WW27 Game Thread: Once there were 12

[zakalwe]

I'm still catching up, and won't have time to post more until later tonight. Nice move sending me from 0 to 3 votes and then immediately calling for the day to end before I get a chance to post again.

As a general rule, you can take it for granted that I don't want to end the day while I am in the lead.

[novice]

I'm not voting.

[novice]

Okay Q, in response to your earlier query, I'll try to reconstruct my process of elimination thoughts. This is freely from memory, without the game thread in front of me.

Mattimeo: Scummy behaviour, lurking, snarking, poorly founded voting. Reasons for not being scum: would require very heavy distancing from MJW, he was an alternative lynch to MJW on day 2, and he had a post on Jowy that ended up as townish when I analyzed it properly, even though he lied about the content of Jowy's day one posts.

JKaen: I hadn't seen much from Jkaen indicating scum, he defended well against the accusations related to the MJW miniwagon on day one so I've basically dismissed it as noise. So voting record seems fine and he's in perfect character. His continued insistence on lynching me is unfortunately not proof of scumminess, I can see how Jkaen can be overcompensating from being fooled by my double bussing in WW14. (Side note: Zak wasn't scum in that game so that game does nothing for demonstrating how we work as a scum duo. IIRC we've been scum together twice, but in one of those games we were opposing factions and in the other I was nailed by a seer on night one. I did some clumsy distancing towards Zak and he was lynched not long after. Brick and Waterbat carried the day with good help from a mini scum faction consisting of Selrahc and Bob.)

Zak: Well, here the question was/is rather what specifically he has done that is scummy. Yes he's been sheeping me ftw but I'm a sensible villager and I can't fault him for going with my lynch choices, I guess with the possible exception of Mattimeo. So the Zak and Q cases are actually pretty similar, but I always understand what Zak is doing/thinking due to us being so in tune with each other, whereas I sometimes have trouble following Q's posts. I guess it seemed more likely to me that I have missed something in Q's posts as opposed to Zak's posts. I find Q's day 5 posts coherent though. Also Q reminded me that he was the one who prompted me to reconsider MJW on day 2. And like I've argued already, I think MJW's lynch must have been improvised, which points to Jkaen, Zak and Jowy. I need to reread your post that prompted my MJW vote though, to see if it was a genuine push for MJW or an attempt to gradually ease your vote off him (that backfired horribly).

Jowy: I found his "I need to stop enabling this" comment on day two when Zak, Gaz and I were pressuring him very towny, for some reason. But that's actually all I can think of now. The scum tells on Jowy are all the cases of bad reasoning that he displays. I've been quite lenient on that, but that's silly. Intermittently Jowy shows that he's perfectly capable of intelligent posts too, so he's not stupid. And many of his posts are very reflected (like his"enabling" post). So I don't know that we should keep forgiving pushing cases based on bad logic just because of his moronic roleplay as Muriel.

So anyway, Q, you've convinced me that you're a bad lynch today. As for Zak, you've argued that his sheeping me is too obvious if we're both scum. Well, maybe it's too obvious if it's just him as scum too? OTOH both Jays as scum feels overly blatant, too. Of course, from the scumJays perspective they had a mandatory kill of Azarius, and were observing a villager voting block of Q, Zak and me. Their best bet would be to argue heavily for me and zak as scum, as that's always an alluring tale to spin, and hope to sway Q over to either of us.

So in summary I now feel like Q and Zak are village, but one of them as scum seems pretty likely too based on the prescribed amount of paranoia, and because the scumJays are so blatant. From my own perspective Jowy feels like the most scummy Jay, but that's also Zak and Qs favourites, so if there's only one Jay as scum it's probably Jkaen.

It looks like I can avoid the noose tonight by voting Zak, but I don't think he's the best lynch, and the Jays have promised to mislynch me tomorrow if he flips scum anyway, so if he's scum I need to lynch his partner first.

Ok so summary of the summary is that I vote Jowy if I think Zak and Q are town, and Jkaen if I think one of Zak and Q is scum.

