June 19th, 2013, 08:40
(This post was last modified: June 19th, 2013, 08:47 by scooter.)
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(June 19th, 2013, 04:16)kjn Wrote: So this is not a criticism about how we've conducted the war, it's a question if we fought the right war from the highest strategic level.
It's still a little silly. At the time we made the decision, they were both equally behind, and the German team was holding the turn timer hostage on a consistent basis, to the point where other teams were publicly saying they would like to remove them from the game. Going back and retro-analyzing it with the benefit of hindsight is unfair.
Also, joining the chorus of Granary before Lighthouse. I thought that seemed odd to me given that we're Expansive, glad to see it spelled out. Novice has beaten that lesson into me on more than 1 (or 2 or 3) occasions.
June 19th, 2013, 08:47
(This post was last modified: June 19th, 2013, 08:48 by Ruff_Hi.)
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I'm looking forward to peeking over those hills in the Eastern German lands. Wonder what we will find? I am putting my 2c on a city with a solitary archer (and maybe a worker or two).
I have finally decided to put down some cash and register a website. It is www.ruffhi.com. Now I remain free to move the hosting options without having to change the name of the site.
(October 22nd, 2014, 10:52)Caledorn Wrote: And ruff is officially banned from playing in my games as a reward for ruining my big surprise by posting silly and correct theories in the PB18 tech thread.
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(June 19th, 2013, 08:47)Ruff_Hi Wrote: I'm looking forward to peeking over those hills in the Eastern German lands. Wonder what we will find? I am putting my 2c on a city with a solitary archer (and maybe a worker or two).
What? There is a juicy village just northeast of the mine...
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(June 18th, 2013, 23:23)scooter Wrote: (we already hit the max for # city maintenance right?). No, we're just about getting there, which means new cities are crazy expensive, as we try and get over the hump. ~32 cities will max it for almost all our cities (size 6 and up), 39 maxes it for everything. Even with the trade routes, I expect that our silver city was a net negative in commerce.
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(June 19th, 2013, 08:40)scooter Wrote: It's still silly. At the time we made the decision, they were both equally behind, and the German team was holding the turn timer hostage on a consistent basis, to the point where other teams were publicly saying they would like to remove them from the game. Going back and retro-analyzing it with the benefit of hindsight is unfair.
I personally think things may go better than currently expected. They'll certainly look better! Team RB has a tendency to look for the cloud for every silver lining. That means we're more likely to see every detail that could be improved and fix it, but it isn't good for morale.
Right now, we've suffered casualties, and are frustrated by WPC's manuevers, irritated by CFC, and the prizes aren't producing yet. Mano y Mano is size 1, the other cities are in revolt, and we don't have cultural control over the new land. Looking at our prospects for the rest of the war, we're assuming that the Germans will make no mistakes, will focus on us, and WPC will make every possible mistake. Sure, for planning, we have to assume the worst and prepare for it, but that doesn't mean it'll actually happen that way.
There's another way to look at the situation. We've captured some very nice, green land, already half-improved. So far, we've lost only four maces and one elephant, to take four cities. We've got plenty of workers, Stonehenge, our own religion, and Expansive granaries to help the new cities grow to claim and exploit the new land.
Our military tech lead isn't as high as ideal, but it'll take time for Inca to deploy their new weapons, and there's probably no way they can stop us from taking their capital and cleaning up the west. We still have a significant tech advantage: pikemen, knights, and 3-move roads; I think they're also missing Macemen. And drafting. We can absolutely hold what we take.
It feels like it's taking forever, but that's real life time. In game, this is four cities in four turns. We can't maintain that forever, but it still looks like a minimum of two more in the next three turns. We're pushing on two cities at once, and potentially can add a third front in the west once the units heal.
