Brick by Brick (Spoiler Alert!)

[TheHumanHydra]

While I don't have the two-plus hours to play the save right now (not that it matters since Serdoa can't play tomorrow anyway), I can elaborate a little on events last turn at the front (I promise I have a bunch of pictures saved to show you once I'm able to sort through them all). Note I haven't opened this new save yet; I have no idea what may have happened on the others' turns.

Let's see, what's the last thing you saw (in my thread) ... ah, yes. So t140 I moved my whole army to the hill 1NE of de_nuke. On his turn, Azza attacked me with 10 catapults, 5 knights, 3 musketmen, 1 maceman, and 1 more musketman, in that order. I destroyed all 10 catapults, obviously, then lost 3 knights and 1 musketman to their counterparts, killing 2 knights, 3 musketmen, and 1 maceman. Elsewhere, we traded singular triremes. All told, that's 266 hammers lost for me to 688 for him. His catapults and knights also did collateral and flanking damage to almost all my units.

On my turn, I bombarded the city down to 5% defence with my 7 most-damaged catapults, then promoted the remaining 3 to Barrage I and sent them against the city. 1 withdrew. I attacked with 2 musketmen, all 10 macemen, 1 knight, and the 1 rifleman, losing both musketmen and a pair of macemen to mildly poor luck. I destroyed the 3 musketmen, 4 pikemen, 1 catapult, and 1 archer left in the city, and razed it. I then used Azza's newly-decultured roads to kill a knight and 3 more catapults out in the open and capture 2 workers, which Azza will presumably retake next turn. All told, that's 297 hammers lost for me to 607 for him. Of course, I'm rather sleepy right now, so I may have messed up my addition somehow.

THH - 297 + 266 + 180 = 743 hammers lost total
Azza - 607 + 688 + 221 = 1516 hammers lost total, plus cities of de_cbble, de_nuke

That's a pretty good hammers-ratio. That probably means I've screwed up my calculations. I'll double-check them when next I'm able to report, and maybe add in the exact units like before if I have time. At the end of the war, maybe I can dredge up the (comparatively miniscule) figures from our last war (waaaay back) and add them in.

Anyway, a good turn, even if I've miscalculated. We'll see what the interturn has brought.

Edit: This post looked a little dry without a picture. Here are my dispositions as of the end of my turn. You can see unit totals marked in with my usual system:

[TheHumanHydra]

I wasn't able to do a hasty attack on de_dust2 with my knights because Azza's catapults damaged them too much, so they couldn't take down the pike in the city. So I made Erwin Rommel a super-medic and sat tight, covering them with the couple rifles in range. Azza lost 3 cats on his turn and 3 on mine to miscellaneous attacks; that's 198 hammers lost for him, but he did buy himself a turn. Speaking of which, taking de_nuke actually cost him a turn on Rifling; I'm pleased about that. I think Old Harry just discovered Gunpowder; he's first in score for the first time in a while! (He also took Azza's border city.) His Golden Age ended, though; I'm sure he'll start another soon enough. Having finished Military Tradition, I bulbed most of Chemistry and finished it at 40% research, saving a bit of gold; I also got a bit from incidental plundering. I stopped drafting; I want to let the anger cool down a bit since war-weariness is increasing. Jails are going up, which is good, and I'm about to start spreading a second religion around (almost all my cities are Taoist now; time for Confucianism, and hopefully Judaism soon too). There are also some miscellaneous happiness buildings I can put up. The plan currently is to tech Steel (having one-turned Chemistry with the bulb ...) and go after Old Harry with a true Napoleonic army - cannon, cavalry, riflemen: Plan Wellington. I don't think I'll be able to build enough catapults in the next few turns to do Marlborough (rifles alone), and as I said I've stopped drafting. Also Old Harry's army is just too big right now: 13 maces, 13 horse archers, 19 catapults plus other stuff. Soon-to-be-outdated, but could hit hard with collateral, and he could build more. Lots of cannon for me, hopefully.

[TheHumanHydra]

Sorry, one was a pike, not a catapult: 205 hammers.

And here's my army:

[TheHumanHydra]

Destroyed 4 knights, 4 catapults, 1 pikeman ... and de_dust2 at the cost of 1, yes 1, knight. Yep, won a couple coin-flips there. 60 more hammers lost for me, 401 for him. Also, Azza took back his two workers last turn, which I forgot to mention: 80 more for me. Other than that, my units mostly sat tight, healing.

