The T170+ Attack on RB thread

[pindicator]

That last chat with Apolyton makes it look like there won't be an attack on t170. We should still be ready, but if they aren't lying in that chat then I think they wouldn't attack unless they had all our neighbors on board.

[Ruff_Hi]

I thought for sure I read that running in a city of our state religion was a modifier, and if you had the holy city for that religion, it was a bigger modifier. Maybe I'll look it up again later, it was quite a while ago.

Zargon's probably right, plako was talking about holy cities in PB8.

I don't think so. I have been known to run a few EP economies in my time. Here is a pic from a sandbox test ...



I am Conf. One on the left is their city without my religion. Middle one is their city with my religion. Right one is their city with my religion and me with the holy city.

Edit: Silly me - I always seem to mix up the Holy City and the Shrine. The one on the right is with the Shrine. If you are running a state religion, you don't have the holy city and you are targeting a city that has your religion, I think you get -15%. If you have the Holy City, you get an extra -25% to bring it to -40%.

This one is big enough and wrong enough that I'll step in right here (and the mechanics are described in detail in my Epic 26 report anyway.)

-15% cost: If your state religion is present in the target city and is NOT your target civ's state religion (so must be different.)
-25% cost: If your state religion is present in the target city and you control that religion's holy city. (can be same religion, but stacks additively with the -15% if you are different religions.)

[Ubercannon]

That last chat with Apolyton makes it look like there won't be an attack on t170. We should still be ready, but if they aren't lying in that chat then I think they wouldn't attack unless they had all our neighbors on board.

Well, evn if the attack doesn't come until turn 175, I don't see how wed have time to build a significant number of rifles by then.

[antisocialmunky]

Maybe CFC is leading us on and it's going to be DogPile PB2.0.

[kalin]

Can anybody find odds on injured rifles from a C1/Pinch knight, and a C1 musket with and without pinch?

Kalin

[Ubercannon]

Ed: beaten.

[Zargon]

Flatland odds.

Rifle HP	Musket	C1 Musket	C1 pinch Musket	C1 Knight	C1 pinch Knight
100	9%	12%	30%	5%	24%
95	17%	21%	45%	16%	27%
90	20%	24%	49%	19%	42%
85	22%	39%	52%	21%	45%
80	37%	42%	56%	36%	49%
75	41%	46%	82%	39%	53%
70	49%	64%	85%	43%	70%

Our only potential source of 2 promo muskets is HF, and I'd rather have 2 promo knights any day of the week.

Edit: looks like our numbers are different. I'm using the BTS Combat Calculator spreadsheet.

Edit Edit: Fixing the knight values to account for rifleman's 25% bonus against them.

[Ubercannon]

Weird . I was also using that. Was using the spreadsheet tab though, not the macro code since I can't get the macros to run.

[kalin]

Wow, thanks to both Ubercannon and Zargon.

Looking at Zargon's table, I notice something very encouraging. Fully hurt rifles have almost 50-50 chance against unpromoted muskets. Also even C1 knights get good odds on injured rifles. The table also underscores the importance of having the rifles at max damage before attaching with any but pinch knights (not considering pinch muskets here, we are not likely to get many).

The only thing about 2 promo muskets that I thought about is that both BbB and the Gauntlet have hills adjacent to them. Having 2-3 Guerilla 2 muskets to occupy those hills may be worthwhile if we can force a stack on flat ground.

Kalin

[Zargon]

I was using it in macro mode, which returns different values...

I found the thread where I got it, and it also has Cyneheard's spreadsheet, which Krill vouches for, and returns the same values I got on the macro tab.

Sareln says there's a bug in his calculator, and that he fixed it, but I'm not sure which version is right anymore.

http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...212&page=3

Edit: G2 muskets get 69% odds defending against unpromoted rifles in hills, and 74% odds against C1 pinch knights, so maybe? We'd lose a few heavy hitters, but it all might be worth it if we can force the stack onto flatlands.

Edit again: On second though, the Gauntlet is a sacrificial city anyways. I'm pretty sure consensus is we can't possibly defend it and we'd be worse off for trying if poly brings a real stack. Dunno if it's worth it for BbB. Probably depends on what CP are bringing and where they're bringing it.