WW27 Game Thread: Once there were 12

[Azza]

Is there some reason behind this instant jumping on Gazglum thing?

[Gazglum]

Jowy, why do you think MJW didn't have much longevity? And regardless of why you think so, Gazglum looks very scummy for parroting that idea.

MJW was a leading candidate for the noose Day 1, and then hadn't changed his behaviour Day 2. Q and Jkaen had been on him Day 2. Serdoa had attacked him. If we had mislynched another candidate Day 2, then one of the alternative theories to MJW would have been shot and he would be one the most popular suspects left alive. I can imagine MJW skating past another day or so, but I really can't see that he could have made it all the way - especially if he was still around at LyLo.

I'm not trying to excuse my not voting him by saying I would totally have got him later, if that's what you're implying. I just don't think he would have got to the finish line, and that means I think it is premature to automatically assume that at least one of the scum wouldn't be willing to join a bus brigade for town points.

But speaking of parroting, looking back through the days, I've noticed Azarius following in my footsteps a fair bit.

> Jowy says 'should one vote for the lesser of two evils?
> Glum

If you're on at deadline then yes, you should vote for the lesser of two evils. BEcause even if you're right about your target (Zak) being a wolf, one of the two players on the block might be as well. And if it is a wolf vs villager contest, and you're abstaining by voting Zak, then you're making it easier for the wolves to make sure their man doesn't hang. There's nothing to stop you saying, "Zak is my first preference, but for the purpose of this lynch I'll vote X".

> Azarius

Jowy… You say you aren't sure if you should vote for the lesser of two evils, instead of someone you yourself suspect. Certainly throughout the day vote your suspicions, I'm not saying you should blindly follow others. But at the end of the day, if you are voting somewhere it is impossible to matter, it is suspect to me. Leaving your vote on as the sole vote on someone going into a lynch makes it easier to hide if you are scum, and you can just say "it is who I suspect".

On posting style:

> Glum

I'm back, and I'm unimpressed by what I've seen from Jowy overnight. It's harder to get a baseline on him, because he mixes up his styles game to game. But two aspects of his village play as nogrammarJowy and Muriel were consistent: he was at or near the top in post-count, and he commented on everybody. In his first game I remember him making some complete ordered suspect lists, and he made incisive comments on several people including pegging me as a wolf from the start.

> Azarius

Gazglum raises a good point on Jowy's prolific posting from earlier games. Last game at times it felt as is half of what I read was from Muriel, he seemed to comment on almost everything. Definitely more subdued posting this game from him. I don't necessarily think by itself this is damning, but it does add to my general suspicion of him.

On Yes-Man Zak:

> Glum

Zak -...my main issue is that he is following Novice a lot, rather than starting his own attacks. If he's still alive Day 4, I might start throwing a few sceptical third world child looks his way. But no real scum tells at the moment.

> Glum

While you're on, I'd like to ask you about Zak. Basicalyl every move you've made this game, he's come in straight behind you and parroted it. Often without even providing any reasoning at the time. I'm not rereading now, but I think he copied you on the possibility of lynching Serdoa, on voting me start of Day 2, on pressuring Jowy, and finally on switching votes to MJW at the end of the day. If Zak is scum looking to play a long game, I think he would be willing to bus MJW, and do it early enough to get town credit. After all, it wasn't likely MJW was going to last that many more days as it is.

> Azarius

Any particular reason why you're just following Novice? There are certainly worse choices to follow this game, but you seem to have spent quite a bit of time on his coattails.

Finally, Mattimeo, looking back through I don't think you're scum anymore. MJW's behaviour towards you doesn't make sense to me if you were. So...sorry and stuff, I guess?

[zakalwe]

MJW was a leading candidate for the noose Day 1, and then hadn't changed his behaviour Day 2. Q and Jkaen had been on him Day 2. Serdoa had attacked him. If we had mislynched another candidate Day 2, then one of the alternative theories to MJW would have been shot and he would be one the most popular suspects left alive. I can imagine MJW skating past another day or so, but I really can't see that he could have made it all the way - especially if he was still around at LyLo.