According to my calculations, three things will happen in roughly six turns, give or take: I will discover Steel, all my draft unhappiness will wear off, and I will I think gain city visibility on most of Old Harry's cities. At that point I plan to draft out another two rounds of riflemen (roughly 20 more) and commence building cannon. In the meantime, my cities will build happiness buildings and catapults; Aquanauts can build infinite two-turn cavalry (oh, I guess I didn't mention that - I built the Heroic Epic there - one turn with overflow. Also finished the Moai Statues in Pirates). In nine turns, my next Great Person should be born, and there's a high probability it will be a type I can start another Golden Age with. So hopefully I will be building cannon while in Golden Age, and somewhere in there declare war on Old Harry and finish this thing. Azza and Serdoa may launch diversionary attacks I will have to defend against. It is unclear what kind of units Old Harry will have at that point; he just discovered Guilds, and his tech rate will vary wildly depending on whether he is able to initiate another Golden Age or not, and what if anything he bulbs. Azza just discovered Rifling.

Currently I want to swing my forces down at de_train and de_season, then come up through my own territory; I don't know if that'll take too long.




de_train is currently guarded by an archer and a catapult, though obviously I expect whipped rifles there presently.

[TheHumanHydra]

Oh, one other aspect of my plan I forgot: I was thinking about techs and realized there are none I really want that I can get before I expect the game to be over. Assembly Line for infantry, sure, but I have to go through Corporation and Steam Power to get it and it and Steam Power are expensive techs. So after Steel I might just turn off research entirely and upgrade all my knights to cavalry or something. Anyone know what it costs to upgrade catapults to cannon on Quick (or even on Normal)?

[TheHumanHydra]

I am pissed. Old Harry has snuck over to Military Science in the space of, like, two turns somehow, which means I can't attack him. Not now, not in a few turns, not with massed cannon, not with massed cavalry. He'll have grenadiers to kill my rifles by the time they could reach to him, cannon when I will, and rifles to kill my cavalry by the time I could build enough of them. Frak it all. Old Harry was supposed to draft a bunch of muskets in a vain attempt to stop me, which would wither before my City Raider cannon, reach Rifling just a moment too late (like Azza), then finally concede so this dang game could end and I could stop stressing about playing turns, actually have time to report in PB 10, and stop giving myself an ulcer trying not to lose this game I've done so well in. Frak it all, now I'll have to either attack an opponent with an equal army, equal technology, and a greater land-base (17 cities with de_inferno to my 11) in a game that heavily favours the defence, or try and out-tech him to Assembly Line by a significant margin while maintaining sufficient defences, dealing with blasted war-weariness, and allowing said land-base to grow and prosper and give him a better teching-base. AND THIS IN THE GAME I WANTED TO END QUICKLY SO I COULD PLAY MY OTHER GAMES AND HAVE A LIFE. Or, you know, we could just play for 50 more frakking turns till we all have tanks and bombers and it's Christmas!

I'm going to post in the tech thread and try to negotiate a new, much slower turn pace that I can actually deal with; I don't think Serdoa or Azza will be adverse, though Old Harry will probably be disappointed. And despite having held the turn for 24 hours already, I think I'm going to hold it for 24 more, 'cause I can't think straight to figure out what to do right now, and it's on Old Harry's head for playing so blasted well. From now on - hold me to this, people - I'm only going to play in games I know beyond the shadow of a doubt I'm going to lose in the Middle Ages, so I don't have the stress of doing well and feeling it incumbent on me to play my best so I don't throw away a game I could have won. Yes, Seven, Krill, Commodore, Sullla, I do want to play against you (in some unseen future where my current games actually end), not because I think I'm anywhere near as good as you (I'm manifestly not), but so I can lose, and get my Civ-fix without the stress of (maybe) winning. Or maybe I'll make a point of playing more like in pbem 45 from now on, though that's not very satisfying (no, I have no more clue than you do the reason for the disparity in my skill).

tl;dr I can't deal with the emotional intensity and temporal demands of a game I'm winning(-ish, for now). I'm going to talk to the other players about a reduced turn-pace; meanwhile, I need to decide whether to do this German-style or Soviet.* Dishearteningly, both lost.

* German-style, First and Second World Wars: Launch desperate military gambles to eliminate opponents before they grow too strong. Result: military defeat, eventual destruction of state.
Soviet-style, Cold War: Attempt to compete economically with a rival growing ever stronger. Result: economic and political collapse.

