RB PBEM #1 - Mehmed (SPOILERS!)

[Dreylin]

I'll see what I can do tomorrow ... may depend how busy you keep me with the other game!

[Dreylin]

Ah, athlete doesn't seem to be happy:

Hey Andy,

Just played 680 AD. Noticed you spy bombed me. I'm not particularily happy about that, and that's putting it mildly. I get that it's probably for stealing tech and the other benefits are just perks. I didn't lie to you though about not wanting to trade with you. You just didn't have anything I was interested in that I wouldn't get from somebody else...Anyways, as I'm sure you can understand I'm quite upset (in game) about this and don't want to respond to harshly so I'll leave it at that until I have some time to think the consequenses of this through.

Taylor

Time to cook up something to try and cool him down:

Taylor,

I want to apologise for not at least informing you before I went ahead with the bomb.

As you say, the aquisition of tech was my main aim, however you have to understand my position: first mh blankly refuses to consider trading anything with me - increasingly generous deals I might add - and then suddenly sooooo is gifting you any tech that I might be able to offer in trade.

I did and do believe that you wish to trade, however since the polarisation in the world dynamic you appear to be on the other side of the fence from myself. In that light, I've come to feel that it is decreasingly likely that I will ever have anything in which you are interested.

I would understand if you feel that this has violated our NAP agreement, and would be prepared to initiate our cool-down period or immediately cancel if you so desire. I hope you don't, and that we can work through this rocky patch in our relationship.

I won't say anymore, and will wait for you consider how you see the way forward.

Regards,

Andy.

[Dreylin]

t97 - Machinery comes in, and Gunpowder has come in from Ruff.

Jannissaries started in: Istanbul, Bursa, Samsun & Gaziantep. :D

Hmmmm, 808 EPs with a 78% chance of success
...
...
...
argh, failure!

OK, that's why we have a back-up. Still a 78% chance of success, but 901 EPs ... that's nearly half of the GSpy!
...
...
...
Success!

But tinged with failure as the second Spy is also caught in the act.

OK, key up Chemistry and dial up the Science slider - due in 6t at -64gpt. With 444g in the bank, that's plenty.

Joseph Conrad starts an epic tale and kicks off a Golden Age. Chemistry down to 5t.

Workers on the Stone finish their jobs and Konya starts Moai Statues - due in 4t.

Hmmm, Notre Dame also speeds up with Stone ... just 5t in Istanbul during GA, so make the switch.

Let's have a look around the cities for anything else to do:
Edirne's Great Scientist now due in 5t (and University)
Sarmatian whips Granary

Chatting with Ruff (will post chatlog later), remember to switch to Confucianism. Oh, missionary spreads into Sarmatian.

Review Civics - Hmmm, may want to go to Theocracy for a while, but need OrgRel for Notre Dame.

I'd also better send a note to athlete:

Hi,

Further to our conversation, I thought I should let you know that you will notice 2caught Ottoman Spys when you log in for this turn. I was attempting to steal Engineering - a tech which you could not trade to me. I actually succeeded on the second attempt, but it cost me almost half of the GSpy's EPs. Until I hear back from you, I will not attempt to steal any techs which you could trade.

Regards,

Andy.

[Dreylin]

I guess I forgot to post the Ruff chatlog last night:

Ruff.Hi: you there?

me: Yep
Did sooooo play?

Ruff.Hi: I have the save

me: OK

Ruff.Hi: sooooo has started a knight in his troop city

me: Tht's be expected, I guess

Ruff.Hi: I am stealing guilds this turn to match him
he just hooked up his iron

me: That's early, isn't it?

Ruff.Hi: a little

me: thought you were waiting for t100

Ruff.Hi: but I will argue that it isn't hurting him so isn't violating the NAP

me: That's what I plan with athlete re: Eng
any reseach schenanegans?

Ruff.Hi: soooo looks like he turned his tech up (forgot to check)
Nationalism in 3
must be making a run at the Taj

me: Shame, would have liked the extra-long GA
Probably thinks that's our plan.
I'm going to play later

Ruff.Hi: he cannot sustain his tech rate
can only tech at 100% for 1 more turn

Ruff.Hi: hey - can I borrow some gold off you for about 3 or 4 turns? I want to get Eng as quickly as possible - can repay you after I have finished that tech and well before you run out

me: How much do you need?

