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and screws rowain, eh? doesnt matter since he isn't here?
you don't have a lot of leverage here azza. anyway if Rowain and Pin end up in the same room at the end of today, then one of them probably will lose, and thats pretty much a "cross your fingers" for both of them.
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Rowain wants to avoid being in the same room as the president. Reds keep the prez here, Rowain's happy.
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well regardless you're relying on them to send 1R1B, which is a 33% chance(less than that if you factor in the possibility of them sending Rowain- although i do think that is unlikely). if he goes with us he at least has a 50% chance
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OOC
How is that a 33% chance?
There not randomly choosing who to send (as you seem to think) its a process based on who the elected thinks gives tem the most chance at victory, and iiuc b/r was what was determined earlier.
(If it was totally random, it would be greater then 33%, because each has more combos then if its concentrated).
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Ignoring Rowain, if randomly selected it's 25% 2r, 25% 2b, 50% 1r1b. So slightly less for each of those factoring him in.
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No, azza, because they aren't drawing names out of a hat. They are making a decision, and your plan depend on them picking one choice out of three
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The point is, they're less likely to go for two of one then they are for one of each, as that way there's less pressure for them on guessing our selection right, and works to maintain the status quo (which the blue/grey dominated panel wants, but which the rainbow Q is willing to overthrow  )
/OOC
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(May 11th, 2013, 01:09)Bigger Wrote: No, azza, because they aren't drawing names out of a hat. They are making a decision, and your plan depend on them picking one choice out of three
If it's randomly selected, it's a slightly less than 50% chance.
If it isn't randomly selected, the odds you assign to the possibilities are completely meaningless because you simply have no idea what choices they're biased towards.
Either way, implying that it's a 33% chance at best is pure baloney.
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I think Bigger was right. The key issue is whether they send the bomber.
Would Control Room Blue send the bomber? I don't think so. If they keep him, and get the president in return, then its a Blue win. If they keep him and don't get the president, Blue is no worse than before.
But if they send the bomber, and don't get the president in return, then they're gambling on the Barracks retaining blue control or else the bomber is a free agent again. And if the bomber and president switch rooms, then we are no worse than before.
I'm sorry, it's hard to write clearly about these things. A whiteboard would be better. But I think that, not knowing what we're going to do, the Control Room gets a better payoff from keeping the bomber. And that being the case, I think we should play to that by sending the president + another blue, and try to lock down the game now.
The worst case scenario, as I see it, is that the Barracks becomes red controlled with the bomber inside, in which case Blue still has a coin-flip to win.
The rest of the team has probably already got on board this already, I'm really trying to just sort it out in my own head. Bigger, I think you need to send two blues.
Finally, Pindicator - I think I've got this right, but tell me if not. If you stay here, then the best thing for you would be for Blue to keep the bomber in the Control Room and send the President back in here on the last swap, is that correct?
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Just a Thought for the Day: If the bomber is who I believe it is, they've had a pretty sucky game, being kept trapped in a blue majority room. I feel bad for them, and I think it's a weakness in the game design that they don't really have much ability to control their own destiny.
Of course, maybe Red has talked Rowain around and taken control of the Control Room. In which case, Game On!
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