You're saying that the heat on MJW wouldn't go away, but the wolves could kill off people who suspected him (they already killed one of them), and their own voting power would keep increasing. So to imply that he was doomed to hang sooner or later is a stretch. For example, if you are innocent, and Mattimeo is innocent, like you now presume, then they could have tried to swing one or two mislynches there.

I can see Azarius as scum too; you, him, and Azza are the most plausible candidates right now, IMO. But both of them have a few points in their favor, but I don't have any specific points in your favor.

After that we are into various bussing/distancing theories. I'm not dismissing them, but it is better to keep things simple now that we can afford another two mislynches.

Reading Gaz's post I have to point out that Serdoa's biggest targets when he as night killed was novice and zak. So the rest of your post does'nt follow logically anymore. Why did'nt you follow the night talk? You still have to answer some other questions though.

This strikes me as a suspicious interaction, at the time when Novice and I were on Gazglum. Some mild questioning from MJW that doesn't commit him to anything; he can either escalate it into a full-blown suspicion, or he can just let it blow over. He chose the latter, even if the "night talk" question was never answered, as far as I can see.

[Gazglum]

I genuinely didn't understand what that post of MJWs was saying, or if it was actually directed at me, which is why I didn't respond to it.

I understand the logic of looking at Azza, Azarius and me for scum, but I don't understand what makes me the one to focus on. What are the points in their favour that I don't have? You and Novice vote me, imply that I have to explain myself, but you've missed the part about actually building a case. Which means I have to miss the part about defending myself, because you're giving me nothing to defend against.

Unlike my scum game last time, I have been scum-hunting all the way through, and putting a ton of effort in. Azarius has been popping in occasionally saying, "Yes, I agree." We both tried to kill Mattimeo, but I led that wagon and I am happy to own it, while Azarius turns around and votes me without explanation, presumably for trying to get Mattimeo hanged instead of scum MJW as that is the only change in the game, which is EXACTLY WHAT HE WAS DOING.

And once this day begins, I am back at the coal face reading through posts, while Azarius (and others) who are awake, respond with not a peep.

Why am I scummier than Azarius? Because I asked you to switch off MJW with 30 seconds to spare? I'm not a brave wolf Zak. If my scumbuddy MJW was that likely to go down, do you think I would burn all the cred I had apparently built up with the town to try and get Mattimeo hanged instead? Because if you think Mattimeo is town, then even if I had succeeded, I would have made myself look pretty damn bad. Why wouldn't I sit snug on Jowy and let things roll as they may?

[Jkaen]

There is one big question that as yet has not been asked.

We have already lost our doctor for the game, I find it unlikely we had 2.

A no kill on behalf of the scum I believe puts them a day behind, so would seem a very curious tactic.

Hence the most obvious solution surely must be that the village has a roleblocker. If that is the case then I would ask the roleblocker to announce who they are and who they blocked and save an awful lot of debate today.

Normally the argument would be you don't want to out a power role, but all roles we have seen so far are limited shots, so there would be a good chance he is out of power by now anyway.

[Gazglum]

There is one big question that as yet has not been asked.

We have already lost our doctor for the game, I find it unlikely we had 2.

A no kill on behalf of the scum I believe puts them a day behind, so would seem a very curious tactic.

Hence the most obvious solution surely must be that the village has a roleblocker. If that is the case then I would ask the roleblocker to announce who they are and who they blocked and save an awful lot of debate today.

Normally the argument would be you don't want to out a power role, but all roles we have seen so far are limited shots, so there would be a good chance he is out of power by now anyway.

I agree with this, assuming that someone had a one-shot ability, I can't see a downside in them revealing it. But I don't think they should reveal it just yet. Lets get those interaction tells happening, which would be easier if people would post today.

Jkaen, what do you think of Azarius?

