WW26: The Masquerade [Game Thread]

[Muriel The Slow]

Yes I am desperate. Anyone would be if they were in my place.

I did ask myself if Saul's overall play makes him scummy. I believe it does. His Day 1 was scummy, and so was his Day 2. The only reason we found his Day 2 townish was because it made sense in the context that he is the seer. Now we know that there is a high chance that he is not the seer (or a fool), therefore I find his Day 2 scummy. The biggest reason why I think a wolf would make this play is because I ran the numbers. At the end of it, if we started with 5 wolves, we have to lynch a wolf three times in a row to win. If we started with 6 wolves, we lose at the end of it. Harry made a good counter-point asking us why would the wolves would make the gambit if they could just let Muriel die on Day 3. The only answer I could think of was that this gambit would make the rest of the game predictable, but in any case it is a point in favor of Saul being the fool. Jon I agree with you that there should be more options than lynching just me or Saul, but I just don't think there are with these players we've got in this game. I hope I am wrong, and my desperate plea to lynch me later comes true and we have a shot to win.

[Muriel The Slow]

To clarify a badly written sentence:
"The biggest reason why I think a wolf would make this play is because I ran the numbers."

I meant that I ran the numbers, and they look good for the wolves, and that's why I find it possible for the wolves to play this gambit.

[Muriel The Slow]

The reason I find it "high chance" that he is a wolf is just because of the odds. Look at the events:
1. Muriel reveals her role as her last chance to live. A seer comes in and says he has proof of Muriel's innocence, making Muriel's reveal a waste and now the wolves know who the double voter is. Pretty unlucky!
2. The seer isn't really a seer, but a fool! Ahh that's unfortunate.
3. The seer is a fool that gives random results, there was 50% chance that he'd be right about Kate, and he wasn't. Really, is there no end to this bad luck?

[Muriel The Slow]

Note that Saul's seer reveal was after I had revealed my role. If the wolves believed that I would be safe Day 3 after making that reveal, then it makes even more sense to play the gambit.

[Muriel The Slow]

Note that Saul's seer reveal was after I had revealed my role. If the wolves believed that I would be safe Day 3 after making that reveal, then it makes even more sense to play the gambit.

Can you guys give me your honest opinions from back when you read my reveal? Did you believe me and thought you might not lynch me Day 3? If you guys changed your mind about me based on that, then I think the wolves would have also realized that it was convincing enough for the village to let Muriel live, and that would be the reason they set up the gambit. Without the gambit, on Day 3 Muriel would live and we could hit a wolf. With the gambit, the village would use their next three days on lynching two villagers and one wolf, which leads to a winning end-game for the wolves.

[Widow Edith]

@Muriel
your option 3 does not explain why the wolves let Saul alive after he announced you as villager. In fact none of your options sound like good play to me.

I offer one option you have not listed: Saul is a fool and you are a wolf. When Saul said he had prove that you are a villager you celebrated and let him live for exactly that reason. That he then continued to call a villager wolf was just the icing on the top. The fact that people now start to think about lynching you first is the reason for your anger and desperation.

If Saul is a wolf the play makes little sense. They could try the same stunt easily after you got lynched. Or even not announce a wolf but clear 1 or 2 of them by "seer-scans". That is far less risky for them, far more confusing for us and the far easier path to victory.

In short Saul as a wolf is possible but worse play = less likely than Muriel as a wolf and Saul a villager.
Also your running numbers is a strawman-argument. 6 scum in a 20 people game would earn the the GM a whipping with the cat o' nine tails especially if you take the Friars-role and the amount of standard villagers into account.

[Know-Nothing Jon]

Note that Saul's seer reveal was after I had revealed my role. If the wolves believed that I would be safe Day 3 after making that reveal, then it makes even more sense to play the gambit.

Well, your premature role reveal wasn't received all that well so I don't think that's true.

I don't understand what you're trying to say in post #823.

The big question for me is why Saul was allowed to make another scry, if both he and you are innocent. To the wolves, Saul must have looked like a genuine seer, and so they should either have blocked him or killed him, if they have no blocker.

Perhaps there are multiple wolf factions, and they were trying to kill him and he was protected, or they were all hoping he'd be killed by another faction. But if there are multiple factions, Easy Sarah should have flipped as something more than just "Werewolf". It seems strange to have multiple wolf factions but not distinguish between them in the flips. That would be pretty unfair for town.

Cross-posting a bit.

[Know-Nothing Jon]

Saul is a fool and you are a wolf.

Indeed, this seems to be a pretty neat way to tie up all the loose ends.

Muriel, perhaps you should elaborate on why your play so far doesn't make sense as a wolf, in your eyes?

[Young Will]

Some comments.
a) No matter what is the reason for Saul getting the wrong result it clearly shows Saul's scan are not to be trusted.

b) Given that this is neither a Tasunke-game nor a insane-power-game I think the chances of Will being scum are nearly 0
That he didn't go into greater detail is no problem. With John saying Will visited Bert and Bert telling exactly why he thinks Will is a villager it was clear that Will has a powerrole. There was really no need that he explains it any further. And if he is a neighbour then he has talked with Bert which might give us some more insights about what Bert thought.

i dunno about anyone else, but i rather lynch muriel to test saul's seer whether it random or opposite.

Young Will, please answer the following. In the morning, if you prefer.

1. Why did you choose to visit Bert on night 1?
2. Did you visit anyone on night 2?

I visited Bert because I had a strong feeling he was innocent. I also felt I knew who he was behind the mask (as I'm sure many of us probably felt they knew who Bert was) and felt he would be a good person to trust with that information.

On Night 2 I visited Widow Edith. If you notice she was going after me yesterday, even after Bert's reveal, and is now defending me from Muriel - thats why. I suspected her (and still do a little bit) and thought I would be able to attack her to see how she responded (i.e. knowing im innocent, if she responded by coming after me defensively, I could be more confident in her guilt). Obviously Saul's reveal took the game in a different direction (and real life kept me from doing that effectively anyway).

fyi, I have 3 uses. not sure there's much point in using the third use at this point though.

[Muriel The Slow]

Well, your premature role reveal wasn't received all that well so I don't think that's true.

I recall there not being many replies to it because soon Saul came up with the seer thing and we concentrated on that. I think what matters the most is how someone would feel when they read that. Would they be convinced or not? Wolves would obviously know that I was a villager, but they could still judge how convincing it sounds and whether they think the other villagers would believe it.

I don't understand what you're trying to say in post #823.

I know that I'm a villager, and that list assumes that Saul is really a fool. In that case everything that transpired was a series of unfortunate events for the village. We got unbelievably unlucky and it possibly cost us the entire game. While it is certainly possible, I think if we look at the odds, it's not LIKELY that we had so much bad luck.

Saul is a fool and you are a wolf.

Indeed, this seems to be a pretty neat way to tie up all the loose ends.

Muriel, perhaps you should elaborate on why your play so far doesn't make sense as a wolf, in your eyes?

I know I'm a villager and everything I have done in this game has been done to help the village. I also have the highest amount of posts, so it's not like I'm a lurker who has so little content that it's hard to say either way about their alignment. I don't have any specifics to point out why I am a villager, but I know that there is simply no way that anyone can make a case against me that says I'm a wolf and everything in it makes sense. You could take small things and ignore the rest, and in that way someone could make me look scummy, but if you look at the big picture my actions will make much more sense if I'm a villager than if I'm a wolf.