WW26: The Masquerade [Game Thread]

[Young Will]

While I could perhaps be persuaded by the "we have to lynch Muriel" angle in your second paragraph, I have to wonder if you're really being honest when you conclude by saying that she cannot be innocent? I don't understand where that level of certainty is coming from. Don't you think it's possible that she's just a terrible villager?

anythings possible, I suppose. it doesnt feel that way to me, though. and it would require Saul to be a wolf that invented a seer role to save a villager, which doesnt seem plausible.

I like percy's #912 post a lot. I'll have to pay attention to Harry, i didn't before.

its looking like muriel and saul are both scum, and edith and harry are possibilities. but I think we have to lynch muriel - it gives the most information (especially in regards to Saul), resolves issues we've had since the beginning of the game - and finally just gets rid of someone thats cursing and insulting everyone else, which isn't unimportant, imo.

I don't really see how she could be innocent.

Lynching me will not even give you anything on Saul. I will flip villager and you still won't know whether Saul is a wolf or a fool or even a seer.

If you lynch innocent, then we know Saul is not a false-read fool. a false read fool can be valuable, but a random-read fool is worthless, might as well be a vanilla villager. if we know saul is either random or a wolf then he becomes an easy lynch.

I think a random read fool is very unlikely though, the simplest and most likely explanation is that saul is a false-read jester, and you are guilty.

[Young Will]

Fat Rose's post #926 is very good. Likewise for Percival's post #943.

Still kind of hard to believe that both Saul and Muriel are scum, though. It's just too fancy play, and if they wanted to save Muriel I don't see why both of them would pop their claim on the same night. Keep in mind that it would have to be a gambit that was planned well in advance, since Saul changed his play right from the beginning of day 2. Saul has been a bit scummy but I don't think his play makes any sense as scum unless Muriel is also scum, so that leads me to the paradoxical conclusion that he's innocent.

Muriel could of course still be scum, with Saul being either a random fool or an insane cop.

I agree with this. If Muriel lynches guilty I don't think that means we have to lynch Saul at all. But one of them is scum, and thats the best lead that we have right now.

[Muriel The Slow]

Will please look at the numbers. After you lynch me and I flip villager, you will have to lynch 4 wolves in a row because it's 5 villagers to 4 wolves at the start of Day 5, if we assume 25% wolves start. It doesn't matter if Saul is a good lynch at that point, he has to be a perfect lynch. But you still won't know whether he's a fool or a wolf or a real seer. The fate of the village would be entirely up to luck, and that's just the first of four lynches you will have to get right. The information you gain from lynching me probably isn't enough to get 4 hits in a row. I have that information currently, since I am Muriel, but I'm still having a hard time figuring out who the wolves are. There's no way I could hit 4 in a row with what I've got at the moment.

[Young Will]

Will please look at the numbers. After you lynch me and I flip villager, you will have to lynch 4 wolves in a row because it's 5 villagers to 4 wolves at the start of Day 5, if we assume 25% wolves start. It doesn't matter if Saul is a good lynch at that point, he has to be a perfect lynch. But you still won't know whether he's a fool or a wolf or a real seer. The fate of the village would be entirely up to luck, and that's just the first of four lynches you will have to get right. The information you gain from lynching me probably isn't enough to get 4 hits in a row. I have that information currently, since I am Muriel, but I'm still having a hard time figuring out who the wolves are. There's no way I could hit 4 in a row with what I've got at the moment.

and how exactly do you how many wolves there are?

your argument is true regardless of who we mislynch, and doesnt do anything to establish your innocence.

[Muriel The Slow]

Will please look at the numbers. After you lynch me and I flip villager, you will have to lynch 4 wolves in a row because it's 5 villagers to 4 wolves at the start of Day 5, if we assume 25% wolves start. It doesn't matter if Saul is a good lynch at that point, he has to be a perfect lynch. But you still won't know whether he's a fool or a wolf or a real seer. The fate of the village would be entirely up to luck, and that's just the first of four lynches you will have to get right. The information you gain from lynching me probably isn't enough to get 4 hits in a row. I have that information currently, since I am Muriel, but I'm still having a hard time figuring out who the wolves are. There's no way I could hit 4 in a row with what I've got at the moment.

and how exactly do you how many wolves there are?

your argument is true regardless of who we mislynch, and doesnt do anything to establish your innocence.