Ruff.Hi: not sure

me: Can probaly spare 50g with no problem
more would ned o be paid back in >5t

Ruff.Hi: I have 80g and run at -60g per turn
Eng will take 3 turns at the moment

me: Stole Eng on 2nd attempt
lost both spies

Ruff.Hi: so if you can spot me 120g, I can get it back 60g to you 4 and 5 turns from now

me: & 901EPs

Ruff.Hi: what was your %age?

me: 78%

Ruff.Hi: mine
too

me: costly

Ruff.Hi: I had it as high as 97% but I think they are runnign anti-spy missions against me

me: Chem due in 5t with GA

Ruff.Hi: guilds cost me 318 EPs

me: Yeah,second one had no stationary discount

Ruff.Hi: sooooo has a Great Eng in 1 turn
guess he will rush Taj

me: If he does that,we get Steel

Ruff.Hi: no way we can beat him - think a GA from you is a good bet - balance out his GA
it'll take him about 3 or 4 turns to finish Nationalism

me: exactly
if he goes for Nat, we have time for Steel

Ruff.Hi: well - he is deep into it at the moment
over 60%

me: Plus my GA is 1.5times as long

Ruff.Hi: so - can I get 120g for 3 or 4 turns?
land Eng and then pay you back 60g for 2 turns
oh - you picked up that wonder did you

me: I have 444g

Ruff.Hi: good for you
how much does 100% cost you?

me: ~65gpt
6t

Ruff.Hi: sounds like you can spare 120g for 4 turns then

me: 5t - Chem +1t Lib
= 55g absolutely spare
remaing 65g would need to be returned in <4-5t
(or we risk Lib)
Oh, and in GA - Notre Dame is 5t in Istanbul

Ruff.Hi: I can get 60g back to you 4 turns from now
3 turns for Eng, then $ back to you

me: Perfect
I'll offer 120g right now

Ruff.Hi: actually - you might have to request it then

me: We'll play it by ear when we get closer

Ruff.Hi: Notre Dame gives what ... +1 h\appy?

me: +2

Ruff.Hi: oh - request Drama too - I have that now

me: There'll probably be overflow beakers into Lib

Ruff.Hi: do you have a Drafting city in mind?

me: I just saw that
nope

Ruff.Hi: DV for me

me: Ah, frontlines are good

Ruff.Hi: all farms, corn, 2 floodplains and 2 spices (4 food)

me: BTW did you decide what to do south of DV?

Ruff.Hi: wonder how many theatres I need

me: Small map
probably 5

Ruff.Hi: 5
just checkd F6
need to get a push on my unis too

me: forOxford

Ruff.Hi: going to swap back to Org Religion for some biuldings
(yes)
love being spiritual

me: Oh that remindsme
(switching to Conf)

Ruff.Hi: err - are you spiritual?
do it during your GA

me: ...

Ruff.Hi: or have you already kicked that off

me: ...
yes

Ruff.Hi: oh - could have been a balls up there
I mis-timed a forest chop (want it into a ORg Rel driven forge) so I've parked that city on tech or coin for a few turns

me: I just did exactly the same with Moai
had to rush 3Workers to connect Stone
& research for 1t

Ruff.Hi: I saw you had 3 guys going at it
you could have had it from me for nothing
I am not using it at the moment

me: Whipped lots of overflow into Maoi
Is OK, now connected
Switched city to research
(actually allowed me to complete Machinery at 0% sci)

Ruff.Hi: ha very funny

me: All worked out in the end

[Dreylin]

Received this note overnight from athlete:

Hey Andy,

While still not a nice thing to do I suppose a) stealing a tech I can't trade you anyway and b) letting me know before I'm kind of blind sided (as I would be expecting something now...) is better (for me) than the other options available to you. I've played my turn and passed it on to MH, but at this point I'm really undecided about how I want to proceed. While MH, Soooo and I have been tight, my NAP is close to ending with MH and no negotiations are taking place to renew. From my perspective it doesn't look like he's really interested in renewing. With his spiking power I have to start preparing for something...

Having you spy bomb me has me further worried as not only does it allow tech benefits but so many other things as well. My inability to see your graphs and you have almost clairvoyance into my entire civ now seems woefully unfair :-(. Not that I knew espionage played a role in seeing graphs until half way through this game but that's another point altogether. You seem more than willing to have the NAP cancelled and by all rights I believe they should be however I have not been able to decide if that puts me in a better position as a civ or not.

So where does that leave us? At this point I'm really on the fence with a lot of things (not just our relationship). My first instict when seeing the spybomb was to curse and swear and attack but alas I can not magically hit the end turn button several times over and having the time to think there might be a better way to handle this...I just have yet to find it. I do know in the near (not immediate, but near) future I'll be interested in Music. I see you got gunpowder through Ruff (probably a few turns ago, I don't pay that close atttention to it) and have a Janissery in Bursa. Gunpowder might be fun to have as well. Anyways I'm rambling without saying much.

