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There are better uses for a vig shot...
Suffer Game Sicko
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Well yeah, I think Lewwyn is a much better target, zakalwe as well. Im just making it known I think my death would be somewhat fruitful for village knowledge if it happened.
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No pressure uberfish.
Though you probably dont even have it ready.
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There isn't too much that I can add that hasn't been said already tonight. I spent a bit of time re-reading and looking for potential scum hiding. I think there are some interesting cases and I have crossed some names off. I re-read day 4 and got halfway through day 1 again so i wasn't exactly thorough.
But I do not think I will be killed tonight -- not because I think I'll block another shot, but because it'd be really dumb to target me with Mattimeo alive. Obviously Mattimeo is watching me tonight (right, Matt?). So Matt is likely the one to die tonight, but maybe my taunting affected some decision making.
I suggest everyone re-read Brick's post concerning the possible make-up for the rest of the game. There are either 1 wolf, 1 wolf and 1 SK, or 2 wolves. Any SK would have to be latent, as uberfish proposed, otherwise there are a whole host of non-kills unexplained and no real powers left claimed to tell them. I think 1 wolf and 1 latent SK is most likely, because Serdoa has been dropping set-up hints in his write-ups: hinting at a 3rd party existing, hinting at the ghouls being dead, and now hinting that the night will be bloody, which I take it to mean that a SK has activated. I'll get to the SK in a bit, but I'll start with the wolves first:
Likeliest wolves:
Lewwyn
Zakalwe
Jkaen
Qgqqqqq
First off, I disregarded the QT conversation with Gazglum into my thinking. He dropped a lot of names and obviously suspected that I had blocked him before I claimed. It'd be too much of a coincidence not to suspect me of blocking or jailing from his point of view. I'm not going to try to WIFOM if he put scum in his name dropping or not, so I'm just going to disregard it.
Lewwyn is the top choice because of Mattimeo catching him night one. It is far more likely that Lewwyn is a werewolf that was caught in the act of making a kill and concocted a plausible explanation. I should add that I believe his claim. I just believe he targeted one of his scum buddies with it and also night killed Azza on the first night. However, if there is more than one unclaimed kill tonight then I would not vote Lewwyn tomorrow. Also, note that I am indeed using my power on Lewwyn tonight.
After Lewwyn, the people I have up here are more based on the lack of village tells than the certainty of scum ones. Jowy did bring up a good point on zakalwe. Zak has been posting a lot but contributing less than I would expect. Jowy's case against Zakalwe the previous day is exactly what I was thinking.
Qgqqqqq and Jkaen are kind of an oddity. Here we have another doubling up of powers. 3 kinds of vigs and 2 kinds of extra voters. I wonder if that's all intentionally done by Serdoa to get us away from meta. Of the two I suspect Jkaen more. Mostly because it was Jkaen that pushed Brick into a tie with Gazglum yesterday, and yet after Jowy broke that tie later and voted Gazglum, Jkaen was right there to jump off with him. I think that was bussing. I had already posted in the QT that I was going to switch back to Gazglum, so they must have known there was no hope of saving him. Further, Gazglum was arguing a case against Jkaen early on in day 4, based entirely off him being the double voter. And yet when push came to shove later in the day, Gazglum's vote went to Brick instead of Jkaen.
Qgqqqqq i only have on this list because I couldn't remember him standing out for much of anything.
And while I'm tempted to put Jkaen ahead of Zak, Zak's last post of this night trying to cast suspicion on Brick is just awful. Of course Gazglum suspected there was a second effect to my Quicktopic ability. He would have known that novice got blocked and that I visited him, and now he is blocked and I am also visiting him? You'd have to be dumb as a brick to not jump to that conclusion. (Oh, probably not the best analogy...) Plus, if Gazglum already knew he had been blocked then why would he keep pressing me for questions about if my ability has additional effects? Even after I claimed he was pressing me for more information about my role power.
Brick, Uberfish, Mattimeo, and Jowy are definitely not wolves. Possibly SK, but definitely not wolves.
* Mattimeo for obvious reasons.