I said assuming 25% start. That means 5 wolves at the beginning, 4 would be alive at the start of Day 5.

I'm not trying to establish my innocence here. You said you'd gain information on Saul by lynching me. You will not.

[Widow Edith]

I'm torn whom to vote for today. Torn between 2 possibilities. 1 of them is the most likely scum the second is the greatest benefit.

A) Short Richard: Not only is he lurking hardcore (less posts than Scarlet John who died on D2 and wasn't a great poster!) but once he posts he is as scummy as it gets. He is the one where we have the highest chance to hit scum. The drawback is we won't get much information out of it.

B) Muriel: Not only is there a good chance she is scum we have also a lot of information thanks to her interactions with others.
But there is another benefit for the village: It will make the thread far more friendlier, reduce the swearwords and make the game enjoyable. And that is a huge benefit no matter what color she is. Without the unending discussion with her and about her we have a higher chance to find the other scum.


For now I'll go with thee most likely scum: Short Richard

About Saul: I can't say I like his last posts but I don't think he is preferable to one of those 2.

[Young Will]

I'm torn whom to vote for today. Torn between 2 possibilities. 1 of them is the most likely scum the second is the greatest benefit.

A) Short Richard: Not only is he lurking hardcore (less posts than Scarlet John who died on D2 and wasn't a great poster!) but once he posts he is as scummy as it gets. He is the one where we have the highest chance to hit scum. The drawback is we won't get much information out of it.

B) Muriel: Not only is there a good chance she is scum we have also a lot of information thanks to her interactions with others.
But there is another benefit for the village: It will make the thread far more friendlier, reduce the swearwords and make the game enjoyable. And that is a huge benefit no matter what color she is. Without the unending discussion with her and about her we have a higher chance to find the other scum.


For now I'll go with thee most likely scum: Short Richard

About Saul: I can't say I like his last posts but I don't think he is preferable to one of those 2.

eh, I agree w/ all this, I just think option B is preferrable to A .

[Know-Nothing Jon]

But one of them is scum, and thats the best lead that we have right now.

This is based on the "why was Saul allowed a second scry" argument, right? Or is there another reason why one of them has to be scum?

I would rephrase it as "at most one of them is scum", and then those odds don't seem so great to me. If I assume four wolves remaining, which is reasonable, and I assume that one of Muriel/Saul is scum, then I'll still have a 3/8 chance of hitting a wolf by lynching someone other than Muriel/Saul. And that's before I take any reads into consideration. If I also clear you, that becomes 3/7. And if it so happens that both Muriel and Saul are innocent, my actual odds of hitting a wolf would be 4/7.

[Muriel The Slow]

Okay let's do this, I've spent too many hours re-reading and trying to figure everything out. I must admit that I didn't expect to end with a list that I did. Two people I had marked down as sure scum before today ended up being villagers on my final list. There is also a very controversial call that is almost sure to raise the pitchforks against me, but I will still post it because I believe in it.

Villagers

Jon: He's been a helpful force from the beginning. I don't think anyone denies his villager status.
Rose: Even though she's been wrong a few times, she always gives her reasons and makes good points.
Percival: He was happy to have me call him a noob villager despite the fact that he actually isn't a noob. He got really desperate when we made the meta argument that cleared Courage and made him, Easy Sarah and Widow Edith look suspicious. He tried to force me to reveal on Day 1, which wouldn't be good for the village. Yet, despite this, I still think he is a villager. I discovered on my re-read that he makes a lot more good points than I remembered. I might have been blinded by his insistence to lynch me. And most of all, he made a great post today, calling out both Harry and Edith, who I believe are scum.
Rob: Yes, he got emotional. He had tunnel vision. He rage quit. And I now understand how he felt, because I've been extremely frustrated as well. His original argument wasn't bad for an early game argument, but we weren't listening to it because of who he was. His fight with Edith was a huge turning point I think, because he actually went after someone else for a change. And when it looked like the fight ended abruptly and maybe it was just two scum distancing, then it picked up again. Also on Day 2 he defended John, which sounded sincere to me on my re-read. I wish he had been around to push more cases after his fight with Edith. My call is that Rob is a villager.

