[Spoilers] Old Harry's Game

[Fintourist]

The odds that the attacker will win each round is given by A/(A+D), so the odds the defender wins a round is D/(A+D).

(A & D represent the strengtht of attacker and defender)

And here's the full article: Combat Explained

(it's actually quite good)

[BaII]

No it wasn't random chance, like Fin said that strength does affect hit probablity, I believe this explains the jumping points in the combat code.

[Old Harry]

The odds that the attacker will win each round is given by A/(A+D), so the odds the defender wins a round is D/(A+D).

(A & D represent the strengtht of attacker and defender)

And here's the full article: Combat Explained

(it's actually quite good)

Ah, that explains it - thanks!

BaII - I think the jump points are because if you get hit for 25 points it only takes four hits to kill you while if you get hit for 24 points it takes five hits to kill you (which is much less likely). Although perhaps this has an effect too...

[SevenSpirits]

All posts brought up important points.

To summarize, I would say that the gradual gains in combat odds are due to increasing probability of winning combat rounds, while the jumps are due to the hit damage changing (which has no effect except when it results in fewer hits being necessary for you, or more for your opponent).

[Old Harry]

All posts brought up important points.

To summarize, I would say that the gradual gains in combat odds are due to increasing probability of winning combat rounds, while the jumps are due to the hit damage changing (which has no effect except when it results in fewer hits being necessary for you, or more for your opponent).

I think I get it now... By the way Seven, did you manage to kill more of Hydra's stack than I did?

Just got the save back - the good news is that he has retreated to the hill to heal up , the bad news is that I won't be able to play for at least eight hours and I want to play NOW!

[SevenSpirits]

I did have some fun looking at the save, thank you. But I guess I shouldn't say anything about it for a little while. Don't want to interfere with your epic game.

[Bigger]

All posts brought up important points.

To summarize, I would say that the gradual gains in combat odds are due to increasing probability of winning combat rounds, while the jumps are due to the hit damage changing (which has no effect except when it results in fewer hits being necessary for you, or more for your opponent).

I think I get it now... By the way Seven, did you manage to kill more of Hydra's stack than I did?

Just got the save back - the good news is that he has retreated to the hill to heal up , the bad news is that I won't be able to play for at least eight hours and I want to play NOW!

oh great, any turn he delays armagedden is good for us, no? more turns to upgrade units, yay!

[Qgqqqqq]

You can always press shift-enter

[Old Harry]

Turn 153

Well this is a turn up. Hydra has retreated to the plains hill, and has a rifle and a cav joining the stack. If he sets them to heal next turn I'll get another chance to hit them before they actually start healing. If he carries on the retreat I have combat fast workers in the area and would be able to hit his stack on the flat land the other side of that hill. In the mean time my super medic can patch up most of my units and more can arrive from other cities. The upshot is that I'll wait to see what he does, and attack next turn.


Up north Lancaster is under threat from ten rifles and two cavs, I've whipped a grenadier and will dry-whip a rifle next turn. If I can get a few more rifles and grenadiers up here in time I will, but Halifax is the real concern, secondary to Barnet, but any units that can't get to the Barnet front for next turn are heading up here.


Now that the immediate danger is over (I hope) I need to work out what to tech next - I could go for Steel or for Nationalism. The latter would take four turns, then allow me to draft three rifles a turn (I have enough cities to cycle the draft endlessly). Steel will take seven turns and allow me to build some cannons. So my tentative plan is Nationalism->Steel. More than ever I wish I'd skipped PP, Replacable Parts and Rifling, gone straight to Steel and upgraded all my cats to cannon, but I'm still alive in spite of that so lets carry on...


The alternative to that tech line is to bulb sci-meth and physics and get some airships out. I've used one of my scientists to part-bulb sci-meth (nothing else for him to do) and it'll take three turns to finish it, then physics would take about five turns (after the other scientist bulb), so I'll hold off doing that for now. I don't think airships are going to be as helpful as cannon, but I'll try and do some simming to see if I'm right.

This is a little worrying - maybe that immediate danger isn't really over... I did kill a few of his units last turn, but nothing like as many as the new ones he produced . I need to polish off his big stack as quick as possible before this lot turn up.


Just to be sure I sacrificed another fast worker to be sure he can't get any more rifles or cavs onto that hill next turn.


By the way Q

And Bigger - although I didn't upgrade many units this turn, I think researching Nationalism is more important right now.

[Bigger]

yes, I agree. mistake or not, you have rifles now, and being able to draft a full cycle every turn will be more as useful as cannons, and you can do so quicker. this is the right call. hold on just a little bit more - looks like once you hold off THH's threat the game is as good as yours.