WW27 Game Thread: Once there were 12

[Jkaen]

Went reviewing Jowy's posts a bit, but first thought I can requote this:

Well losing 2 key power roles this early sucks pretty badly, interseting they went for Serdoa.

I have to admit I had a moment of happyness when I read the post saying the night was ended with no kill message in it!

GG serdoa
I agree that gazglum and jkaen look a bit worse after that. I agree with novice that he has seemed rather focussed on one target. I would like to hear more thoughts from matt though.
I'm not sure I really understand your play MJW - what is your stance on zak? Is it a weak read that merely noticing that classical_hero had 4 posts was enough to shift you, or was it simply that you couldn't get support?
If the former, why not mattimeo, who also had 4?

Not sure I completely agree here. Thats who Serdoa was talking about voting for back around the middle of day 1, but reviewing his posts:

#15 - Meta
#64 - Vote MJW crazy theory
#73 - Anti Policy Lynch
#81 - Attacks on me and Gazglum, votes me. I think this is the main post people remember
#82 - Additional attack on me
#90 - Attack on novice
#96 - Defensive post
#111 - Defensive post
--------Lynch----------
#148 - Attacks CH voters (Q, Zak, Novice, MJW)
#151 - Attacks Novice

If I was wolfzak or wolfnovice then I would be worried that Serdoa, probably one of the more persuasive players we have in this game, may be going for me today.


One more thing is that while killing your attacker may be a wolf tactic, that can breadcrumb to you, hence killing the attacker of a villager, especially when one or both is a strong player, is very valid.

Which was pretty much agreed with, and placed Novice as a possible Serdoa killer


On Jowy, after the argument that Novice is using was brought up on day 2, you still had me as a village lean.

You claim that this post now looks worse now we know so much more. Can you explain exactly what we know more now that means we should pay more attention to we did previously on what Serdoa thought midway through day 1?

[Jkaen]

There are some other changes, but they were behind the scenes and mostly just rectified a game set-up decision that wasn't correctly balanced in the first place.

Now, scum lost a mislynch candidate but apparently got recompensed behind the scenes.

See Novice, that is not actually what Merovech has told us, he just said he fixed a game set up decision that wasn't balanced anyway in the first place.

Did you slip because you know that scum got some recompense?

[novice]

I am saying if people are going to use me voting for MJW as a scum tell, I see no good reason not to use it as a defense as well.

Personally I think its a weak tell on both of us, but if people are convinced it means something me voting for him, then maybe they think the same regarding you.

Well there's a difference between putting an early vote on MJW and seeing the wagon swing onto him in the final few hours and actually being the one swinging the wagon.

You are all assuming that the scum thought day 1 to keep MJW from going down. If I was scum I wouldn't touch that defense with a barge pole. You are asking for trouble defending somebody on day 1 who always run a high risk of getting lynched. plus day 1 swings all over the place anyway, why defend him as early as I did when there was always a good chance somebody would get bored and start a new train anyway.

It does look like I've attached too much significance to that incident. I do have a town feel from your posts and while your post defending MJW and voting Mattimeo looks bad, it also looks in character. I wanted to pressure you on it but I don't want today to be all about Jkaen.

unvote for now.

[novice]

There are some other changes, but they were behind the scenes and mostly just rectified a game set-up decision that wasn't correctly balanced in the first place.

Now, scum lost a mislynch candidate but apparently got recompensed behind the scenes.

See Novice, that is not actually what Merovech has told us, he just said he fixed a game set up decision that wasn't balanced anyway in the first place.

Did you slip because you know that scum got some recompense?

No, that's not why I slipped.
Have you stopped beating your wife?

The key word there is apparently.

[Jkaen]

So, I decided to go back and review Novice's posts about me before his attack game out of nowhere at the start of the day today.

I think a good place to start (note after Serdoa is dead) is here:

I agree with Jowy's take on who's scum, I think Q's analysis is overthinking things.

Town leans:
zakalwe, Jowy, novice - decisive votes on MJW
jkaen - voted MJW, and I already had a town lean from his posts
Qgqqqqq - MJW's strongest pursuer
Mattimeo - MJW's target and alternative lynch option

So that leaves Azza, Azarius and Gazglum. Out of these I don't think Azza comes across as especially scummy after rereading his posts as summarized by Q here.


He only mentions me twice since then before his atatck today, while mentioning suspicion about plenty of iother living players:

By the way I thought I remembered something about Serdoa and skimmed through his posts. His suspects on day one were MJW, Gazglum and JKaen. He argued pretty strongly for these three.

