WW27 Game Thread: Once there were 12

[Jowy]

Okay, that removed any small chance I had of not lynching Zak/Novice. The only alternative scenario I even considered was that one of Zak/Novice was scum with Q. It is clear that the brothers are still supporting each other and voting together, even at this stage of the game. If one of them really was a villager, he would be a fool for not realizing how blind he has been all game, having been completely played by the other. Zak/Novice is by far the best option for me. The two scummiest and the two most likely to be a scum duo. And now it is also the only option I have, because if one of them was a villager, it is clear he would never turn against the other and help the village win. And if the scum really are Q/Jkaen instead, well, good fucking job you two, you put on a hell of a show even on the last day.

[Jkaen]

Ok, lets go through the big defense post by Novice:

Okay Q, in response to your earlier query, I'll try to reconstruct my process of elimination thoughts. This is freely from memory, without the game thread in front of me.

If its taken all day I am suprised you didn't check your facts rather than do it from memory, I guess this is down tot he being busy defense

Mattimeo: Scummy behaviour, lurking, snarking, poorly founded voting. Reasons for not being scum: would require very heavy distancing from MJW, he was an alternative lynch to MJW on day 2, and he had a post on Jowy that ended up as townish when I analyzed it properly, even though he lied about the content of Jowy's day one posts.

Ok scummy behaviour is generic and says nothing. Lurking is true, but that is not really scummy, and its way to late in the day to policy lynch. As for poorly founded voting, pot meet kettle.

JKaen: I hadn't seen much from Jkaen indicating scum, he defended well against the accusations related to the MJW miniwagon on day one so I've basically dismissed it as noise. So voting record seems fine and he's in perfect character. His continued insistence on lynching me is unfortunately not proof of scumminess, I can see how Jkaen can be overcompensating from being fooled by my double bussing in WW14. (Side note: Zak wasn't scum in that game so that game does nothing for demonstrating how we work as a scum duo. IIRC we've been scum together twice, but in one of those games we were opposing factions and in the other I was nailed by a seer on night one. I did some clumsy distancing towards Zak and he was lynched not long after. Brick and Waterbat carried the day with good help from a mini scum faction consisting of Selrahc and Bob.)

Sidenote: not once have I suggested Zak was a wolf with you that game, just used it to show you would consider such actions, I didnt draw evidence to show zak would go along with it as it seemed none was needed.

Zak: Well, here the question was/is rather what specifically he has done that is scummy. Yes he's been sheeping me ftw but I'm a sensible villager and I can't fault him for going with my lynch choices, I guess with the possible exception of Mattimeo. So the Zak and Q cases are actually pretty similar, but I always understand what Zak is doing/thinking due to us being so in tune with each other, whereas I sometimes have trouble following Q's posts. I guess it seemed more likely to me that I have missed something in Q's posts as opposed to Zak's posts. I find Q's day 5 posts coherent though. Also Q reminded me that he was the one who prompted me to reconsider MJW on day 2. And like I've argued already, I think MJW's lynch must have been improvised, which points to Jkaen, Zak and Jowy. I need to reread your post that prompted my MJW vote though, to see if it was a genuine push for MJW or an attempt to gradually ease your vote off him (that backfired horribly).

No, disagree here, sheeping you so closely is scummy, regardless of how 'sensible' you deem yourself to be, Zak normally has a mind of his own.

Also if the cases are so similar when why was Qgq so near the top of your lynch list that you wanted to swap from him instead of Mattimeo, while zak was not even considered for one second?

Jowy: I found his "I need to stop enabling this" comment on day two when Zak, Gaz and I were pressuring him very towny, for some reason. But that's actually all I can think of now. The scum tells on Jowy are all the cases of bad reasoning that he displays. I've been quite lenient on that, but that's silly. Intermittently Jowy shows that he's perfectly capable of intelligent posts too, so he's not stupid. And many of his posts are very reflected (like his"enabling" post). So I don't know that we should keep forgiving pushing cases based on bad logic just because of his moronic roleplay as Muriel.

Lots of bad logic mentioned, bring up a previous game he played badly in (aparently I got lost as a lurker that game), but I would expect you to actually quote and show these examples.

So anyway, Q, you've convinced me that you're a bad lynch today. As for Zak, you've argued that his sheeping me is too obvious if we're both scum. Well, maybe it's too obvious if it's just him as scum too? OTOH both Jays as scum feels overly blatant, too.