What thoughts do you have with where you want to proceed both with our civ's relationship and the game itself? Earlier you had mentioned wanting to play a mostly peaceful game but if MH does choose to go against me (I'm assuming you'd be his only other option as a target and last I saw you were still significantly ahead on power) would you care to participate (even if it's just by proxy). I'm not unreasonable to continuing a relationship but just to reiterate at this point I am still uncertain as to where I stand.

Hope you enjoyed the rambling,

Taylor

I'm not entirely sure whether this is genuine, or a carefully - and very well - crafted deception to get me to reveal my intentions. Either way, it requires an equally well-crafted reply to be send before he receives the save:

Taylor,

I will start by saying that I have always considered you and your civ a friend, if not directly an ally. It was in the interests of friendship that I made the offer to void our NAP - not with any desire to see you take up that offer, but I felt it was the decent thing to do since I had underestimated your reaction to the GSpy bomb.

You have been forthright with me, so I will be so in return: the reason I targetted you with the GSpy rather than mh is because I think that you will be in the game longer than he will...

I too have noted mh's spiking Power, and though some of that has been defensive Longbows, he now has access to his Pikeman/Maceman crossbreed UU. It was the threat of that UU which particularly concerned me when I was (effectively) locked out of the bottom-tree military techs which would have provided a counter, and has driven my research up towards Gunpowder and my UU.

You may also know that sooooo initiated the cool-off period of his NAP agreement with Ruff and that it is about to expire; I don't know if that is a prelude to War, but I do know that a military build-up is underway across the board. You will see the bulk of my military power building up in Bursa, since it is my forward city on two fronts. I intend to maintain a fairly modest defensive presence only in Samsun & Diyarbakir, as seems prudent.

Regarding Tech; should you decide to continue our NAP, I will agree to not steal any tech from you which you have researched yourself and could therefore make a profit from trading to me. I am also prepared to make an immediate offer of Music plus a sum of gold in exchange for Feudalism. If you're interested, let me know what you consider a fair sum and I will work out when it might be available.

I hope we can work through this incident between us, but certainly understand if the geopolitical realities make this impossible.

Regards,

Andy.

Most of this is stuff that I expect he knows, while the rest is intended to reassure him that I do not have hostile intentions towards him, and while I have hnted that I am/could be pursuaded to target mh, I have avoided actually coming out and saying that.

[Dreylin]

And an additional chat this morning, framed around the note I received from athlete:

me: Got a sec?

Ruff.Hi: yep

me: Had an interesting e-mail frm athlete this morning...

Ruff.Hi: oh yes

me: It sounds like he's not that "in" on the sooooo / mh relationship
says that his NAP with mh is expiring soon
and that no renewal seems imminent
"if MH does choose to go against me (I'm assuming you'd be his only other option as a target and last I saw you were still significantly ahead on power) would you care to participate"

Ruff.Hi: who were you targetting?

me: mh
If we got athlete on our side
we could spend more resources against sooooo

Ruff.Hi: no mention or your an athletes NAP?

me: Yes earlier
I offered to cancel
and it seems that he's taken that as a desire from me to cancel

Ruff.Hi: was a bit of a funny offer

me: Well, I wanted to make it clear to him that I understood he might consder that I had violated the agreement and was prepared to take the consequences

Ruff.Hi: to be honest - I don't trust athlete

me: I'm not sure

Ruff.Hi: he talks one way (undecided) but acts another

me: I suspect that this is his first mult-human game
and that he doesn't have a whole lot of time for the diplo either

Ruff.Hi: well - maybe keep talking to him is a good idea
just make sure you watch his power (and troops)
and build troops of your own

me: I'm certainly going to impress upon him that I do not want to cancel the NAP
Oh, troops are a Churning
first Jannissary is built!

Ruff.Hi: I think I made a mistake stealing Guilds - I should have stolen Eng (would love to be able to build pikes now that sooooo has knights)

me: You still planning to research Eng?

Ruff.Hi: 1 turn in
due in 2 more

me: Let m know if you need military support

Ruff.Hi: sooooo moved up a phalanx into my territory
pretty sure it is there to check out DVs defenses

me: I'm going to make noises to athlete about possibly going vs. mh and see how he reacts
not like it's much of a secret anyway...

Ruff.Hi: just make sure that you aren't the '1' in a 2v1 contest

me: Well if athlete doesn't want to cancel the NAP, then I'll feel OK about that
but the border will be guarded
besides; I can see all his builds!

Ruff.Hi: Bursa is pretty exposed

me: HE city

Ruff.Hi: walls?

me: w/Moai soon in Konya
Can't remember
good idea now I have stone oed
hooked

Ruff.Hi: doesn't look like it
looks like defenses are at 0%

me: Besides, Jannissaries hve good odds on anythig they can bring - even knights
border has popped
so must be 20%

Ruff.Hi: my info must be out of date

me: did you accept map trade?

