WW26: The Masquerade [Game Thread]

[Fat Rose]

I also worry about Fat Rose. She was very quiet after pushing Sister Mary and now only attacks the easy target Muriel

So it makes me suspicious that I question someone I don't agree with? Or that I was quiet on D3? Oh, wait, that was the day you told us that Kate is a wolf. Apart from that, you might have missed that I did actually discuss your case and raised some questions.

(As you do now with bringing the Rob, Sir Percival and Saul into it)

Edith I'm sure you would be quite happy about spending the next two days and three hours only discussing Muriel.

I honestly would be quite happy to discuss you and Saul the next two days. Probably Percival as well. I think we have a good chance to find a wolf within you 3.

[Muriel The Slow]

Because I'm not a fucking idiot. Yes, you are right, I didn't know 100% that he is the friendly neighbor. But I knew 99% sure that he is it. To me, the obvious answer is the correct answer. This extends to the entirety of this game. A ton of people here seem to think that people doing villagery things must be wolves trying to get villager credit. Villagers sticking their necks out for the good of the village must be wolves taking unnecessary risks to get villager credit. Works the other way around too, when people act obviously scummy like Rob or Percival, for some reason a lot of you think that they can't be scum because it's too obvious. Same thing with the whole fool/wolf debate. If Saul was a fool, we would have gotten extremely unlucky. The odds of him being a fool are much lower than the odds of him being a wolf, and that's why I think he is a wolf. If I wasn't such a competitive person I would tell you to just fucking lynch me so my point is proven. But I want to win this thing.

I get all that. But:

1) why in the world would you point out what my role is? I figured some people did, was just hoping the wolves didn't. now you've made damn sure they get that information. it seems to me you are desperate to find another candidate, not to find a *guilty* candidate.

2) the odds are higher that Saul is a fool than a wolf. The odds that saul is a wolf and you aren't are astronomically small. What you are proposing makes no sense. why would he stick his neck out and invent a seer role in order to get one villager (Kate) lynched over another (you). that would only make sense if you and Saul both were wolves.

In both scenarios (saul is a fool, or saul is a wolf) it only makes sense that you are a wolf, so better to lynch the sure thing first.

1) Perhaps I overestimate the wolves and they didn't know your role, but in any case I don't think it changes anything. If they know you are the friendly neighbor, they want to lynch you. If they don't know you are the friendly neighbor, they still want to lynch you because they know you are some kind of a power role and we have treated you as a confirmed villager. Whether they know or not changes nothing for the wolves, but it will help the village to have the information available to all of us. Me saying that you might be a wolf wasn't about finding a candidate to save myself. I specifically said to not lynch Will first even if the majority would believe you are a wolf, because it's too much of a risk when we have much scummier targets available. I wanted to have the information on the open, and everyone to know that you aren't 100% confirmed, and that everyone knows specifically the conditions under which you aren't a confirmed villager so they can make their own judgments about it when the time comes. For the record, your explanation for keeping it a secret was good. That plan relies on the wolves not having figured out your role, or else you'd get false reads, so I don't exactly think it was a good plan, but I believe that you believed it to be a good plan. So yeah, I suppose what I'm saying is that I now trust you to be a villager. Which sadly means that I'm going to be attacked over this, but it needs to be said.

2) Agreed if that was the case, but as I've already explained, it's not an exchange of one wolf for one villager. Remember what you yourself said before we lynched Kate? You said that if Kate flips villager, we must lynch Saul AND Muriel. It's an exchange of two villagers for one wolf. I will re-explain the gambit theory from the beginning for everyone:

1. Muriel is in trouble after being wrong about two villagers on Day 2. At this point it seems inevitable that Muriel will be lynched Day 3, and there wouldn't be any need for a wolf plot, they could just ride to an easy win.
2. Muriel throws in a curveball and reveals her role. Now, I don't know if you agree or not, but I thought it was convincing enough that I might not be lynched on Day 3 after all.
3. Saul claims seer and clears Muriel as a villager and Kate as a wolf.
4. Kate gets lynched, was a villager after all.
5. And now, as you have said yourself, the predictable play for the village is to lynch Saul and Muriel in response.

