WW24: The Ashes of Brigdarrow: VILLAGE WINS

[Mattimeo]

Meta 'cause lulz:

Known: Not 1M; even number of C (if any)
Occam's suggests: no SK (and therefore, even number of T, if any)
General assumption is that a Vig doesn't shoot until they have an actual target, even if they have unlimited shots, yes?

Here he pushes the theory that scum are amongst those voting to kill deadweight Tasunke. However, it's in scum's best interests to keep a complete deadweight townie in the game.

It also benefits scum to get on an easy wagon, so they don't have to show much reasoning behind a vote. Not disagreeing, just pointing out that it's not as cut and dried as you're attempting to present it.

Not particularly fond of how fast this wagon has drawn up on Gazglum, either.

Darn a novice day 1 kill is unfortunate.

Its also a risky play by scum given we could potentially have 3 doctors. Does any of you who role scum a bit more often than me have thoughts on which player you have scummed with before would or wouldnt take the risk of going after Novice (the most likely person to be protected imo)

How is it a risky play? There are several 'high priority night 1 kills' playing, I don't see how picking one of them could be considered all that strange. If there is a doctor (and at least a full one seems likely), is there any particular reason they'd target novice N1, as opposed to, say, zak or Serdoa?
Combined with the dithering that followed, it's enough for me to vote Jkaen.

Other mild hints of suspicion:
Azza dealing with the fallout of his misfired joke still niggles at me. I'm not sure that knowing novice wasn't a willing stooge feeding him lines mitigates the fact that no explanation was forthcoming until someone did provide a reasoning for him.
BRick's instant switch really does seem out of character for him. The long silence after doesn't exactly help his case, either, though I can see it as an understandable reaction for either scum or frustrated town.

Case still is you switched alot yesterday for very weak reasons

Which not exactly uncommon behaviour for Rowain on D1, in my recollection. I'm not sure hunting on the basis of "he always does this - this time he must be scum" is a very solid case...

[Jkaen]

His votes were:

Nice story

I only wonder why I - as a visiting runekeeper - am included among the most honourable Townleaders .

And for starters slowcheetah

You think he has read his role PM, but just missed the fact that he's scum? Is that a serious argument?

People missing vital points in their PMs has happened before.

Could also be that he is normal scum but did miss (as others did) that there won't be a miller in this game and decided to run a risky gambit.

Maybe he is a villager and thought it funny to claim Miller and vote himself.

Meanwhile seeing that Azza is already at 4 votes I'll join you and novice on BRickAstley so that there is a strong co-runner.(and also to blame you two should BRick get lynched and turn villager )

Looking at the Tally I think it is a bit too early (just 13h in the game) to have already 2 BW rolling fullsteam ahead. Were it friday it would be happy but so.

I think I propose a little push on Gazglum who is unusual silent.

Neither BRick nor Tasunke do inspire trust. In fact I'm not sure who is more scummish for his silence.
But to make the 2 equal (and perhaps get a reaction one way or the other)

Tasunke

So
#1 = random
#2 = provide another option, follow zak/novice
#3 = provide another option, target a silent one
#4 = Tie the votes and make somebody else take a decision

To me thats not probing for answers, its dancing around with no reason, and making sure he has to take no responsibility for any mislynch

[Jkaen]

Case still is you switched alot yesterday for very weak reasons

Which not exactly uncommon behaviour for Rowain on D1, in my recollection. I'm not sure hunting on the basis of "he always does this - this time he must be scum" is a very solid case...

The diagreement is I dont think it is common behaviour

[Jkaen]

Oh and I maintain that Novice is the top target to get rid off, serdoa can get very focussed on the wrong person too often, and zak is not as untouchable a lynch as he once was.

[Rowain]

The diagreement is I dont think it is common behaviour

You make me wonder. Just to jog your memory. In WW 20 (the last I played and we played together) I started late and voted: Molach->Meiz->Ichabod->BRick (4 switches no starting vote).
In WW 17 I started early and went: pindi->*TT->Bigger->pindi->novice->Mardoc->TT (6 switches) and would have swittched to Bigger (making it 7) if the forum had allowed it. No I didn't go through all the games because that was timeconsuming enough but you are free to do so.


Now we 2 have played several games together (those 2 for example) so I think you should full well know about that. And so I do really wonder why you claim that I changed my vote uncharacteristically often.

*

And the reason I gave for the switch was:

I think I join Ichabod for a while:

Twinkletoes89

[Jkaen]

Hmm, jumps out as odd that you choose 17 and 20 as examples, picking specific games that support your argument there?

[zakalwe]

Darn a novice day 1 kill is unfortunate.

Its also a risky play by scum given we could potentially have 3 doctors. Does any of you who role scum a bit more often than me have thoughts on which player you have scummed with before would or wouldnt take the risk of going after Novice (the most likely person to be protected imo)

Serdoa, I thought this was weird because I think it's out of character for Jkaen to try to meta the night kill, because the risk of protection seems strangely exaggerated, and because he asks others to speculate further rather than doing so himself.

I was unsure whether to call it scummy or just weird, but I thought it was worth a vote.

He could be leaking inside knowledge about the setup - the mafia team will be able to narrow things down a bit based on their own composition - and I guess he could be fishing for something with his open question, though I can't really say what.

It's also strange that he says we probably have no vig, indicating that he's considering the implications of the number of kills, but still doesn't comment about the absence or presence of a SK. If you want to meta the night kills to begin with, that variable should probably factor into it.

[Rowain]

Hmm, jumps out as odd that you choose 17 and 20 as examples, picking specific games that support your argument there?

Given that it is currently a bit tedious to do so I couldn't be bothered to look through all of them. But I'm sure if you look through you will find that I switched usually several times on D1.
(village games for you: 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 11, 12, 14, 16, 17, 19*, 20).

[Jkaen]

Darn a novice day 1 kill is unfortunate.

Its also a risky play by scum given we could potentially have 3 doctors. Does any of you who role scum a bit more often than me have thoughts on which player you have scummed with before would or wouldnt take the risk of going after Novice (the most likely person to be protected imo)

Serdoa, I thought this was weird because I think it's out of character for Jkaen to try to meta the night kill, because the risk of protection seems strangely exaggerated, and because he asks others to speculate further rather than doing so himself.

I was unsure whether to call it scummy or just weird, but I thought it was worth a vote.

He could be leaking inside knowledge about the setup - the mafia team will be able to narrow things down a bit based on their own composition - and I guess he could be fishing for something with his open question, though I can't really say what.

It's also strange that he says we probably have no vig, indicating that he's considering the implications of the number of kills, but still doesn't comment about the absence or presence of a SK. If you want to meta the night kills to begin with, that variable should probably factor into it.

When I said vig I meant sk. Vig I would assume would save the shot. Sorry for the confusion

[zakalwe]

Ok, Jkaen. I thought you concluded that there is no vig since Brick is still alive.

To be honest I don't feel like I have a great case on you here. So I'll join you on Rowain instead, for this post:

Neither BRick nor Tasunke do inspire trust. In fact I'm not sure who is more scummish for his silence.
But to make the 2 equal (and perhaps get a reaction one way or the other)

Tasunke

Like I said at the time, I don't think it should have been so hard to decide who was scummiest of Tasunke and Brick. Also, this was getting close to the deadline, and I'd say it was time to take an actual stance rather than just manipulating the tally for tactical purposes.

Another minor point against him is that Rowain has a tendency to get embroiled in lots of quarrels as town, and get along famously with everybody when he's scum. And I feel like we've only seen his meek side so far.