Let's see what Zak says.

This post has been written over many hours, but at the time of posting I'm caught up to post 752.

[novice]

So, funny thing, I skimmed through day two and couldn't find any post from Q that triggered my vote on MJW. I mean, I had read Q's case earlier, but I think the trigger was actually this post by MJW, just for being generally inane.

Mattimeo, if you are busy you need to say WHY. The village just cannot accept a blanket excuse. That's what really took Selrahc in ww3, the villages only wolf kill.

Qgqqqqq, and others, after Zak the next person who are likely to be wolfs are the novice attackers. The night kill choice hints that one of the wolfs is probably novice or zak; wanting to shut up the biggest talker after them. It would be a bit silly if both Zak and novice were both wolfs.* And I don't see any problems in novices post. Jowy is the only vigorous attacker of novice and his murky style is not enough to dissway me. However, this logic is dependent on Zak being a wolf so I would rather kill him if possible.

Also, I can answer why people are ignoring me, Qgqqqq. They aren't, see Gaz's post. However, you only get one vote at a time and people like Mattimeo is an easier option for obvious reasons...

*novice has a 2/9 chance if zak is a wolf

Rereading day two was interesting though. Jkaen's early MJW vote was just a weak pressure vote, Q actually argued for MJW being scum.

I also found this nugget:

I don't think following novice is like the real Zak...

[zakalwe]

I wrote most of this post in parallel with Novice, and as usual I agree with much of what he said. Go figure. I don't agree that Azarius would be a mandatory kill from anyone's perspective, though.

Jowy says Azarius was killed because they feared his powers, which can't be right, as there's no way they would think he had another two shots. Q says it's because his claimed role practically confirmed him as town. These reasons are not very credible to me, because he was far from confirmed, and more importantly because scum don't care about killing confirmed townies at this stage. They don't even care about killing off their accusers, per se. The only thing they care about is to ensure that someone who is innocent attracts at least one vote from someone else who is innocent. Jkaen in particular has been extremely vocal that he thinks both Novice and I are scum. And both Jowy, Q, and Jkaen are currently voting in accordance with their predeclared preferences. So if Novice and I are scum, we killed the only player whose preferences were less clear, knowingly setting up this exact situation, where the only debate seems to be whether to lynch him or me. Azarius was someone with a legitimate chance both of attracting a vote (Jowy said he would be a sure lynch if he had remained alive) and of voting for someone other than us. In short, there is no way Novice and I would kill Azarius.

On the other hand, if Jowy and Q are scum, all they needed to do last night was kill Azarius, and let Jkaen carry the day with his extreme conviction. This scenario looks very likely to me. They are also the players that I independently see as scummiest, although it's a fairly close field. Jowy's arguments have been swinging between reasonable and deeply flawed, which seems to indicate that he is fundamentally capable of logical thinking, but deliberately fudges some of his conclusions. Q has been very vocal and all over reasonable, but seems to be harping on a bit much, in what may be a deliberate attempt to look active just for the sake of it. When Novice tried to trap Gazglum, Q jumped on it with a vengeance and kept nagging about it to the point that Gazglum eventually had to reprimand him for being tiresome. That says something, coming from Gazglum.

I guess it could also be Jkaen and Jowy, as that makes a lot of sense based on how the MJW wagon developed, and Q did push MJW very actively. So just based on day 2, Jkaen is probably a more likely partner for Jowy than Q. Still, I have a feeling that Jkaen is just being himself and suspecting me and Novice based on his natural bias, while Jowy is the scum who is playing off that. Jkaen/Q is also possible based on today's play, but I'm doubtful if both wolves would be parked on their partner so early on day 2. It's interesting that Jowy dismisses this possibility, though, despite insisting that the MJW bus could not be improvised.