[zakalwe]

I'm short on time, Gazglum, so briefly:
- You already had stated strong conviction for Mattimeo over MJW, so pushing him even more was just staying in character.
- I agree that the effort you put in should count as a point in your favor.
- Azza's game is scummy but actually deviates from his scum baseline. I would be voting for him in a heartbeat if this were an anonymous game.
- Azarius has played a wishy-washy noncommittal game (going from memory) but attacked MJW on day 1, and didn't have a guilty conscience when I attacked him.

Ok, on balance, maybe Azarius is in fact a better lynch. I'll give you some breathing room.

[Jkaen]

I have no real feel on Azarius. I will review when I get a bit of time later today.

[Azza]

I'm leaning Zak right now.

[Gazglum]

I would like to postulate the MJW – Azarius – Jkaen theory. I know you have to take things one step at a time, and for me that step at the moment is Azarius. But for future reference, I read through with that trio in mind as a possibility, and came up with the following notes.

Jkaen and MJW had a lot of interactions, mainly mildly hostile. Jkaen says almost nothing about Azarius. Azarius attacks Jkaen.
I know that you can line selected quotations from any group of people up in a row and it looks really suspicious and scumhunty, so I’m not saying this is a lock. I’m just considering it as a possible, to be discarded if Azarius turned up town, and I wanted to put the notes up for others too.

JKAEN #17: MJW acting like self for being crazy. Votes Zak though, because crazy is MJW’s baseline.

JKAEN #18: A somewhat superfluous vote count with links, at the start of Day 1.

JKAEN #32

I will admit I am treating you and MJW differently, but that is because from prior experience it would be suspicious if MJW didnt post some bizarre theory I disagreed with, where as even if I disagree with what you say, I typically expect a logical path to your theories.

End of the day I have learnt (as you pointed out earlier infact) that acting 'anti-town' is not in itself a scum tell, it is acting differently than normal that is suspicious.

MJW posting that theory is normal, you posting yours felt slightly off

AZARIUS #52: Votes MJW for overreacting to Zak, so basically opposite of Jkaen.

JKAEN #56: Regretting bringing distracting Zak vote

JKAEN #58: Switches to a Serdoa pressure vote

JKAEN #71: Serdoa hated this post, although I think he was overreacting a bit,

Well, we at least got 1 more post out of Serdoa, and truth be told I am not going to push hard for a day 1 policy lynch.

The MJW train as has been pointed out is just so obvious as a day 1 safe bet for votes, I can't bring myself to vote there as he is generally just a mislynch waiting to happen.

Mattimeo however complains about the discussion being all on zak's post, then mentions nothing else in his email, finally (as the last person of the day) voting the easy MJW. Also Serdoa and MJW mislynches tell us pretty much nothing, if we do end up wrong on Matt, then there is at least a link through to Gazglum that we can poke at a bit

Mattimeo

Not a brilliant case, but best option I can currently see day 1

JKANE #79: Hypothetical to Classical Hero asking what if MJW is lynched and turns out to be town? (I liked this post though, trying to draw out Classical Hero)

SERDOA #81: Everything he has seen from Jkaen ‘screams wolf’ (so Jkaen, alongside me, Zak and Novice had a motive to kill Serdoa)

JKAEN #118: Asks why MJW voting for Zak

JKAEN #125: Expresses firm disapproval of policy lynching Classical Hero

AZARUIS #128: Responds to Jkaen, argues with him:

I don't see it as a policy lynch myself. What seems to be his reasoning for voting Azza, because he doesn't think he'll get votes, is awful. Unless there is a policy to vote for bad play. Why is Mattimeo a more attractive lynch Jkaen? I feel like the case on him is weak, even by day 1 standards. It also seems cruel to lynch someone twice in a row on day 1 unless they do something really obvious.

Note Azarius went on to vote Mattimeo all through Day 2.

