WW26: The Masquerade [Game Thread]

[Muriel The Slow]

Percy, you forgot the fact that I know my own alignment, so that's why I can safely rule out the fact that Saul gets opposite results. But you are right that it is very peculiar that both Harry and Edith dismissed that possibility. Especially Edith, who had already claimed that I am a wolf for sure, and if I was a wolf then the existing scan results would have been opposite. Percy you put me in a tough spot because I'm still going to make that case against you, even though you now put some doubt into it. I just have one quick open question to you: do you have anything to share with us? And I don't mean your role, but how you have played this game. If there is some strategy behind it, I would like to hear it now.

if u mean why post so strangely, it simple. dont want to be easily identified.

I understand the post style. It's the gameplay I have a problem with. I'll explain in detail when I make the case. I was hoping there was some method in your madness, but if there is, I will have a hard time believing it if you only reveal it after I make the case.

[Sir Percival]

whats the problem? i attack person i believe to be very scummy? i see little point in wasting my time on others when i have blatant scum right in front of me who i have consistently built case on and attacked for being scummy. maybe it tunnel vision, but i dont see why should distract from attempting to lynch clearest scum candidate with other case, particularly when im not target for scum to night kill.

[Muriel The Slow]

To recap the possibilities (as far as I know please yell if I missed something)

a) Saul is fool => Muriel is most likely scum (else the wolves would not have let Saul live on and scan)

b) Saul is insane => Muriel is scum

c) Saul is real seer but wolves had a framer => Muriel is villager

d) Saul is scum => all is possible.

Comments
ad a) Scum won't kill Saul or block him as he is spreading chaos with his reads and might lead a mislynch (seen from the point in N2 where he claimed Muriel innocent). If Muriel were really innocent then wolves would have most likely killed him.

ad b) self-explanatory. Also forces wolves to not kill Saul as him rolling insane would immediately kill Muriel.

ad c) the one reason I'm not posting Muriel all in red now. Especially as Saul

ad d) a risky move by the wolves which so far has yielded great results for them(+1 mislynch). b+c makes it rather difficult for us to lynch Saul.

You've completely overlooked the fact that after Saul said he had evidence that I'm a villager, he went and tried to undermine the importance of the evidence, Saul was even ready to die without revealing it. He undermined the evidence to the point that I personally thought there was no evidence to begin with. The wolves might have thought the same. Saul confirmed in his post after Night 2 ended that this was exactly what he was trying to do. There wasn't even any mention of a seer until then, the evidence could have been anything. If both me and Saul are villagers, which is something I'm starting to lean towards, all that the wolves saw was that Saul had some kind of evidence that clears Muriel, but Saul then undermined the importance of it and was ready to die before revealing it, so it must not be very good evidence. But if the wolves had killed Saul, then that would clear Muriel for sure, even if the evidence was bad or didn't even exist.

[Muriel The Slow]

whats the problem? i attack person i believe to be very scummy? i see little point in wasting my time on others when i have blatant scum right in front of me who i have consistently built case on and attacked for being scummy. maybe it tunnel vision, but i dont see why should distract from attempting to lynch clearest scum candidate with other case, particularly when im not target for scum to night kill.

Thanks.

[Widow Edith]

You've completely overlooked the fact that after Saul said he had evidence that I'm a villager, he went and tried to undermine the importance of the evidence, Saul was even ready to die without revealing it.

Have you ever been a wolf? I bet 20 bucks a dollar that the moment the wolves believe that Saul might be the real thing he is dead.

Except for possibility c). Which does allow you and Saul be villager but that is the only possible thing. In all other cases the wolves need to know that Saul is not the real thing which means 1 of you 2 are a wolf.

BTW:

But if the wolves had killed Saul, then that would clear Muriel for sure, even if the evidence was bad or didn't even exist.

If they let a seer live and go on scanning he will clear more and more villagers or even reveal a scum. The wolves did not block him and they did not kill him but somehow Kate turned up as scum in his reveals.

[Fat Rose]

So thinking a bit about our Seer-issue. First let me start with stating upfront that I don't like Sauls play since Kates mislynch. He started by stating one hour after the lynch:

Now we are going to lose because someone messed with my night 2 result

(Post #782)

But no one jumped on that comment and instead the talk was about fools, insane seers and him being a wolf. I guess he wasn't very happy with that because he states later

Guys, I had a thought. I think that me being a fool is not good. Who would want to play like that? So why do we think the GM did that to me? So I think maybe it is not like that. I think a better reason is someone messed with my night 2 result. Someone could switch my result maybe and that is why Kate showed as wolf. Maybe some wolf saw my post defending Muriel and thought they would switch me to mess me up and get a seer lynched.

