(July 23rd, 2013, 13:03)Lady Elizabeth Wrote: Well, John has not defened himself so I feel the most move is to kill him using my ability. I have to move in the first 24-hours. And I feel that I have a good chance of getting killed. I also feel that there's a good chance of me getting night-killed now. I would post longer but I don't have time. I'm just checking in right before deadline.
I wouldn't waste a vig kill on him.. I think there is a high chance that he will be lynched today if he doesn't get himself mod-killed.
You should just target whoever you think has the highest odds of being a wolf.
Vigkilling someone who is very likely to be lynched is ok regardless of alignment, since it frees up a new lynch for the village. I'm not sure Scarlet John is that likely to be lynched though.
Now that you've claimed, I would indeed think you're a likely night kill, so using your ability today might be best regardless. I'm not sure who to recommend as your target though.
Generally yes, but we had the mod-kill issue as an added factor. Check the scenarios:
1) John is a wolf, will not get himself mod-killed, must use one lynch on John = 2 lynches total
2) John is a villager, gets himself mod-killed, can use normal lynch and vig kill on others = 3 lynches total
Anyway the dice have been cast, let's see what happens.
(July 23rd, 2013, 13:46)Bert The Bard Wrote: Maybe you should vig Sister Mary (or maybe we should lynch her). If she's scum that will provide a lot of info, practically clearing Muriel, which in turn provides further info.
This was rushed out without reading Fat Rose's case on Sister Mary.* I like the case. I disagree on post 6 though:
Quote:I find that post insofar interesting in that Sister Mary claims that last names must be a null tell (fine with that) but at the same time she asks Muriel to explain which connection she suspects between existence/absence of last names and roles. Um, that's again one of those posts that make no sense for me. If you disregard last names as null tell, why make it a topic yet again?
I read that as "my analysis tells me last names must be null tells, how can you claim otherwise, Muriel?"
* I'm aware that the case builds on existing cases.
Didn't realize that, but yes, that could be read that way as well, you are right. Maybe Sister Mary will explain the other points I pointed out? I'll add some "incentive"
Sister Mary
And for the other vote, supposing we vote for whom we want to lose the duel
Oh god another Duel. Lets hope it yields better result than the last one.
(July 23rd, 2013, 13:48)Bert The Bard Wrote: Oh and I guess I should add, don't vig Young Will, he's town.
Care to elaborate? That's hard to believe for me.
(July 23rd, 2013, 15:11)Know-Nothing Jon Wrote: 16 players alive, and only 8 of them are voting?
I wouldn't mind their holding back their votes that much if they would play the game and post. We are halfway through Day 2 and have people sitting on 10 or less posts.
Since (as far as I can gather ) he wants out: Scarlet John
(July 22nd, 2013, 17:43)Scarlet John Wrote: Policy lynch me for inactivity if you want, it's best done now rather than later. I just haven't had much time or energy for this game, for which I apologize. I'm totally confused by all the flips, and not looking forward to having to reread the entire thread tomorrow
This seems either a good excuse as scum to justify low participation, or just really screwing people over. If you are a villager it would be better to at least try to keep a handle on it as much as you can, even if it can seem overwhelming.
@ Rob the Filch
(July 22nd, 2013, 19:51)Rob The Filch Wrote:
(July 21st, 2013, 15:59)Short Richard Wrote: Made it just in time. Friar Andrew, rather lynch lower-content.
Short Richard, you have been flitting about all day of Day 1. And you ended on Andrew why? There was no prior on the friar. Rather lynch lower content? The reasoning is weak and the last minute voting is suspect. Your vote didn't matter and yet you jumped onto the already confirmed leading wagon?
I agree that Short Richard's voting patterns seem erratic, but what sense does it make to hop onto a villager's wagon at the last second like that as a wolf? At the point he made the vote, there was no real chance of it swinging the other way, so he couldn't be trying to make an insurance vote if Muriel was scum. I'd read this as more of a villager wanting their vote to matter.
@ Know-Nothing Jon
(July 23rd, 2013, 03:04)Know-Nothing Jon Wrote: Kate, in my book, that wasn't really a last minute run, it was just a consolidation of votes from everybody who didn't want to vote for Muriel but wanted to make their vote count. Perhaps your perception is colored by the fact that you weren't around at the time.
I will wait for more opinions on Saul before taking that any further.
Young Will until he answers why he was watching Rob and me.
I also agree that Scarlet John's call for a policy lynch is sudden and seems off. It reads a bit like an attempt to redefine the case against him. (Though to be fair, the accusations did revolve mostly around activity.)
I'm glad you brought this up again. At the time the "watching two people I haven't mentioned before for no given reason" post struck me as bad, and I had wanted to revisit it today. He hasn't really done anything since to lessen the unease either. (To the point I've read up to anyways)
@Scarlet John
(July 23rd, 2013, 03:39)Scarlet John Wrote: Okay, I'll do what I can, and contrive to get myself mod killed on day 3 or 4 by not voting if the time situation doesn't improve.
Muriel seemed to be trying too hard to be "useful" at the start of day 1. Although her later posting was better there's too much revenge voting and I still find her suspicious. Not sure we can get much in the way of clues from the day 1 voting though. People agreeing with me that Andrew's posts were bad was a common and easy line to take. And obviously, I don't fault anyone for this.