The only fly in the ointment is comparing our expectations to what we expected five turns ago. The Inca may survive, and we might have to settle for only half their empire instead of 80% of it. We might lose a bunch of catapults and maces to take the capital. WPC will still be an undependable ally; they're not going to catch up to anyone by this move or learn much about tactics. Other teams are doing well too; this war won't win the game by itself.
But really, folks, this is still a very successful war. Most of the costs we've paid are temporary, but the land we've gained is permanent.
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Costs at start of turn 153 for cities and civic upkeep, and now (after Splendid Isolation and Worms):
City Maintenance: 196 -> 211
Civic Upkeep: 98 -> 103
So we've increased our net costs with 20gpt from these two cities (we did however manage to lower our unit cost and unit supply). We also whipped and drafted off 2 pop, so our population was 150 at both times.
The cities that have hit the max cost barrier are only Adventure One and Horse Feathers.
The cities with the greatest need of courthouses that I can see right now are:
Eastern Dealers (in progress) - cost 16 @ size 10 - in progress
The Covenant - cost 12 @ size 6
Simple Life - cost 11 @ size 6
Let It Snow - cost 10 @ size 5
Splendid Isolation - cost 10 @ size 1
Winter Wasteland - cost 9 @ size 1
Mano y Mano - cost 9 @ size 1
Catherine - cost 8 @ size 2
For the curious, Splendid Isolation gets 16C the turn it was founded, 12 of it from trade routes. This is one city where I think we want a harbor later on.
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I made the switch to a granary in Splendid Isolation. This is one case where a lighthouse actually is better than a granary first... except that we're Expansive, which makes granary first better again. Good catch.
I will be out until this evening, so if WPC would move their big stack and end their turn, please feel free to log in and move our own war chariot up there onto their stack and end our own turn as well. Many thanks.
June 19th, 2013, 10:55
(This post was last modified: June 19th, 2013, 10:56 by TheHumanHydra.)
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I just finished reading the whole turn report archive yesterday. It seemed from there we were originally planning on sending multiple waves of drafted troops, including musketmen, at the Germans. If that is the case, hasn't this war gone at least as well as originally anticipated? We look to take half their empire with only one wave of troops. We can always draft another wave to take the rest, as originally planned, or stop, contented with our current cost/gains ratio. Now, my perspective might be a little fuzzy, as I haven't had time to read all the discussion that went along with those reports, but it seems to me this war is proceeding successfully. I don't think it could go much better, in fact. The stated objectives are being achieved at a rapid pace and at minimal cost.
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(June 19th, 2013, 10:55)TheHumanHydra Wrote: I just finished reading the whole turn report archive yesterday. It seemed from there we were originally planning on sending multiple waves of drafted troops, including musketmen, at the Germans. If that is the case, hasn't this war gone at least as well as originally anticipated? We look to take half their empire with only one wave of troops. We can always draft another wave to take the rest, as originally planned, or stop, contented with our current cost/gains ratio. Now, my perspective might be a little fuzzy, as I haven't had time to read all the discussion that went along with those reports, but it seems to me this war is proceeding successfully. I don't think it could go much better, in fact. The stated objectives are being achieved at a rapid pace and at minimal cost.
Nope, you're dead on, we're just a liiiiittle prone to being overly concerned about trivial things . Although that's usually just a symptom of wanting to do really well, so it's not the worst problem to have.
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I think the plan was to do three waves of drafts, of which the third would be muskets. We've so far done two waves of drafts (plus several double-drafts, so we're at 2.5 waves, really).
That said, losing Taj and its GA meant that we're behind in development, so I doubt we can do our third draft wave as muskets.
Also, we didn't expect the Germans to be so quick in getting longbows, and in getting ivory from CivFr. So while we achieved strategic surprise and have accomplished our early war goals, the Germans might still block us from getting Webringen (though at the cost of opening their north to WPC).
Now, the Germans are going down - they have nothing that can stand against the productivity of Starfall, Horse Feathers, Brick by Brick, and Focal Point, backed up with more drafted maces, but the going is likely to be much tougher going forward.
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