* Jowy because he broke the tie on Gazglum and because Gazglum piggy-backed onto Brick's case against Jowy on day 1. Also, Jowy's tone has been more confident as the game has gone on. B
* Brick is not scum. He's the village patsy. Okay, there's a chance he's the SK. But I'll get to the SK in a bit.
* Uberfish kept us focused on the Gazglum wagon when things were wavering. He also was someone who was pushing Gazglum in the days prior to yesterday, and I've agreed a lot with his thinking. I think Uberfish is playing his usual close-to-the-vest villager game. When I re-read his day 1 he looked village and I think recent events show that he likely still is.
SK possibilities
I really think it's still premature to go about assuming that we have a latent SK that is going to pop up at a certain point. Let's look at what happens overnight and then we can assess the layout. For now, focus on hunting scum as normal. An SK pretty much has to align with scum now, even subtly, because we are winning as a village. If we keep winning and eliminate the two main scum teams then we will be focusing entirely on the SK next and they will want to delay that.
Some things to examine tomorrow:
* Who did our vig kill and why? Uberfish has hinted that he's powered himself up already, and Serdoa's story is hinting that the night will be bloody -- not the first time Serdoa's story has given us information in this game. If the vig kill is someone like Jkaen or Lewwyn or Zakalwe then I think that vig is likely town. If someone like Brick or Uberfish or Jowy is killed then I would look at our vigs with scrutiny concerning SK status.
* How many night kills? Did Uberfish claim a vig kill? If there are more than 2 unclaimed kills tonight and Uberfish claims an additional kill as his vig shot then that is a big town cred point for uberfish. Brick's shots still haven't activated yet if he's been honest about his role, and I don't see any reason why he isn't being honest now.
* Who is trying to bend the facts to fit their story rather than adapting the story to fit the facts? Cough, Zakalwe, cough.
Good luck! But again, i seriously doubt I'm dead tonight. The SK and the last wolf (if not lewwyn) would have to be in a prisoner's dilemma of sorts. They know they need to kill me and they know they need to kill Mattimeo. But who targets whom? If they get it wrong and both target me then Mattimeo could win the game for us.
Blah, I've rambled on long enough, and as I said, I really expect to be alive tomorrow. Pity too, I've just about used up my usefulness I think
Zak as SK?
Suffer Game Sicko
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"Poor soul."
"In the most literal meaning."
Laughter.
"We could get him to his body."
"Or we could get him to another plane of existence."
"That sounds more like fun, lets do that."
pindicator, loyal member of the village, died
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How do you kill a ghost?
Go get em village!
Suffer Game Sicko
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Bye pindicator! Thanks for your words of usefulness and catching of wolves and ghouls alike!
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(July 2nd, 2013, 13:01)Jowy Wrote: lol we win
Explanation please?
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was going to post this just before deadline but... I was afk:
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Since I might end up dead as gazglum foreshadowed:
WOLF
zak - Defends gazglum early by trying to dismiss my case on him as "weak". Never goes into any more detail than that or argue with the premises of the case even though some other players are agreeing gazglum is scummy. On day 3 when momentum is building against gazglum, suddenly switches to saying he'd lynch gazglum as a second choice without ever mentioning what changed his mind. Asks gazglum a soft question after that. Looks like distancing. Way too eager to hop off the gazglum wagon day 4 after the seer claim too.
Despite high post count, doesn't do anything day 1 and half of day 2 apart from asking questions, and agreeing/disagreeing with people for no reason.
Like novice, focuses on the idea that brick must be policy lynched for lying about his PR, without really bothering to evaluate alignment. Goes for easy lynches. Suspects me, doesn't suspect MJW, switches from myself to MJW on the last minute end of day 1 wagon anyway.
Jowy's not a scum read so why is he wasting so much time responding to a "troll"? I think the aim is just to discredit Jowy for having an "annoying" playstyle.
SURVIVOR / SERIAL KILLER / WHATEVER 4TH PARTY
brick - because town getting 3 vigilante kills that only activate at endgame is not credible. And because he lied about his post restriction in order to encourage people to lower the sanity for him.
NOTES
If brick turns out to be town, then lewwyn is probably scum.
wolves probably have a role seer since Gazglum appeared to know I couldn't kill until day 5.
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