I think its more likely that the only swing vote of the day is Qgq's so you need to harness it for the win

Of course, from the scumJays perspective they had a mandatory kill of Azarius, and were observing a villager voting block of Q, Zak and me. Their best bet would be to argue heavily for me and zak as scum, as that's always an alluring tale to spin, and hope to sway Q over to either of us.

Garbage, if the scum were the jays, why couldn't we have killed Qgq and tried to sway Azarius instead. I don't see how that would have been any easier or harder.

So in summary I now feel like Q and Zak are village, but one of them as scum seems pretty likely too based on the prescribed amount of paranoia, and because the scumJays are so blatant. From my own perspective Jowy feels like the most scummy Jay, but that's also Zak and Qs favourites, so if there's only one Jay as scum it's probably Jkaen.

So because Jowy is the most scummy (hence why he is the others favourites) I must be scum... that makes no sense.

It looks like I can avoid the noose tonight by voting Zak, but I don't think he's the best lynch, and the Jays have promised to mislynch me tomorrow if he flips scum anyway, so if he's scum I need to lynch his partner first.

No you don't if you are village you need to help lynch the scum. tomorrow you can then have a full review and try to convince me (or probably my ghost) of your innocence with less unknown variables about.

Ok so summary of the summary is that I vote Jowy if I think Zak and Q are town, and Jkaen if I think one of Zak and Q is scum.

Let's see what Zak says.

This post has been written over many hours, but at the time of posting I'm caught up to post 752.

Then based on who you thought was town why didnt you make a vote?

[Jkaen]

I also found this nugget:

I don't think following novice is like the real Zak...

If MJW had said the sky was blue would you now be doubting that.

Scum saying something that is clearly obvious doesnt make it untrue.

[Jkaen]

I wrote most of this post in parallel with Novice,

In the wolf QT?

and as usual I agree with much of what he said. Go figure. I don't agree that Azarius would be a mandatory kill from anyone's perspective, though.

Jowy says Azarius was killed because they feared his powers, which can't be right, as there's no way they would think he had another two shots. [/qoute]

I actually agree with zak here

[quote] Q says it's because his claimed role practically confirmed him as town. These reasons are not very credible to me, because he was far from confirmed, and more importantly because scum don't care about killing confirmed townies at this stage. They don't even care about killing off their accusers, per se. The only thing they care about is to ensure that someone who is innocent attracts at least one vote from someone else who is innocent. Jkaen in particular has been extremely vocal that he thinks both Novice and I are scum. And both Jowy, Q, and Jkaen are currently voting in accordance with their predeclared preferences.

Really at what point did Q predeclare he wanted to lynch you. He was all for Jowy yesterday, hence giving you your one swing vote you needed.

So if Novice and I are scum, we killed the only player whose preferences were less clear, knowingly setting up this exact situation, where the only debate seems to be whether to lynch him or me. Azarius was someone with a legitimate chance both of attracting a vote (Jowy said he would be a sure lynch if he had remained alive) and of voting for someone other than us. In short, there is no way Novice and I would kill Azarius.

Wrong, I just didn't think you expected Q's vote to swing, you gambled on which of the 2 you could control the vote of and got it wrong.

On the other hand, if Jowy and Q are scum, all they needed to do last night was kill Azarius, and let Jkaen carry the day with his extreme conviction. This scenario looks very likely to me. They are also the players that I independently see as scummiest, although it's a fairly close field. Jowy's arguments have been swinging between reasonable and deeply flawed, which seems to indicate that he is fundamentally capable of logical thinking, but deliberately fudges some of his conclusions. Q has been very vocal and all over reasonable, but seems to be harping on a bit much, in what may be a deliberate attempt to look active just for the sake of it. When Novice tried to trap Gazglum, Q jumped on it with a vengeance and kept nagging about it to the point that Gazglum eventually had to reprimand him for being tiresome. That says something, coming from Gazglum.

Again reference but not examples to Jowy's 'deeply flawed' thinking. I also don't really see the harping on angle.