Ruff.Hi: yep
err - no
was there a map trade - maybe last round

me: yeah, last turn
not this
well I/know/ the borders popped
(I ran Culture to do it)

[Dreylin]

t98 - and now the turn:

Settler in Ankara - University (3t)
Jannissary in Bursa - Walls (per Ruff' suggestion, and only 1t)
Granary in Sarmatian - Forge (lots)

Actually, I'm reconsidering the Walls in Bursa; I could really do wih some more culture here to push back a mh & athlete. Queue up a 2t Confucian Monastery, since that brings an additional 2h to the city as well.

Hmmmm, realise that sooooo could well apply his GE to complete Notre Dame - well at least I'll get a nice chunk of gold!

Purusing the Militay advisor, I notice that I have visibility into sooooo's border city of Corinth ... ah, it's Confucian which reduces the cost!

[Dreylin]

t99 -

Only one completed build this turn, in Samsun: Janissary - Jannissary

Doing a circuit of cities and notice that Evil mh has pillage the farm allowing irrigation at Bursa. Botheration! Switch to using the forest, and am grateful that I decided on additional culture here - especially once I realise that mh has put his HE in the border city as well.

Right, just been chatting with Ruff, an he needs some more financing to get to Eng in 1t. ~15g is all, but I don't think I can spare it since I'm on 201g w/-66gpt and the expenses are only going up. However, I bit of checking reveals that I can still make Chem in 3t if I drop to 90%, so there is some leeway. I offer 30g to Ruff on the understanding he returns every penny he doesn't need straight away and stay at 100% for this turn.

Hit End, and expenses jump to 69gpt an next turn I'll be founding another city! Hmmm, maybe close here.

[Dreylin]

t100 - gosh really 100turns. Momentous!

Ruff hands back 15g plus his World Map.

Bursa Conf Monastery - Jannissary
Gaziantep Jann - Jann

Notice that Istanbul can complete Notre Dame this turn with a little MM, so I do so! Edirne & Ankara will complete Unis this turn. Konya also due to complete Moai.

OK, time to found "Blue Dot" ... Izmir starts a Granary. Expenses rise to -78gpt, so drop research to 80% @ -33gpt (Chem still du in 2t). That leaves me 87g, so I can run 100% next turn when the two Unis come online.

[Dreylin]

An overnight message from athlete:

Hi Andy,

OK. In terms of our NAP I'd like to still see it in place but with some slight modification. I believe right now it's in effect until T118 with autorenewal and a 10 turn cooldown? I'd like to remove the cool down. If you disagree to this change I'll consider the NAP null and void.

Now that being said, even if the NAP becomes null and void, and with the possibility of war in the near future, I'd like to open discussions about any participations. You deftly sidestepped (or blatantly ignored) my question as to whether you would be willing to cooperate in a war against MH. Judging by your last (or previous to last) e-mail you expected to war with MH so if that's the case I'm open to the possibility of cooperation. No details yet but I'm just throwing out an idea. Just as in the pitboss game, something will need to change in this game and maybe this is the answer?

Let me know and again I'll be fairly busy over the next week so if I don't respond right away don't take it the wrong way.

Taylor

So my hinting and dancing around the issue of mh has either been too subtle, or he wants me to spell it out a lot clearer. OK, so let's see what we can do:

Taylor,

I'm not sure quite what you mean regarding the NAP; I must admit that I thought that the cooling-off period formed part of the agreement - we said a minimum of 40t of NAP, so the cooling off could not begin until t108 if that NAP had to last until t118. If that is what you intend (basically providing advance notice of expiry) then I have no problem with that. If you were just after the option of cancelling as early as t118 (which I thought we had) can I suggest that we leave the cooling-off period in-place in the NAP agreement? Then if you do decided not to cancel right away, we would still both have a decent warning period - an auto-renewing NAP without a cooling-off period is really not worth having!

To summarise options:

A) NAP to t118 (including cooling-off period)
B) auto-renewing NAP, 10t cooling-off, cooling-off cannot be invoked before t108

You are correct that I have been avoiding giving a straight answer to your questions regarding mh. I believe I told you earlier in the game that I had no interest in acquiring either mh or your lands for myself (except maybe those contested border tiles in Bursa's BFC), and that statement still holds. I do not have the intention of pursuing an offensive war, but if attacked I would be forced to pursue the aggressor. However, if you and mh were to end up fighting, based on past relationships I would be willing to cooperate with you.

Regards,

Andy.

So I've defined an individual condition whereby I would be willing to aggressively war with mh - that they were already fighting - and have deliberately not said "yes I will plot with you aginst mh".