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can someone explain math behind wolf voluntary no-kill?
has it been done in rb ww before?
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It has been done I believe but is rare.
No Kill Night 3 (assumes 2 WW, 8 Villagers)
N3 - 8V / 2WW
D4 - 8 / 1
N4 - 7 / 1
D5 (mislynch) - 6 / 1
N5 - 5 / 1
D6 (mislynch) - 4 / 1
N6 - 3 / 1
D7 (mislynch) - 2 / 1
N7 - 1 / 1
D8 (tie vote) - 1 / 1
N7 - 0 / 1
Town can afford 3 mislynches
Kill Night 3 (assumes 2 WW, 8 Villagers)
N3 - 7V / 2WW
D4 - 7 / 1
N4 - 6 / 1
D5 (mislynch) - 5 / 1
N5 - 4 / 1
D6 (mislynch) - 3 / 1
N6 - 2 / 1
D7 (mislynch) - 1 / 1
N7 - 0 / 1
Town can afford 3 mislynches
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I did it quite successfully a couple of games back. And I didn't even know for sure that there was a roleblocker. It's also a way to deny information to town.
If you know what I mean.
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If you assume 3 WW / 7 Villagers you get both options allowing 2 mislynches
I assumed for these calcs we only have 2 factions remaining
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thanks jkaen. can you also do calculations for:
- wolf has double vote and tiebreak
- wolf has double vote, village has tiebreak
- village has double vote, wolf has tiebreak
- village has double vote and tiebreak.
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I doubt either of us would last long enough as village to effect the result, but assuming both Q and I lived to the very end it also depends when the mislynches occur. I assumed for the calculations that the wolves drop down to 1 wolf then mislynches happen, but it doesnt need to happen that way.
The effect of the tie breaker especially depends on the order of the lynches. Basically the maths start getting trickier to follow as you have too many permutations.
If I am alive at the end I am essentially another villager, hence no kill is 4 mislynch, kill is still 3. If I am a wolf I dont think it changes the maths, just makes a mislynch more likely, but you are still allowed the same number.
Generally speaking though if it came down to the very end with 1 wolf and a couple of villagers left then the scum would be crazy to keep me and q alive if village
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The only reason for wolves to no-kill is if they knew exactly how Pind's ability worked and gambled on framing someone with it today. Otherwise there are too many claimed abilities that are threats to them (vig, tracker)
Brick knew, but I think he's not a wolf, but a SK
And the likelihood of pind having been role scanned by wolves is low. I think after day 2, the natural assumption for wolves to make would be that Pind is just a private QT chatter, since that's a pretty common role.
Lynching Gaz also gives us solid information on Zak / Pind depending on flip, and i don't think any claimed seer result can be taken as reliable at this point given the nature of the claimed role
"gazglum Wrote:And if Uber makes it through, you don’t even have to waste a lynch on me, he could vig shot me tomorrow and prove my alignment.
And why wouldn't I shoot you tonight?
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(July 1st, 2013, 07:32)uberfish Wrote: And why wouldn't I shoot you tonight?
You're right, it would make sense to do it tonight if you were able to. I would happily kneel down in front of the executioner's pistol if Brick was lynched and flipped innocent. And if you think he is a serial killer, he's as good a target as me today anyway.
I have to go to bed. I hope to see you on the other side. If not, then I'll see you in the lurker lounge at the end. Goodnight guys.
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I am not sure I buy the SK angle, wouldnt that mean we were missing about 3 more kills from this game?
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Official Vote-count
Gazglum (4) - Lewwyn, uberfish, Mattimeo, Qgqqqqq
BRickAstley (3) - zakalwe, Jkaen, Gazglum
Jkaen (2) - pindicator, Jowy
4 hours 29 minutes to go
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