Now, since I accuse Jkaen of having a natural bias I should probably also re-evaluate Novice, to compensate for my own. And yes, even if I try to put on my wolf-tinted glasses, I still feel pretty good about him being innocent. To me, his play matches his villager play, and he still has the best voting record. On that note, Jowy's insistence that the MJW wagon is now irrelevant is another piece of botched logic. Yes, we now know that both scum ended up voting for MJW. That does not mean we can or should completely ignore how the wagon actually developed. He's been talking about probabilities all game long, and arguing that the non-MJW voters should be lynched in this and that order. But now that this source of mislynches has been exhausted, the actual build-up of the MJW wagon, which certainly doesn't favor him, is suddenly inadmissible as evidence? That is inexcusably poor logic.

(Novice beat me to correcting Jkaen about WW14 so I cut that part of my post.)

[zakalwe]

I still hope I can convince them that their case is stupid though, but you're right, zak is safest. We'll still have to have this same conversation tomorrow though, and seeing as I suspect you or I would die overnight I think we should work it out before day 5. If zaks village then we really are stuffed.

I support a 24hr end, I don't think votes are gonna change.

So let's see... you want to convince me that my case on you is stupid, and you want to do it today, so you vote to lynch me and then say "end the day" before I've even posted?

[Jkaen]

You have both wrote a lot of text there for your responses, and I will Address it on detail tomorrow morning. One thing from both your essays I not clear on though. Who do you actually suspect?

[zakalwe]

I'm voting for Jowy and I think his most likely partner is Q. I thought that was clear.

[novice]

It's a close field for me as well, I'm leaning towards the Jays as scum. Jowy is the most scummy in isolation.

Q's stance on ending the day is indeed bizarre. If he is to be taken literally he thinks I won't be voting.

Zak makes a good point that an Azarius kill is unlikely if Zak is scum. I felt that I was the primary target for the Jays and that an Azarius kill was obvious, and didn't analyze it further.

Jowy

[Qgqqqqq]

I'm still catching up, and won't have time to post more until later tonight. Nice move sending me from 0 to 3 votes and then immediately calling for the day to end before I get a chance to post again.

As a general rule, you can take it for granted that I don't want to end the day while I am in the lead.

Looking back, asking for a shorter day was a stupid idea. Sorry about that
I only meant if there was 100% agreement though, I just didn't think Jkaen, Jowy or I were going to be moving our votes. I wasn't really thinking though.

Okay Q, in response to your earlier query, I'll try to reconstruct my process of elimination thoughts. This is freely from memory, without the game thread in front of me.

Thanks.

Jowy: I found his "I need to stop enabling this" comment on day two when Zak, Gaz and I were pressuring him very towny, for some reason. But that's actually all I can think of now. The scum tells on Jowy are all the cases of bad reasoning that he displays. I've been quite lenient on that, but that's silly. Intermittently Jowy shows that he's perfectly capable of intelligent posts too, so he's not stupid. And many of his posts are very reflected (like his"enabling" post). So I don't know that we should keep forgiving pushing cases based on bad logic just because of his moronic roleplay as Muriel.

What was the "enabling" post?
I agree on the rest though - in particular his conviction that he cast the deciding vote on MJW is bizarre given how much we've discussed it. Also, his immediate list of tells in the wake of the MJW lynch looks quite bad too, as it seems ready to setup a lynch cycle on Azarius/Gazglum (this is also done off memory, but I think he was very quick to clear the majority of the MJW wagon, and push those two).

So anyway, Q, you've convinced me that you're a bad lynch today. As for Zak, you've argued that his sheeping me is too obvious if we're both scum. Well, maybe it's too obvious if it's just him as scum too?

I can see it if just he's scum rather easily tbh, trying to avoid having to contribute too much, buddying up to a strong town player and potentially even setting you up for a mislynch later on. I agree its not what I'd expect, but it fits better with him as scum then him as town.

OTOH both Jays as scum feels overly blatant, too. Of course, from the scumJays perspective they had a mandatory kill of Azarius, and were observing a villager voting block of Q, Zak and me. Their best bet would be to argue heavily for me and zak as scum, as that's always an alluring tale to spin, and hope to sway Q over to either of us.

Do you feel they've been blatantly co ordinating earlier, or just today?

I don't agree that Azarius would be a mandatory kill from anyone's perspective, though.