Actually, looking at the late votes the one that stands out to me is Will's 306-307, the two posts together give the impression that he's not really invested in the outcome of the lynch, will try to review his overall posting later
Night kills are confusing because active players weren't killed. After thinking about it overnight Anne/Sarah deaths look like the actions of a vigilante or neutral 3rd party. As I don't really see why wolves would kill someone (Anne) who hadn't done much up until the nightpost. The "werewolf" flip on Sarah doesn't suggest that there would be 2 wolf factions. We lynched the paranoid player so it's not too likely that there was another random death source floating around. For now I'm assuming Tom was the wolf kill, and so maybe he was on to someone - I can't remember his suspects apart from Andrew, will review later for clues too. Oh hmm, she's strongly anti-Muriel during night posting as well, there's too many links in this chain for it to be strong evidence, but another reason to be wary of Muriel at this point.
Liz posting feels village regardless of the meta argument, which I still don't accept as valid in any way.
I'm not bothered about the vote on me but Saul's "I don't think Sarah would throw dirt on a teammate" is a bad point, especially since the dirt in question was a throwaway comment about buddies. Regarding saul, that flip from muriel to mary back to muriel (and now off Muriel again for previously mentioned bad reasoning) is sudden and feels odd. Asks the question whether he intended to lynch Mary and then turn around and blame it on Muriel later. Definitely an interaction that should be reviewed after one of them flips.
Bolding is mine for emphasis. I don't understand this. How do you figure that there aren't two scum factions because of Sarah flipping scum? This just seems an odd thing to say, unless I'm being thick.
@ Young Will
(July 23rd, 2013, 12:47)Young Will Wrote:
(July 22nd, 2013, 16:06)Widow Edith Wrote: Oh my god 3 dead in 1 night including the jailer
But 1 wolf down is very good news
And ha I'm sure all those men that took advantage of her easiness thought that were only love bites
well I am glad she rejected my advances. I thought she must have been stuck-up, but this makes much more sense.
(July 23rd, 2013, 03:04)Know-Nothing Jon Wrote: Kate, in my book, that wasn't really a last minute run, it was just a consolidation of votes from everybody who didn't want to vote for Muriel but wanted to make their vote count. Perhaps your perception is colored by the fact that you weren't around at the time.
I will wait for more opinions on Saul before taking that any further.
Young Will until he answers why he was watching Rob and me.
I also agree that Scarlet John's call for a policy lynch is sudden and seems off. It reads a bit like an attempt to redefine the case against him. (Though to be fair, the accusations did revolve mostly around activity.)
It was only a gut feeling, which is why I didn't explain it. I still don't completely trust you, tbh, although Rob has dropped off my radar. I don't know why, but I didn't find anything damning or worth voting for you in your posts.
to be honest, im somewhat in the same boat as Scarlett John. im having trouble getting tells, I'm afraid the anonymity has actually made it more difficult for me, which I did not expect. I'm also suffering from time constraints, but I will not ask for a modkill, tyvm. I'll contribute as I can. I'll try to reread (i just skimmed so far this day) and vote later.
Why has Rob dropped off of your radar? I don't believe you ever mentioned why he was ON your radar to begin with. You said you were watching him and Jon intently, and still haven't answered why. Maybe because you just decided on them as someone to suspect, since you needed to suspect someone?
After reading through, I really like the case on Sister Mary. I had misread her statement about the aura of innocence Muriel had. The way it is actually written makes her stance seem quite scummy, in that she was basing her suspicion off of Rob's read when that wasn't what he had meant. (Someone had pointed this out, I believe it was Jon.) . Her voting for Muriel while at the same time saying she doesn't think she is guilty also seems scummy. Young Will also I really don't like so far. Bert, you ask Elizabeth not to vig him because he's town. Are you just reading him as town, or do you actually know it somehow, because as it stands I'd be perfectly happy to lynch him. While I don't agree with those stating, sometimes vehemently, that we HAVE to lynch Scarlet John (even after Muriels explanation I don't see how this is a policy lynch) I was suspicious of him and would have considered lynching him. Head to head with Elizabeth who I already had a village lean on, even more-so after the claim I am perfectly happy to have him lose the duel. Scarlet John. I realize I've been pretty scarce this game day, I've been fairly busy, but I will be around for a good bit now if there's anything anyone wants me to address. Also, this is likely a large crosspost.
Really I agree with Rob practically completely on the John post (at least, before he started getting emotional about it), and think Muriel emerges from it very scummily. In particular this fragment was eyeopening
Quote:Honestly this is going to sound really cocky and I realize that, but the only thing that makes sense to me is that I got them. I'm on the right track, and that's why they're acting so ridiculous, just hoping that keeping the act up will give them enough "a wolf would never be so obvious" points to make it work. Rob is a wolf. Mary is a wolf. John is a wolf. Percival.. I don't know. I still get the noob vibe from him, and the newest post shows some personal growth.
And in general I think her comments on the whole process have been over the top and aggressive without really contributing. But enough inks been spilt on this subject.
I don't think that was a very smart use of LE power tbh, but I think she's more innocent then Scarlet John.
