Qunicy and SWAT for forest chops,...). But I think that we have a 3-way defense of Rannoch, Horizon and other city (sorry, I'm struggling with old maps or half complete maps while I write this,...busy today. frown EE of Rannoch. So I don't think that that's a real liability. And against TT I think that positiioning our troops there is better, not worse.

(May 7th, 2013, 12:08)AutomatedTeller Wrote: How do we hold ALF AND Rannoch AND ER, all on flat land, against two armies? AND defend V adquately against a possible TT attack up there? he has no cities on the lake, so we don't have to worry about being boated.

Catapults and Knights smile Jowy and TT are facing the same tradeoff. TT will be defening Ferros against both Jowy and us. Jowy will be defending Eden Prime against both TT and us. So its not strictly a liability for us.

In a sense we shouldn't have to fight off both armies simultaneously, althought it could happen. We just need to have enough deterrant that neither of them want to take a stab at us. It's hard to imagine that TT would want to ally with Jowy because Jowy is pretty close to a non-factor. Its much more likely that TT will simply want to take our lands. Having a mobile stack of cats and Knights and flashing them once in a while will help to ensure that we're not double teamed.

If you're double teaming someone, you still have to worry about being 'the one' that takes the brunt of the defensive attack. Both attackers will tend to hold back waiting for the other to make the first move. Without diplo a successful double teaming has low odds. So I wouldn't worry too much about that. Real risk is that TT just straight up takes a stab at us.
Reply

Let's talk about TT's reaction:

1. TT goes emo ballistic over losing Rannoch. If he was an emotional firecracker or highly irrational, then I'd say that's a risk. Instead, I'd say that TT is more conservative and pretty fair minded from what I've seen. He's likely going to realize why he took that city; figure that it probably hardly cost him everything; look at the relaitve power; and calculate that its better to hold Ferros than get in a tiff (right now anyway). LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME.

2. TT vigorously attempts to retake the city. But in a calculated, non-emotional response way. Well that means that TT definately has strong ambitions in the area. Which means we're going to come to blows anyway and its better that we do it now while our army is deployed in this area. Reasonable odds, but indicates that we're be warring sooner than later. LOWER ODDS because risks losing Ferros.

3. TT concedes. Calculates that Ferros is better than nothing. Doesn't likely hold much grudge due to the ease of the city capture, but looks forward to Muskateers. Commodore now borders him almost as much as we do. There's also 2metra and Cornflakes. Anything could happend. Most likely scenario.

There are other ways to mitigate the fallout. Showup with a large stack that he can't defend against. Offer him gold for city. 200 gold or something? Maybe start with 100 gold? That way, if he refuses we resort to the military solution. But he could very well just accept. Its easier to swallow if you had a choice. Also, he gets to keep his army that way so that's better than losing a city and troops and not getting 100 gold.

So maybe I'm just convincing myself, but when I look at it this way, its hard not to see it as an optimal path.
Reply

My imagining of how lurkers are summarizing our interaction in the lurker thread (with tongure firmly in cheek - I'm enjoying our discussions wink)

AT: We are financial, we need some commerce
MM: Commerce is good, can we kill something?
AT: We should build more cities
MM: Can we kill something? By the way, beware for people killing us.
AT: I am aware of threats and there are none
AT: Crap.
MM: Do not despair!!
AT: Ok, killed him, let's go kill someone! Here is my complicated plan for doing that!!
MM: I like it - can i complicate it some?
AT: I like it, but if we make it more complicated, it's better.
MM: We should be careful that our opponent doesn't get caught up in tech.
AT: There's no way our opponent will get caught up in tech
AT: Crap. Well, let's keep going - he's still behind, and in several turns, we'll be able to kill most of his stack in the city.
AT: Crap.
MM: Let's go kill someone else!
AT: Can I be a builder?
MM: No, let's kill!!!


(btw - that's not meant to be a pointed message or anything, or a hint to change behavior, or anything like that. I just thought it was funny...)
Completed:  PBEM 34g (W), 36 , 35 , 5o, 34s, 5p, 42, 48 and PB 9, 18, 27, 57

Current:  PB 52.  Boudicca of Maya
Reply



Forum Jump: