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I think if we single-mindedly rushed for GLH we'd have an excellent chance. The IND civs are probably going to waste time with Henge and Oracle  We've got some advantages:
+ Accelerator for lighthouse, and 30 hammers for +2 food in the capital is a fantastic investment anyway.
+ We have the myst prereq bonus for Masonry.
+ Craploads of forests and not much for cheap workers to do without chopping them
Still it's fair that researching masonry (and maybe sailing too early) delays early growth a lot, plus opportunity cost of 200 hammers.
Anyway let's not forget the bright side: we're surprisingly competitive now in forum view count. 
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Of course, if we uncover a field of amazing resources SE, then I have no problem at all to move 1S :P
Well, we don't know the extend of this sea/lake. What I learned from PB9 is that you can do some cheesy moves with boats if you plan it well. If we share the lake with an opponent, that opponent will definitely take a look at the option to boat our capital. I don't think we can guarantee that the capital will not a border city.
I'm pretty torn as well, but it feel as if 1W is slightly better, but also SIP has some good arguments for it.
It's good that we have 48 hours for the first turn :P
May 12th, 2013, 08:16
(This post was last modified: May 12th, 2013, 08:16 by WilliamLP.)
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Yeah, it's great to hash these things out, and I'm coming to your side that scout NE, then evaluate, should be the first move. It's a good point that we don't know anything about the geography. It seems like we ought to be able to eventually have a city SW across the water, and also S along the coast, which would make the capital a non-border city. But who knows.
I don't want to be the guy getting cheesed on with boats. I'd rather be the guy cheesing with boats. Another argument for early sailing? 
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(May 12th, 2013, 08:02)WilliamLP Wrote: I think if we single-mindedly rushed for GLH we'd have an excellent chance. The IND civs are probably going to waste time with Henge and Oracle We've got some advantages:
+ Accelerator for lighthouse, and 30 hammers for +2 food in the capital is a fantastic investment anyway.
+ We have the myst prereq bonus for Masonry.
+ Craploads of forests and not much for cheap workers to do without chopping them
Still it's fair that researching masonry (and maybe sailing too early) delays early growth a lot, plus opportunity cost of 200 hammers.
Anyway let's not forget the bright side: we're surprisingly competitive now in forum view count.
Do you think so? I thought that it was well known that GLH is one of the most powerful wonders in the game.
All of our IND opponents have the prereq for masonry. (according to civfanatic it is myst. or mining)
ʥ Sisu Huayna Capac of Russia (FIN / IND / Hunting / Mining)
Azza is Augustus of China (IND / IMP / Agri / Mining / Chok).
SpaceBrickNowhere DuGaulle of Byzantium (IND / Cha / Myst / Wheel / Catas).
2 of them will start chopping much earlier than us too. So I'm a bit sceptical we can beat them... The thing is, we already have a sub-start, and I worry that the opportunity cost might be too high if we fail.
What about making a mad dash for the GL instead? Our starting techs, as well as the need for early fishing, fall nicely in place for its requirements.
I hope the high view count is positive, and not in the form of: "look at what THEY are thinking!  " 
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What I mean is that we'll have both prereqs for masonry, so we'd get the 40% research discount instead of their 20%.
I could be wrong, but I have a hard time seeing someone being IND in this game and deciding to ignore both Henge and Oracle.
GLib is much later down the road since Aesthetics + Lit is like 800 beakers. I've never been blown away by it and it needs to be in the capital to be really good but maybe I'm missing something. It seems inferior to just investing in an additional city that can sustain a couple or a few scientist specialists?
Random stab-in-the-dark tech order:
Fishing -> Mining -> BW -> Pottery -> Agri (maybe hunting depending on what we scout). Yes Agri reduces Pottery beakers but I think we may need cottages ASAP.
Then Sailing + Masonry, if GLH dash makes sense. AH first if not.
This ignores religion, though Masonry is a path to Judaism. We'll need to be informed by whether there's any happy around.
Anyway, we'll have a lot of time to consider it with more map info... There's no way I'd want to do an extreme beeline, like wonder before settler.
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(May 12th, 2013, 08:58)WilliamLP Wrote: What I mean is that we'll have both prereqs for masonry, so we'd get the 40% research discount instead of their 20%.
I could be wrong, but I have a hard time seeing someone being IND in this game and deciding to ignore both Henge and Oracle.
I forgot about your first point, good point.
I guess the second point depends strongly on their starting position. If they would have the same starting position as us, wouldn't they be thinking the same thing as we do now?
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(May 12th, 2013, 09:19)Plunder Wrote: If they would have the same starting position as us, wouldn't they be thinking the same thing as we do now?
Maybe? Brick and co. are IND with Myst. Going for Henge on this start for them is probably a really easy decision.
Just how much is the IND advantage? They save 66 beakers off the 200 for GLH. We save 30 off the LH itself. It's a significant advantage but not overwhelming. We'd be banking on prioritizing it more and more carefully simming and microing it than the other players.
What do we know about them? Azza I just know as the guy (sorry) who's been knocked out early in several PBs against a lot of elite players. Is he someone who's going focus an early micro plan on a singular goal? I don't know. My feeling is not and that he's a steady and solid player but he's also way more experienced than us in PB. (Hard to believe, I know! )
The unpronounceable artist formerly known as Sisu I have no idea about.
Fail gold at 2 beakers per hammer is just bad, it's not horrifyingly bad given we need beakers badly.
Btw I'm not convinced either, just trying to make the best case for it for you to shoot down At worst we have the diversion of trying to build it as fast as possible in sims after having some more map info.
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Btw, at this point, any objection to being promoted to a team member, and I'd change the thread title? Something like "Team WillPlunder". I'd ask in the org thread first, but can't imagine there'd be a problem.
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brick is also cha, so additional happiness from monuments... I agree that henge seems like a no-brainer for them.
I have no good idea about Azza, he posts very little in pb9. I was not really impressed by his evaluation of his starting position (and subsequent placement of his second city). But he sticks around and plays his turns even while clearly loosing the game, so that's a plus for him at least :P
We needs crazy micro'ing, but I guess GLH is not unthinkable. But it also depends on the land we uncover, maybe if there are very few bodies of water nearby, the wonder somewhat looses its magic.
When does the game actually start?
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