WW26: The Masquerade [Game Thread]

[Know-Nothing Jon]

(Him=Muriel in the second paragraph.)

[Sir Percival]

enormous multiquote post on people pushing theory that saul is fool (random), not insane (opposite).

Your password has nothing to do with your role, Kate.

Saul's scans have shown one villager and one wolf. We know that it doesn't give opposite results, or all-town results, or all-scum results. You have claimed vanilla villager, so you are not a miller. As far as I know, that only leaves two choices: He is the seer and gets accurate results, or he is the fool and gets random results. If he is the fool, then we'll just accept the loss caused by extremely bad luck (and blame the game master for including the role ). If you do flip villager, Kate, we will absolutely lynch Saul next. I would hope.

well before day3 lynch resolved, very suggestive of saul being fool or scum.

I've also had a new thought on the seer situation, mainly thanks to Will's post telling us to lynch Saul AND Muriel if Kate flips a villager. This theory doesn't rely on Will being a wolf. First I thought that exchanging Kate-villager for Saul-wolf wouldn't make any sense for the wolves, but now I realize that if Kate is a villager, it's not just Saul who will be lynched, but also me. Currently we have 6 dead villagers and 1 dead wolf.

Let's assume 25% of the players were wolves, which should be the lowest possible amount of wolves. So at the beginning we had 5 wolves and 15 villagers. Right now we would have 4 wolves and 9 villagers alive. Let's look at the continuation:
Day 3 a villager dies, (4-8)
Night 3 a villager dies, (4-7)
Day 4 a wolf dies, (3-7)
Night 4 a villager dies, (3-6)
Day 5 a villager dies, (3-5)
Night 5 a villager dies. (3-4)
From this point forward, village has to lynch a wolf three times in a row in order to win.

If we assume that 30% of the players were wolves, we'd have 6 wolves 14 villagers at the beginning, and we would now have 5 wolves and 8 villagers alive. Continuation:
Day 3 a villager dies, (5-7)
Night 3 a villager dies, (5-6)
Day 4 a wolf dies, (4-6)
Night 4 a villager dies, (4-5)
Day 5 a villager dies, (4-4)
The wolves win.

Those really don't look good for the village, and it would now be understandable why the wolves would sacrifice Saul. The only thing that could give us a realistic chance to win would be to lynch Saul but not lynch Muriel. Which would pretty much make Day 5 the same as I thought Day 3 would be, the odds being very high on Muriel being lynched and the village losing the game. Fingers crossed that Saul really is the seer and Kate really is a wolf, else it's going to be a tough road ahead of us once again.

elaborate saul scum theory that also justify not lynch muriel, again before knowing kate alignment.

So no seer for us. Leaves fool or wolf.
In case we have a vig I would like him to consider Saul as target. Shooting him tonight might give us a useful day tomorrow instead of a repetition of today.

immediately rules out insane seer post-lynch.

This is not what I was thinking I would find when I took a look after the lynch . This puts us in a pretty bad situation overall, and looks like we'll end up wasting another game day on a set lynch for Saul. I'll echo Widow Edith's request that if we do have a vig to please shoot Saul and save us the wasted day.

instant implication that saul must die asap.

I really can't see Will being a wolf friendly neighbor. I was suspicious of him up until Bert cleared him, and even then somewhat until Bert flipped town. Once I knew for a fact that Bert was town, then I have to assume Will is innocent. A scum aligned friendly neighbor seems like it would be a very nasty role to have in a game, and if that's the case we're probably screwed anyways, since we have enough issues as it is. I really don't know what to think about Saul. I don't see why wolves would offer him up for one sure mislynch, and yes him flipping scum would mean that Muriel is suspect again, but she was already very heavily suspected by many, so that wouldn't gain them anything they didn't already have. That being said, I don't see how we can not lynch him at this point.

implies we have no alternative but to lynch saul.

But if Muriel is a wolf then it makes sense that Saul wasn't killed.

And if Saul is a wolf then it makes just as much sense. And you somehow forgot to mention the biggest scum tell of them all: He claimed seer, we believed him, and we ended up lynching a villager. It's pretty much the biggest wolf tell we could ever get in this game without it actually being a straight up 100% confirmation of a wolf. And the first thing you say is "Oh, he's probably villager, let's target this other villager instead because she wants to do the sensible thing!"

highly questionable logic.

Some comments.
a) No matter what is the reason for Saul getting the wrong result it clearly shows Saul's scan are not to be trusted.

implication saul is impossible to trust.

And if you guys really are confident that Saul is a villager and must live, and I'm a wolf and must die, then all I can ask is that you guys try to catch the other wolves before me. You will have to catch them anyway, please catch them first. We need to keep me and the double vote alive. If you postpone lynching me, the wolves will have to kill me in the night. They can't afford letting me go to the end game with my double vote. And I know that we have to start catching the scum if we want to win, we can't afford to spend the next three real life days going back and forth Muriel versus the world. I'm sorry that I'm mad, but you need a kick in the butt to get you started on catching scum. You were playing bad, and that's my honest opinion. Now you need to start playing good if we want to win. I will not argue with you guys after this message, because it would be counter-productive for the village. All that needs to be said has been said.

encourages village to ignore suspect widely believed to be wolf in favour of lynching other possibilities (this is really bad)

Is there a scum role that can target a player and make a seer scan on that player give out the opposite result? I have never heard of one, and it sounds like a long shot, but I figured I should ask anyway.

pushes another alternative to cover for muriel for when saul flips.