End result? Two villagers dead for one wolf. I've ran the numbers already, but here's the end result at the end of the plan: If 25% were wolves at the beginning, the village will need to lynch a wolf three times in a row to win. If 30% were wolves at the beginning, the wolves already won during the plan. Both of those are extremely good end-games for the wolves.

That said, the part that I don't understand is that if it's a wolf gambit, why did they start it before Night 2 finishes? Wouldn't it be better to start it after Night 2, so that we won't be asking the question "Why didn't Saul die?". And if Saul is a villager, why didn't he get lynched on Night 2 when he said he had evidence that Muriel was a villager? Okay, there was Saul's plan, he tried to underplay the importance of the evidence so he survives the night, which was a tactic that fooled me and could have fooled the wolves as well. That could be the reason. In fact, I suppose, when I put it that way, it kinda makes some sense for Saul to be the fool. But on the other hand, assuming he is a wolf, it could be that the wolves were simply sloppy in initiating the plan. They should have waited until after Night 2 is done, but maybe they missed that. It was a reactionary move and they might have jumped the gun too early before they thought of everything. Honestly, I still think Saul is more likely to be a wolf than a fool, but I would love to hear everyone's thoughts on the scenario. Maybe someone comes up with something that tips the scale on one side or the other. You are also welcome to discuss any Muriel-wolf theories. While those are obviously useless to me personally, I understand that they need to be discussed and I'll try not to start arguing with people for bringing them up.

[Half-Nose Harry]

Muriel, I don't follow or like your stance on Will at all. Bert, the confirmed by death villager, told us that barring a bastard GM, he is town. Not that he's probably town, or almost certainly town, but town. I had been suspicious of Will up until that point, and even up until Bert's flip I considered it might be some crazy wolf ploy. After the flip, it became fairly certain that Will is town, and I'd imagine to most people. In this post here:

Because I'm not a fucking idiot. Yes, you are right, I didn't know 100% that he is the friendly neighbor. But I knew 99% sure that he is it. To me, the obvious answer is the correct answer. This extends to the entirety of this game. A ton of people here seem to think that people doing villagery things must be wolves trying to get villager credit. Villagers sticking their necks out for the good of the village must be wolves taking unnecessary risks to get villager credit. Works the other way around too, when people act obviously scummy like Rob or Percival, for some reason a lot of you think that they can't be scum because it's too obvious. Same thing with the whole fool/wolf debate. If Saul was a fool, we would have gotten extremely unlucky. The odds of him being a fool are much lower than the odds of him being a wolf, and that's why I think he is a wolf. If I wasn't such a competitive person I would tell you to just fucking lynch me so my point is proven. But I want to win this thing.

you place great emphasis on how you evaluate things. You say you believe the obvious answer, or 99% sure answer is the correct answer. How on earth does that bring you to the conclusion that Will is scum? The word of a confirmed town that he is town vs the chance that there is a bastard role. I cannot see how you work this through with your stated logic and decide Will is scummy.

[Half-Nose Harry]

Bah, crossposted with a post containing an explanation of what I just asked.

[Agnes The Orphan]

2. Muriel throws in a curveball and reveals her role. Now, I don't know if you agree or not, but I thought it was convincing enough that I might not be lynched on Day 3 after all.

My reaction was that that role is a null tell. I've no idea why you thought that it was enough to save you from a lynch.

[Agnes The Orphan]

No, i think you read that bad. Maybe intentionally?

No, I agree with Edith. That statement came of sounding very off to me as well.

I thought it was a weird phrasing, but not particularly scummy.

Oh and I think Rose has been very active, and reads strongly village here as well.

[Agnes The Orphan]

Also, just as clarification for people confused by the Friendly Neighbour role (as I was), it generally cannot discuss with the target that it confirms itself to.

I think it's pretty obvious that percival is faking his post style - he even broke character on Day 1 IIRC.

[Know-Nothing Jon]

Personally, I am most tempted to just go back to where I was before Saul claimed his result on Kate. I.e. voting for Short Richard.

[Muriel The Slow]

Okay I was wrong about the possible wolf plot being a reactionary move. Everything Saul says after Night 1 actually supports the fact that he got a villager result of me on Night 1. It would have to be a long con if it was a wolf gambit. I don't know man, maybe I'm wrong in my ideology :/ I hope I am not wrong, because that would mean once again it's two villagers in the lynch race.

[Muriel The Slow]

Saul make sure you scan someone tonight.