Realms Beyond Fantasy Football 2013-14 - Time to beat the Brit

[Cyneheard]

First off, as you probably saw, a trade happened.

scooter receives: Reggie Bush, Knowshon Moreno
David Corperial receives: Hakeen Nicks, Shane Vereen

So, mildly awkward mistake. I forgot to turn off the trade review period like we usually do. Are you guys okay with me turning that off? In previous years we've kept that off since it doesn't seem necessary when we all "know" each other.

Although we should be fine with just letting this one pass, because the only player in this trade that plays tonight (Moreno) was not going to get started by either of us I don't believe.

Fine with me.

[pindicator]

Wheelin' and dealin' already!

[wetbandit]

Vote for turning the review period off.

[Kuro]

Yes, turn off the review period.

[Kuro]

I'm shocked that ESPN projects me to win by that large a margin. A lot of this has to do with the fact that Ahmad Bradshaw is projected to have 12 points versus Matt Forte's 8. This is crazy. No one would, or should, play Bradshaw over Forte, given the choice. All of ESPN's published rankers have Bradshaw more or less 10 spots lower than Forte, if not more. I'm certain that this is unquestioned among all other touts.

I've always thought ESPN's fantasy projections were hokey. From what I understand, ESPN assigns an integer of touchdowns to a player as part of their projections. They will not project or assign partial touchdowns, as Yahoo does. I think there's more folly in a model that purports to project the exact statistical outcome of an NFL game. It seems, to me at least, that a probabilistic model is far more realistic or useful.

With ESPN's method applied, you get these goofy situations where their projection system assigns 60 yards and a touchdown to Bradshaw and only 80 yards to Forte. Yeah, that's a plausible outcome, and I'll take the other side every time.

This is not to say that you should convert to Yahoo or any other system. I'm sure everyone has their own method of determining how to set a lineup each week. Regardless, ESPN's method seems far more imprecise. My argument is obviously not supported by math, detailed analysis, or even practical considerations of constructing a projection system, so if anyone wants to show me how I'm wrong and has some support, I'll gladly eat some crow.

Take the points, Kuro!

I actually usually took the points before, but I didn't this week because some of the MUs were quite lopsided (Cyberams vs. Nitpickers most noticeably). It should also be noted that since I have to do them before Thursday games, they can tend to change before Sunday (For example Sir BRuce is only a +15 now, because he threw in Brent Celek and for some reason the Patriots D/ST is projected to score good).

[pindicator]

Decker, WTF

[sunrise089]

I know it's the NFL and moreover I know it's John Fox, but when you get the final first down and have 1st and 10 with 48 seconds to go, why not run 3x plays where you run 3 WRs on go routes, leave the TE and RB to block, and tell Manning to throw the ball away before taking contact. Yes there is some tiny chance he gets hurt, but there was the same or more chance for the previous 50 plays, and it's not every day you have a real chance, without any risk of altering the game outcome, to set the all-time touchdown record for a single game.

[Kuro]

Good game, Peyton was amazing. Really wish that they had gone for the all time TD record, but I can at least get it (Since the Wideouts could also get hurt).

My Cyberams prediction is already down the tubes, though. How could I foresee 46 Peyton Manning points? XD

[Bigger]

whose the cyberams? um, I think you won this week damn, Peyton

[pindicator]

Yeah, you gotta get Decker another chance to drop a pass at least