AZARIUS #166: Azarius starts his day with a pressure vote on Matt, with reasonable explanation that he wants to get Mattimeo talking

JKAEN #176: Votes Q for ‘low level scumminess’

This bit interests me - The Kill Question

AZARIUS #166: ‘that (Serdoa) was an expected kill’

JKAEN #175: Jkaen asks Azarius why he expected Serdoa to die?

MJW #185: MJW votes Azarius for same reason, saying he’s keeping his vote there until he gets an answer.

Azarius’ comment seem pretty obvious and innocuous. Of course Azarius wasn’t going to say “I expected Serdoa to die because I killed him.” I can understand Jkaen asking why, MJW’s vote seems an overreaction. It could be MJW just looking for an excuse to vote someone, or it could be theatre. The whole thing feels a bit off to me.

Azarius and MJW are now both talking about voting Mattimeo.

MJW #181: MJW tells Jkaen that Novice and Zak both had motives for killing Serdoa

JKAEN #200: Jkaen asks MJW a clarifier about one of his incomprehensible posts.

JKAEN #211: Decides that Q not so random as he thought, changes his vote to MJW vote as a seeming pressure vote, asks him to clarify his thoughts. This is the last time he says anything about MJW as a suspect, but the vote rides through to lynch.

Having done that exercise its not quite as scattergun and random as I had the impression, as the same names do seem to crop up in different posts quite often.

I think MJW seems to be changing his story as he goes along now, and I am wondering if he is hiding behind his reputation. MJW can I have a summary of your current feeling on the different players, because quite frankly I have no idea what you are thinking currently

AZARIUS #224: Azarius explains why he thought Serdoa would die – obviously town, good player

AZARIUS #225: Azarius asks MJW why is he keeping his vote on Matt, says he could be hiding behind it. Good point, in Azarius' favour.

MJW #244: MJW gives his list of thoughts on everybody, a valuable primary document. My feeling is that scum generally try to give the Goldilocks appraisal of their buddies – not too scummy, not too town. But MJW is in a world of his own, so really I don’t know what he would do. Reposted in spoiler:

1. Zak, already said.
2. Qgqqqqq. I've always had a hard time reading him. The fact that he's not done anything usefel and is attacking me does not help him. Other than that he's okay as he has a decent amount of posts and has'nt done anything too wolfish.
3. Mattimeo. Not posting a lot. He's posts seem decent though. He's attacking and voting people legittly, for now.
4. MJW-- I know I'm a villager.
5. novice. Posting a lot and seems to be sincere. He did get attacked by Serdoa, though. I have to read his posts carefully...
6. Jkaen. I struggle to get read on him. He always seems to be fishing for information. But that is understandable as he's never around for the lynch. He feels a bit more passive than usaul.
7. Jowy. Seems to be acting like his normal self. I cannot get a strong read on him but that is because of his murky posting style.
8. Azza. Acting like his normal self but that is not good. I cannot even remember who he is voting for.
9. Az. Not posting a lot but other than that he's pretty good. The reason I attacked him is because knowing who would get night-killed would be very wolfish.
10. Gaz. Seems to be posting a lot and feels sincere.

MJW #257: Dismisses Zak’s case on Azarius

Q, I think the onus should be on you to explain why Jkaen deserves such a strong village lean. Personally I think that is premature, even if I haven't got any specific scumtells on him.

MJW, why were you so dismissive of my case against Azarius yesterday? Looking back, my argument should be right up your alley, as you love to pick on minor anomalies. If he did deliberately choose to let people think he was new, don't you think that would be significant?

Just because. There were people making far fewer content then him. And the anomalies he did weren't that wolfish. Why wolf wolf Az not want to correct people that he is not new? Why would a villager Az not want to correct, ether? The most likely expiation is that he didn't read the fact that people were mistaking him.

I actually agreed strongly with MJW here, I thought this was townish and that it gave town points to MJW and Azarius. But I know now MJW was a wolf. Still, I did think that scum are MORE likely to read the thread carefully, so a scum Azarius would have been less likely to miss that, so I still think it is a slight town lean on Azarius.