WW27 Game Thread: Once there were 12

[Jowy]

More convincing for you Q:

If Zak/Novice are not the scum, the village already lost the game.
They will vote together. They will not vote each other.
If only one of them is scum, then the other scum will join their vote at the last second to make it a 3v2 in favor of a villager being lynched.

They might change their ways if they think we've been convincing enough that you would vote for them. In that case I would expect them to sacrifice one today, in the hopes that the other will live tomorrow. But obviously the better option is to just win right now, which is exactly what they are doing.

Of course, if you believe that Zak/Novice are both villagers, and Jkaen/Me are scum, then I suppose you would have the option of lynching me and Jkaen.

[Qgqqqqq]

Qgq,

Yet another way of looking at things that may help:

If I am correct then we go:
Lynch Zakalwe
Kill Jkaen (or Jowy)
Lynch Novice

for the win.

If you are correct (Zak/Jowy pair) we go:
Lynch Jowy
Kill Jkaen
Lynch Qgq

and lose.

It seems very clear that the brothers are going to group vote together and suspect you and Jowy as a pair.

I still hope I can convince them that their case is stupid though, but you're right, zak is safest. We'll still have to have this same conversation tomorrow though, and seeing as I suspect you or I would die overnight I think we should work it out before day 5. If zaks village then we really are stuffed.

[Jkaen]

With Zak, even if Novice had no choice but to self defense vote (which I contest) why did zak have no option but to stay with Novice?

He could have built up a case against somebody such as Qgq who he claims to have prefered as a case. Why would zak just sit back rather than put a case together and try to persuade people to his cause. Thats not the villager zak that I know.

Finally in other games like this when zak has bought into Novice being a villager fairly heavily (again see WW14) he has expressed a bit more doubt about his brothers role. Here he seems shockingly one minded in his conviction that Novice is village, which having been fooled before I would have expected a bit more doubt

[Jkaen]

If zak is village, you are right we have lost.

If he is scum, then a lot depends on who gets killed in the night, since its clear where my vote will be going.

As for what we do tomorrow should one of us die, its clear that me dying favours Novice, and you dying favours Jowy with regards winning the vote the next day. The question is will the scum double bluff and kill the person who doesnt suspect them?

[Jkaen]

Merovech,

Can I request you make a call for PMs to you for making this a 24 hour day, and shorten it if you get 100% agreement. I am not convinced there will be all that much to say in the final 24 hours, and it will just be a case of waiting to see how zak turns.

[Jkaen]

Still gives the brohers some time to convince Qgq to change his vote back

[Jowy]

Q, you do realize that I could have just as well voted Mattimeo? I had them both down as equal level villagers at that point. If I was scum, it wasn't "hopeless" to save MJW, it would have been extremely easy. And if someone wanted to sacrifice MJW, like we now know the scum have done, they would have made sure to get the credit for it: exactly what novice has been doing, saying that it was all thanks to him that we lynched a scum.

We have now discussed this exact point at least 3 times
MJW seemed hopeless because it was very near the lynch, and you couldn't have known Gazglum was going to get up and vote matt. If you had taken it to a coinflip, then it would've looked very bad if it killed MJW. After he did get up, it would've looked very bad for you to swap in the last 10 minutes having only just swapped onto him.
I can even add to that now: if zak is your scumbuddy then he would've been telling you in QT to switch for points, and also that he had previously decided to bus MJW anyway. If Jkaen is your scumbuddy then you would've known he couldn't get on to change. If novice is your buddy, see zak.
That isn't a tell in your favor, you COULDN'T have voted matt just as easily.

If I was scum and wanted to try to save MJW, I would have waited until the last minute to make my vote. Scum would have no reason to make their vote 11min before the deadline rather than 1min before it when the other votes are already down. Well, there is a reason to vote earlier, it is if you are intentionally going to sacrifice MJW for villager credit, like what happened this game. But you said that you believed I tried to save MJW, which would mean it wasn't intentional. And I don't understand your point about Zak/Novice being my scum buddy.. Why would he only at this point tell me that he wants to sacrifice MJW? I've never played wolf, but when you have a quicktopic all for yourselves I would expect more teamwork than that.

[Jowy]

There isn't really any need to plan for tomorrow. If we get there, we kill the other of Zak/Novice. If only one of them was scum, we wouldn't get to that day. We would lose today, because the other scum would jump on the villager lynch at the last second and scum would win.

[Qgqqqqq]

Ok, another line.

Qgq. I think its clear that the behaviour of the brothers, especially zak, has been off this game.

Agreed.

My thought is because they are playing scum, hence also the struggle they are having in putting cases together on people, always much harder when you are scum.

I get this, but...zak and novice are quite possibly the players who have been scum the most of everyone at RB - and have done a sterling effort at it too. So that doesn't really ring true. I agree that zaks behaviour has been bad, and novices has been a bit weird, but I don't see novice struggling to find mislynchs amongst a low activity (azza, matt, ch) and generally mislynchable crowd.
I wonder if he's simply trying to reconcile low time with WW.
Why do you think the two (especially zak) would decide to be so blatant about having a relationship?

Also look at the reasons/reactions for the lynches from the brothers:

Day 1 - 'not our fault policy lynch.'
...
Day 4 - 'not our fault, self defense.'

Seems they have excuses generally nicely lined up for the mislynches they have led in order to try and shift the blame away.

I don't think days 1-3 have any tells there, I think novice was pretty blatant with the policy lynch (which I agreed with). Day 4 does seem weird though, especially for zak. I don't get how matt made the change from strongest suspicion to town too.

More convincing for you Q:

If Zak/Novice are not the scum, the village already lost the game.
They will vote together. They will not vote each other.

Where do you get that from? If neither are scum, then independent of us deciding to lynch zak, why would their consisting of a voting bloc doom the village? If they are both village and vote for the same target then they will likely hit a wolf, ergo we are not doomed.

If only one of them is scum, then the other scum will join their vote at the last second to make it a 3v2 in favor of a villager being lynched.

Not quite sure what you're saying here, but I agree that last minute swapping is a worry.

...

Totally agree.

[Jowy]

Q, I did mention in that post that if you believe Zak/Novice are both villagers, then you'd have the option of lynching Jkaen and Me. Point was that if only one of them is scum, then the village already lost. I'll explain again with an example scenario:

Zak and Novice vote Jowy (2 votes)
Jowy, Jkaen and Q vote Zak (3 votes)

If only one of the is scum, then you or Jkaen is the other scum, and will switch at last minute, making it 3-2 to lynch a villager.