Jowy says Azarius was killed because they feared his powers, which can't be right, as there's no way they would think he had another two shots. Q says it's because his claimed role practically confirmed him as town. These reasons are not very credible to me, because he was far from confirmed, and more importantly because scum don't care about killing confirmed townies at this stage.

I disagree. I could see a lynch swinging around to any one player today - novice goes without saying, Q the two of you had stated quite strongly that you wanted me, novice has been pushed hard, zak had been mentioned as secondary suspicions by a few, Jowy has been pushed a fair bit and Jkaen was pushed hard yesterday. Compared to that, Azarius was a paranoia moment from Jowy that he eventually concluded was likely town. You'd also mentioned him, but he was easily the least lynchable target - especially since several considered him confirmed town (whether he was in your eyes). So that's why I think he would be killed in the night no matter what - because he was very unlikely to be lynched, unlike everyone else.
As for specific pairings: a Jowy/Jkaen pair could only kill me or Azarius, given they were psuhing zak/novice. I presume they decided I would be easier to convince, or that they could compromise on me.
A Zak/novice pair are avoiding killing off their accusers because zak is known for that, and trying to setup a push on Jowy/leaving things open to swing a lynch on whomever takes their fancy.
A Jowy/Zak pair are wanting a big push on novice that zak can jump on at the end to take the win. Azarius was likely killed to eliminate someone no-one else would vote for, and to kill off someone who wouldn't be a hassle.
I take your point on pre-declared preferences, though

They don't even care about killing off their accusers, per se. The only thing they care about is to ensure that someone who is innocent attracts at least one vote from someone else who is innocent. Jkaen in particular has been extremely vocal that he thinks both Novice and I are scum. And both Jowy, Q, and Jkaen are currently voting in accordance with their predeclared preferences. So if Novice and I are scum, we killed the only player whose preferences were less clear, knowingly setting up this exact situation, where the only debate seems to be whether to lynch him or me. Azarius was someone with a legitimate chance both of attracting a vote (Jowy said he would be a sure lynch if he had remained alive) and of voting for someone other than us. In short, there is no way Novice and I would kill Azarius.

On the other hand, if Jowy and Q are scum, all they needed to do last night was kill Azarius, and let Jkaen carry the day with his extreme conviction. This scenario looks very likely to me. They are also the players that I independently see as scummiest, although it's a fairly close field. Jowy's arguments have been swinging between reasonable and deeply flawed, which seems to indicate that he is fundamentally capable of logical thinking, but deliberately fudges some of his conclusions. Q has been very vocal and all over reasonable, but seems to be harping on a bit much, in what may be a deliberate attempt to look active just for the sake of it. When Novice tried to trap Gazglum, Q jumped on it with a vengeance and kept nagging about it to the point that Gazglum eventually had to reprimand him for being tiresome. That says something, coming from Gazglum.

I agree on Jowy, but I don't get your point on harping on. I realise I'm not the most succinct player, but I'd definitely say my activity was worthwhile and helpful. I jumped on it because the change was nagging me, and that seeming shift of attitudes was what made me suspect him. When he had explained it, I couldn't see him as scum and argued for Jowy instead. Which brings me to my pont - why have I been so active pushing Jowy if he and I are a scum pair?
Even more along that line, why was I preparing to jump off my scumbuddy MJW onto scumbuddy Jowy night 2? Why wouldn't I instead be trying to push an alternative lynch, or at the least not posting saying he was my alternative and thus chucking our team from the frying pan and into the fire?

On that note, Jowy's insistence that the MJW wagon is now irrelevant is another piece of botched logic. Yes, we now know that both scum ended up voting for MJW. That does not mean we can or should completely ignore how the wagon actually developed. He's been talking about probabilities all game long, and arguing that the non-MJW voters should be lynched in this and that order. But now that this source of mislynches has been exhausted, the actual build-up of the MJW wagon, which certainly doesn't favor him, is suddenly inadmissible as evidence? That is inexcusably poor logic.

I agree with this.