(Post #807)

He brings that up as a new thought that he had, but he had that very same thought several hours earlier already stated in the thread. Read all the posts between those two as well, in that context it becomes imo even more obvious. I think he got annoyed that nobody started to discuss this possibility but wanted not to be to obvious that HE is the one who brings it up.

There is then some discussion about lynching him or Muriel. He first posts that there must be another way (=someone else to lynch) and then Muriel attacks him, stating

"If Saul was a fool, we would have gotten extremely unlucky. The odds of him being a fool are much lower than the odds of him being a wolf, and that's why I think he is a wolf."

And he replies:

I don't think you understand Muriel. Lynching me would be bad. You don't want that.

Post #850

That answer is odd. The standard answer to Muriels "I think he is a wolf" should be "No, I'm not a wolf". Especially the first part "I don't think you understand Muriel" makes no sense in that whole context imo. Questioned he explained that answer by feigning lack of understanding why he is even questioned about it, because it should be obvious that he as seer is a bad lynch for the village. And thats in theory true of course. But it doesn't explain that first sentence.

Edith has pointed that out already, Harry agreed with her and Agnes also agreed at least that the wording is odd, though in her eyes not particularly scummy. After that followed more posts from him and all didn't really give a villager vibe to me (and to others).

The last one is finally when he tells us that he scanned Jon as a wolf. Stating it might be that his result got screwed again with, but he would want to read more first before voting, because he doesn't trust his scan-result enough to vote for Jon just based on that. That for me reads actually more like "I really want to vote for Jon, but nobody will believe me if I vote just because of my scan".

In short: I don't trust Saul and I think his recent posting makes him very scummy.

[Muriel The Slow]

You've completely overlooked the fact that after Saul said he had evidence that I'm a villager, he went and tried to undermine the importance of the evidence, Saul was even ready to die without revealing it.

Have you ever been a wolf? I bet 20 bucks a dollar that the moment the wolves believe that Saul might be the real thing he is dead.

Except for possibility c). Which does allow you and Saul be villager but that is the only possible thing. In all other cases the wolves need to know that Saul is not the real thing which means 1 of you 2 are a wolf.

BTW:

But if the wolves had killed Saul, then that would clear Muriel for sure, even if the evidence was bad or didn't even exist.

If they let a seer live and go on scanning he will clear more and more villagers or even reveal a scum. The wolves did not block him and they did not kill him but somehow Kate turned up as scum in his reveals.

I just explained it to you, are you really this thick or do you intentionally ignore my words because I happened to hit the nail on the head? When Night 2 was coming to an end, it looked like Saul didn't even have evidence, or if he did, it would be really bad evidence. He was ready to die without revealing it. So why the fuck would the wolves automatically assume that:
- The evidence exists
-> The evidence exists and is good evidence
-> The evidence exists and is good evidence and Saul is taking a huge risk by bluffing
-> The evidence exists and is good evidence and Saul is taking a huge risk by bluffing and out of every possible way of gaining evidence, the one in this case MUST be that Saul is a seer

Everything that happened before the wolves Night 2 lynch points AGAINST them thinking the way you claim they would.

[Sir Percival]

wolves would assume that coz they reread saul's day 2? not like there was no time.

[Widow Edith]

I just explained it to you, are you really this thick or do you intentionally ignore my words because I happened to hit the nail on the head? When Night 2 was coming to an end, it looked like Saul didn't even have evidence, or if he did, it would be really bad evidence. He was ready to die without revealing it. So why the fuck would the wolves automatically assume that:
- The evidence exists
-> The evidence exists and is good evidence
-> The evidence exists and is good evidence and Saul is taking a huge risk by bluffing
-> The evidence exists and is good evidence and Saul is taking a huge risk by bluffing and out of every possible way of gaining evidence, the one in this case MUST be that Saul is a seer

Everything that happened before the wolves Night 2 lynch points AGAINST them thinking the way you claim they would.

Thanks for your insults. Very nice playing with you.

Again:
For them the situation is: Saul might be the real seer (little else gives evidence and even less gives so with death).
They plain simply can't let him live.
His willingness to die without talking is another point in that direction. As you said a dead seer confirms you being innocent so no need for him to talk before.

The wolves can't risk to let a true seer live and scan and provide more and more evidence. They will do anything possible to stop that. Which leads to exactly the aforementioned possibilities above. Either they knew he is not the real thing which means one of you 2 is scum or they knew they can change his results and decided to risk it. There is no other way.

[Widow Edith]

BTW Muriel why are you arguing so hard or for what set-up are you arguing?. I said if you and Saul are villagers then the wolves have a framer what is your problem with that?
Why are you arguing that you and Saul are both honest to god villagers but without a Framer? Wasn't it you who asked around if such role exists?

How do you explain the results Saul got and him still being alive?