[quote='Serdoa' pid='409422' dateline='1377588498']MJW

[...] Gazglum is a wolf [...] Jkaen

On night one he criticized me, Zak and Q as well. He didn't seem to suspect Azarius.

I don't necessarily have anything to conclude from that but I may as well share my research findings.

That one he says absolutely nothing apart from saying that serdoa basically suspected everybody but Azarius

As far as Mattimeo, I don't think we can clear him based on him being MJW's target. As he said himself when he made the vote, he was the only target with more than one vote. I can't speak for everyone but I would certainly find it suspicious if, knowing that MJW was online, he didn't make a self defense vote onto the only other person with multiple votes on them.

When I say that Mattimeo was MJW's target I'm referring to MJW pushing for Mattimeo's lynch throughout the game. At the start of day two he said he couldn't take the game seriously until Mattimeo started posting crap. MJW's other target was Zak, by the way.

If Gazglum is scum, it would be needlessly risky for scum Jkaen to put his vote on MJW when Gazglum was under pressure. If Gazglum defends successfully you don't want the votes to move to your other scum buddy. So at the very least I don't see Jkaen as scum with Gaz.

And here he responds saying I am not scum with Gaz, but harly shows any real interest in me

Seems very odd to then drop all the other lines of interest and go after me today.

[novice]

Fixed the quotes for you Jkaen:

So, I decided to go back and review Novice's posts about me before his attack game out of nowhere at the start of the day today.

I think a good place to start (note after Serdoa is dead) is here:

I agree with Jowy's take on who's scum, I think Q's analysis is overthinking things.

Town leans:
zakalwe, Jowy, novice - decisive votes on MJW
jkaen - voted MJW, and I already had a town lean from his posts
Qgqqqqq - MJW's strongest pursuer
Mattimeo - MJW's target and alternative lynch option

So that leaves Azza, Azarius and Gazglum. Out of these I don't think Azza comes across as especially scummy after rereading his posts as summarized by Q here.

He only mentions me twice since then before his atatck today, while mentioning suspicion about plenty of iother living players:

By the way I thought I remembered something about Serdoa and skimmed through his posts. His suspects on day one were MJW, Gazglum and JKaen. He argued pretty strongly for these three.

MJW

[...] Gazglum is a wolf [...] Jkaen

On night one he criticized me, Zak and Q as well. He didn't seem to suspect Azarius.

I don't necessarily have anything to conclude from that but I may as well share my research findings.

That one he says absolutely nothing apart from saying that serdoa basically suspected everybody but Azarius

As far as Mattimeo, I don't think we can clear him based on him being MJW's target. As he said himself when he made the vote, he was the only target with more than one vote. I can't speak for everyone but I would certainly find it suspicious if, knowing that MJW was online, he didn't make a self defense vote onto the only other person with multiple votes on them.

When I say that Mattimeo was MJW's target I'm referring to MJW pushing for Mattimeo's lynch throughout the game. At the start of day two he said he couldn't take the game seriously until Mattimeo started posting crap. MJW's other target was Zak, by the way.

If Gazglum is scum, it would be needlessly risky for scum Jkaen to put his vote on MJW when Gazglum was under pressure. If Gazglum defends successfully you don't want the votes to move to your other scum buddy. So at the very least I don't see Jkaen as scum with Gaz.

And here he responds saying I am not scum with Gaz, but harly shows any real interest in me

Seems very odd to then drop all the other lines of interest and go after me today.

[Jkaen]

Thanks was just about to try myself

[Jkaen]

I assume the wife beating comment was because I came out fighting against the accusation?

If so it has been pointed out and proved that I tend to be an easy midgame mislynch candidate because I often just roll over as a villager and don't defend strongly. I am trying to stop doing that.

[Jowy]

Jkaen, I think that quote looks worse now because you dismissed Serdoa/MJW, which one was scum and the other died next night, and went after Matt who's looking very towny, and even a follow up on Gaz who we now know was town. That said, even though it looks bad, I don't really see it as a tell. Villagers can just as likely go after the wrong targets on Day 1, and in fact scum would know to avoid making themselves look too obvious when their posts are read days later. You are not one of my suspects Jkaen, though I have not re-read yet

[novice]

So, I decided to go back and review Novice's posts about me before his attack game out of nowhere at the start of the day today.

[..]

Seems very odd to then drop all the other lines of interest and go after me today.

I see how you get that impression, sorry for ambushing you. It does tend to get people talking though.