Edit: if ever there was a time for that oft-remarked cycle of mine to manifest itself, now is it: panic, craft a plan, prosecute that plan to victory. I need a way to put 20 cavalry and/or 20 cannon into Old Harry's land (plus my oodles of rifles and everything else) STAT, before he can build a single grenadier (yeah, right).

[Commodore]

Dude, I hear you. Warfare at this point onward sucks. Could you post an overview of the front(s) at large?

[novice]

What I typically do at this stage of the game is call in Spaceman.

[TheHumanHydra]

Thank you for your support, guys. Commodore, I'll get you your overview shot as soon as I manage to get this turn played. This decision of whether to attack or tech is still causing me serious RL stress. Hopefully I'll be able to lay out my thought processes once I finally manage to reach a decision.

[TheHumanHydra]

My nervous breakdown finally subsided enough for me to play (plus ... I took a day off work). I have a plan. First, though, the front, and some other areas, as requested by Commodore:




You can see the ruins of de_cbble, de_nuke, and de_dust2. I decided to wheel my army around and take cs_italy, which I intend to keep (need to counterbalance Old Harry's now 17 cities, and with the silver and a courthouse it should hopefully be able to pay for itself). Miscellaneous units will take and burn cs_havana next turn unless it's heavily reinforced, ridding cs_italy of Azzan cultural pressure. I would go take Azza's other cities for the capture gold, but I want my army at home to defend against Old Harry and take advantage of any opportunities that present themselves on that front (the cavalry's already riding home):




de_inferno, home of the Mausoleum of Mausollus, burns on Old Harry's eastern frontier. He started another Golden Age immediately upon capturing it, as expected. His army's heading home.

Old Harry's capital and shrine city, Barnet, is delightfully close to our border, and can be forked on the first turn of war with cavalry.

Here's my interior:




In case it isn't clear - the toroidal world-wrap can be confusing - the previous screenshot was to the immediate northeast, and the one before due west of this one. Aquanauts recently became my Heroic Epic city and can produce two-turn cavalry (the actual unit this time) with exact hammers (I was able to pop out the Heroic Epic in one turn using overflow). It's going to build a jail next, though, to combat its 11, probably 12 soon, war-weariness.

Hydranauts has been going all-out on specialists (three spies, an engineer, two merchants, two scientists - basically the maximum of everything but artists) to try and get a Great Person suitable for a three-man Golden Age before Wild West, with the Great Library and National Epic, puts out another practically-guaranteed Great Scientist. The spies are actually helpful in this instance because they're polluting the pool, which is good here, and, with the jail modifier, fast-tracking me to visibility on Old Harry's cities, which will be of immense benefit in war.

Wild West and Machu Picchu (below) will start on a pair of settlers next turn to fill in my last two "interior" city sites - you can see the signs north of Hydranauts and west of Legoland. With cs_italy, that'll give me 14 to Old Harry's 17, a ratio I'm comfortable with (I've operated under a city deficit the entire game).

Southward:




I've spread Taoism basically everywhere; now I'm starting onto Confucianism and Judaism for the Free Religion happiness. Otherwise, cities are doing miscellaneous happiness and infrastructure builds before going over to military production or perhaps building wealth to speed me on my way to ... well, read on to find out. I haven't drafted for the last couple turns - normally this would prompt me to revolt to Representation (to go with Mercantilism)/Free Speech, but the immense happiness deficit that would cause in this situation would negate all possible economic gain. HR/Nat/Svy/Merc/FR it shall remain.

So, all this sounds rather peaceful. What happened to turning around and attacking Old Harry in a few turns? The answer is this:




Boo. Now what can my 25 drafted riflemen do?

I'm not sure I'm capable of laying out the whole of the strenous and paralyzing thought-pattern that resulted from this solitary fact in a coherent manner. Basically it boiled down to a premise: Old Harry is teching faster than I thought and has reached rough military technological parity, capable of building an appropriate counter-unit to my own forces. This makes him capable of resisting me in the short-term, and, in the long-term, his research and production capacities can only become stronger. This seemed like a no-win scenario, morally crushing in that I'd seemed to be dominant for so long in this game, and Old Harry to be on the very bottom, and now there was nothing I could do to prevent his ascent to victory.