Isn't there a role that can switch targets? I think scum has that. It makes more sense than fool

and finally saul himself believing his scan got moved.


ok, so out of this, it really reaffirms my belief muriel and harry are scum, and edith doesnt come out looking that great either. i dunno if saul capable of faking what appear to be genuine shock at the result of that lynch.


i expected broadening of suspects, not to narrow down on muriel and harry tbh. im confident in lynching both of them now.

[Know-Nothing Jon]

Percival, I like the effort but I'm wondering if there could be some confirmation bias in there?

You can't fault Muriel for suggesting we lynch someone other than her. Also, from her perspective it would make sense to rule out an insane seer even before Kate flipped, since Saul scanned her as innocent.

[Widow Edith]

Sir Percival, I think that was the first real try at scumhunting from you this game so thank you.

You are right that I ruled out the insane cop. We never had one in this games and contrary to others I'm not a constant user of Mafia-wiki so I didn't think about it (in the first comment).

Insane cop is a good possibility with his latest result especially if we have no normal seer to counterbalance the fool. The task for us would then be to learn Sauls power instead to lynch him for his wrong result. That makes sense for gamebalancing reasons.

A framer or redirector would mean the wolves used their power on Kate in night 2 which I find rather unlikely
Scratch that found this post looking for an explanation of Sauls Kate-scan. That might explain how scum knew what to do.

[Sir Percival]

Percival, I like the effort but I'm wondering if there could be some confirmation bias in there?

You can't fault Muriel for suggesting we lynch someone other than her. Also, from her perspective it would make sense to rule out an insane seer even before Kate flipped, since Saul scanned her as innocent.

possible, but u can reread for urself if u want to double check. i tried to read with open mind, judging solely on content. there were lot more posts i thought about to quote (mostly from muriel) but opted against in end.

1st quote isnt meant to be a case against muriel, its just who brought up fool seer idea. i dont think rest put muriel in good light tho, and wouldnt put hher in good light regardless of whether she scanned.

[Muriel The Slow]

Percy, you forgot the fact that I know my own alignment, so that's why I can safely rule out the fact that Saul gets opposite results. But you are right that it is very peculiar that both Harry and Edith dismissed that possibility. Especially Edith, who had already claimed that I am a wolf for sure, and if I was a wolf then the existing scan results would have been opposite. Percy you put me in a tough spot because I'm still going to make that case against you, even though you now put some doubt into it. I just have one quick open question to you: do you have anything to share with us? And I don't mean your role, but how you have played this game. If there is some strategy behind it, I would like to hear it now.

[Widow Edith]

To refresh your Memory Muriel here what I wrote:

I offer one option you have not listed: Saul is a fool and you are a wolf. When Saul said he had prove that you are a villager you celebrated and let him live for exactly that reason. That he then continued to call a villager wolf was just the icing on the top. The fact that people now start to think about lynching you first is the reason for your anger and desperation.

If Saul is a wolf the play makes little sense. They could try the same stunt easily after you got lynched. Or even not announce a wolf but clear 1 or 2 of them by "seer-scans". That is far less risky for them, far more confusing for us and the far easier path to victory.

In short Saul as a wolf is possible but worse play = less likely than Muriel as a wolf and Saul a villager.

So I have seen you as wolf with Saul as fool but if you want I add: Another possibility is Saul is insane and you are a Wolf. If that makes you feel better. Still as you see I prefer lynching you over lynching Saul.
The only reason I'm not directly voting you is my finding of Sauls post which makes it possible that the wolves knew what he would do and intermingle.

[Sir Percival]

Percy, you forgot the fact that I know my own alignment, so that's why I can safely rule out the fact that Saul gets opposite results. But you are right that it is very peculiar that both Harry and Edith dismissed that possibility. Especially Edith, who had already claimed that I am a wolf for sure, and if I was a wolf then the existing scan results would have been opposite. Percy you put me in a tough spot because I'm still going to make that case against you, even though you now put some doubt into it. I just have one quick open question to you: do you have anything to share with us? And I don't mean your role, but how you have played this game. If there is some strategy behind it, I would like to hear it now.

if u mean why post so strangely, it simple. dont want to be easily identified.

[Widow Edith]

To recap the possibilities (as far as I know please yell if I missed something)

a) Saul is fool => Muriel is most likely scum (else the wolves would not have let Saul live on and scan)

b) Saul is insane => Muriel is scum

c) Saul is real seer but wolves had a framer => Muriel is villager

d) Saul is scum => all is possible.

Comments
ad a) Scum won't kill Saul or block him as he is spreading chaos with his reads and might lead a mislynch (seen from the point in N2 where he claimed Muriel innocent). If Muriel were really innocent then wolves would have most likely killed him.

ad b) self-explanatory. Also forces wolves to not kill Saul as him rolling insane would immediately kill Muriel.

ad c) the one reason I'm not posting Muriel all in red now. Especially as Saul

ad d) a risky move by the wolves which so far has yielded great results for them(+1 mislynch). b+c makes it rather difficult for us to lynch Saul.

[Widow Edith]

The second sentence in the commets to c) should read. Especially as Saul gave strong hints whom he might scan.