Lower bracket villagers

Agnes: She was very eager and excited on the first day, posting a lot of stuff. That stuff wasn't very impressive though, it was a lot of haphazard questions and such. Made her seem more helpful than she really was. Rose called her out on it, and since then she has posted very little and has flown under the radar. Is it a coincidence? It could be, and I don't think Agnes has been that scummy. But if I'm wrong about the people I think are scum, she is the closest to scum I've got.
Richard: He is a lurker. Could go either way, really. I found his posts quite neutral or slightly scummy, maybe a bit confused. But I have him cleared by association, because he seems to be a popular lynch choice by the people who I think are scum.

Werewolves

Harry: He is a smart player and always on top of things, but he has not done any scum hunting at all. His game has been a pure 100% reactionary game. Always reacting to the moves and posts others make. Always asking a lot of questions. He is a capable player, he could catch some scum if he wanted to.
Doctor Saul: While I find the idea of him being a fool plausible, he is here for two reasons. First is obviously the fact that his scan was wrong and Kate is dead. But that one would be explained by him being a fool. What I find even more suspicious is his change in style. Not just his writing, but also his skill level. At the beginning of the game, he was a good player who could elaborate well and had good knowledge of the game. Now he writes in a completely different fashion, "dumbed down" as Jon puts it, and it's not just the style, also the knowledge. He apparently didn't know what a fool was, and was completely lost on the whole seer debacle. But early in the game he knew stuff like WIFOM and in general seemed capable. It is really strange. Oh, there was a third reason too, by association I would rank him here too, since the other scum don't want to lynch him. Even Harry, who first said we must lynch Saul, is now voting for Percival.
Will: I know, I'm going to get so much shit for this. But I have to be honest. If Bert had not cleared Will, I would be lynching Will, and so would many of you. His entire game has been scummy, especially reading in retrospect. Him going twice against Edith looks bad too, both times he gave up really easily. He has said that he has a hard time getting reads. Was it the three days of lurking that gave him the confidence that he now has that I must absolutely be a wolf and there is no other solution? We also shouldn't forget the fact that Bert never did confirm what his interaction with Will was. He happened to conveniently be night killed. Everything about Will screams scum to me, except for the fact that Bert said Will is a villager. It's just too much for me to ignore, so my call is that Will is scum.
Edith: Well, for starters there is the meta argument at the beginning. She was one of those who voted Courage despite the fact that she described the villager PM well, and villagers should recognize this. When we started discussing it, Edith was quick to call "Can we now put the meta to rest and play the game?", hoping that we would be satisfied with just clearing Courage and leaving it at that, instead of going after her, Easy Sarah, and Percival based on that meta argument. She also disappeared for a while here, which is uncharacteristic of her later game. Much later in the game she claims that her vote on Courage was just to show her disapproval of the possible mass identity claims, and I wonder if that was said just because she realized we might bring back up the meta argument later and she could use a safe-guard. Early in the game, she defends me from Percival, saying that Percival was being unfair in disregarding every case and argument I made just because he saw me through wolf-glasses, but later in the game Edith has no trouble doing the same thing when defending herself. She also said that in keeping me alive, if I am a wolf, I would eventually betray myself and/or my scum buddies. That never happened, but she is still merrily lynching me. I think in general she is a bit like Harry in that she asks a lot of questions. She sits on the fence quite a bit and feels like a spectator more like a player at times. I think her reaction to mine and Rob's attacks are the way a scum would react when feeling uncomfortable. Which is a lot different from the way she reacted to Will's.

My lynch preference: Edith and Harry first, pick your favorite. I'll drop my vote tomorrow.

I know, the wall of text should be way bigger, but I already put way too many hours into this game in the last two days.

Laugh ahead, flame ahead, attack ahead.

[Young Will]

lol