To clarify, Old Harry had (has) more than half again as many cities as I do (17 to 11), a tech rate as quick as can be, the capacity for seemingly-endless Golden Ages, a military as strong as mine, and the capability to build (or upgrade en masse to) the one unit that can annihilate all those I had just expended so much effort on drafting (remember the unhappiness). This is his field army (ie. those units in the vicinity of de_inferno) as of this turn:




Look at all those catapults! And all those macemen could be upgraded to grenadiers with just a few turns' gold - or the catapults to cannon after just a few turns more for Steel. I believe he's already begun whipping grenadiers. I do not want to walk into that death-trap. 17 cities' worth of ground would swallow me in grenadiers even if I could defeat his initial army, which with all that collateral I find a dicey proposition. It would be like Serdoa at Exeter all those turns ago ...

For reference, here's my army after ending turn, when those two cavalry were produced:




17 or 18 of those riflemen are at home ready to defend against Old Harry or anyone else. Everything else of note is in Azza's land, fighting who I thought was my last major rival in this game. It would take the better part of 10 turns to march them into Old Harry's land where I showed you. If they were in position now, this turn or next, I would attack, before Old Harry's army was in position, before it could be upgraded, before it could heal, and before he could whip a dozen-or-two grenadiers - or cannon. But they're not. What are my options?

The one I was leaning toward the first couple days was to attack anyway - abandon fighting Azza, march the army straight home with no detours, give my cities over to full military production, resume drafting despite the unhappiness - maybe running the cultural slider - turn off research for three or four turns, upgrade all my knights to cavalry while en route, and hope to ruddy heck 25 cavalry could hold his hordes of grenadiers off my riflemen long enough for my stack to do some serious damage. I could be attacking with 70+ units, most of them state-of-the-art, in less than 10 turns. To be honest, I still will do this if Old Harry shows any sign of slackness in his military preparations - not teching Steel, no gold in the treasury for upgrades, insufficient grenadiers produced. But he won't be slack. He knows he's public enemy no. 1.

No, at long last I reconsidered the economic option. I looked ahead, and realized I might be able to impose a no-win scenario on Old Harry in 10 or 20 turns. Take a look:




Old Harry obviously gunned for Military Science when he realized his number might soon be up, attaining a reliable counter-unit well in time, with the possibility of an additional unit type (cannon) for additional strength or to go on the offence if he chooses. He has some vulnerability to massed cavalry, since they counter both those unit types, but nothing numbers and collateral couldn't handle. But can he reach the next tier of counter units in time, even if he does start out-pacing me in GNP?

I didn't consider this at first because I thought the game would end at Steel, assuming Old Harry couldn't tech as fast as he has, then, realizing he could, that I was bound to lose a game that went this long, and finally that the tech times were just too long, especially since I was impatient for the game to end: I can tech Corporation - Steam Power - Assembly Line for drafted 20-strength infantry. Old Harry would have to tech Banking, Nationalism, Printing Press, Education, Economics, Replaceable Parts, Rifling, and the said Corporation, Steam Power, and Assembly Line for the same. For machine guns, far more likely, he still needs Banking, Printing Press, Replaceable Parts, Steam Power, and Railroad - and they can't be drafted, nor can they attack an invading stack, meaning that even if I couldn't take his cities, I could still plunder him to a blank map with impunity, and then I would win. Artillery is even further out of reach. I think, then, that even if Old Harry techs to the best defensive unit available to him in the fastest time - machine guns - he will still be in a situation he cannot win come when I start drafting infantry. This, of course, unless his tech rate miraculously starts to double mine permanently. I wouldn't put it past him, though really I must be a truly incompetent player then and deserve to lose. I am fairly confident in this plan, especially if I get the right Great Person and my Golden Age fires. Here's my GNP at 100% with no known tech bonus from other players out of Golden Age, compared to Old Harry's at an unknown percentage and with perhaps no tech selected (having just finished Military Science?) in a Golden Age:




Thank you for reading this long post. I would be interested to read in the lurker thread after the game your thoughts at this juncture on whether I am making the right choice or not. We'll see how it plays out; as always, plans may change at the flip of a coin!

tl;dr: I will attack Old Harry if he's slack, but otherwise can't attack into grenadiers with riflemen. I will tech to infantry and smother him with it in ~20 turns instead.

(There was supposed to be a nice picture of infantry from the First World War here, but it didn't load. Sorry about that.)