I guess it could also be Jkaen and Jowy, as that makes a lot of sense based on how the MJW wagon developed, and Q did push MJW very actively. So just based on day 2, Jkaen is probably a more likely partner for Jowy than Q. Still, I have a feeling that Jkaen is just being himself and suspecting me and Novice based on his natural bias, while Jowy is the scum who is playing off that. Jkaen/Q is also possible based on today's play, but I'm doubtful if both wolves would be parked on their partner so early on day 2. It's interesting that Jowy dismisses this possibility, though, despite insisting that the MJW bus could not be improvised.

I didn't realise I had a natural bias against the 2 of you. Rowain and Lewwyn are the 2 I always find scummy.

Now, since I accuse Jkaen of having a natural bias I should probably also re-evaluate Novice, to compensate for my own. And yes, even if I try to put on my wolf-tinted glasses, I still feel pretty good about him being innocent. To me, his play matches his villager play, and he still has the best voting record.

No he doesn't. He voted MJW (as did we all) and the rest of his votes have been lynching villagers, where at least some of the rest of ours are votes on unknowns currently.

On that note, Jowy's insistence that the MJW wagon is now irrelevant is another piece of botched logic. Yes, we now know that both scum ended up voting for MJW. That does not mean we can or should completely ignore how the wagon actually developed. He's been talking about probabilities all game long, and arguing that the non-MJW voters should be lynched in this and that order. But now that this source of mislynches has been exhausted, the actual build-up of the MJW wagon, which certainly doesn't favor him, is suddenly inadmissible as evidence? That is inexcusably poor logic.

If he was pushing for non-MJW voters, then why was he on Novice yesterday? I know you brothers are riding the MJW lynch hard as evidence, but its just not as strong as you are trying to make out.

(Novice beat me to correcting Jkaen about WW14 so I cut that part of my post.)

No he didn't, I never stated the 2 of you were scum in WW14

[Jkaen]

I still hope I can convince them that their case is stupid though, but you're right, zak is safest. We'll still have to have this same conversation tomorrow though, and seeing as I suspect you or I would die overnight I think we should work it out before day 5. If zaks village then we really are stuffed.

I support a 24hr end, I don't think votes are gonna change.

So let's see... you want to convince me that my case on you is stupid, and you want to do it today, so you vote to lynch me and then say "end the day" before I've even posted?

No, we said end the day on 24 hours, which at that point we were what 9 hours into the day? certainly less than 12. Plenty of time for you to post.

[Jkaen]

so....

The votes have ended up where everybody knew the votes would end up.

Unless Zak or Novice have some new argument to bring I am not really sure what we have to discuss today.

[zakalwe]

I only meant if there was 100% agreement though, I just didn't think Jkaen, Jowy or I were going to be moving our votes. I wasn't really thinking though.

As far as I can tell, your reasoning for voting for me was that Novice and I would autolynch you tomorrow anyway? Or something like that... it looks backwards to me. Besides, you were just going off how Jowy asserted we would vote, without actually waiting to see what either of us said. If you help us lynch scum today, I will obviously reevaluate before the next lynch. I imagine Novice will say the same thing. If you think Jowy and I are scum, but rank him as more likely scum than me, you should be voting for Jowy, and work to persuade Novice tomorrow, if Jowy flips scum.

As a side note, predeclaring your voting preferences and setting them in stone, like Jkaen and Jowy have been doing (and continue to do), is extremely poor strategy for town, as it just makes the job of navigating the endgame that much easier for scum. I would expect Jowy in particular to realize this, who has shown a very firm grasp of mafia theory and strategy in the past (despite his limited experience).

Do you feel they've been blatantly co ordinating earlier, or just today?

This is a very leading question, but point taken nonetheless.

I agree on Jowy, but I don't get your point on harping on. I realise I'm not the most succinct player, but I'd definitely say my activity was worthwhile and helpful. I jumped on it because the change was nagging me, and that seeming shift of attitudes was what made me suspect him. When he had explained it, I couldn't see him as scum and argued for Jowy instead. Which brings me to my pont - why have I been so active pushing Jowy if he and I are a scum pair?
Even more along that line, why was I preparing to jump off my scumbuddy MJW onto scumbuddy Jowy night 2? Why wouldn't I instead be trying to push an alternative lynch, or at the least not posting saying he was my alternative and thus chucking our team from the frying pan and into the fire?

If you're scum, you already spent much of the early game distancing yourself very actively from MJW. So I don't think it's a big leap to suspect that you also distanced yourself from the other scum. I don't really have a good answer for the way you said you were going to switching from MJW to Jowy, beyond speculating that it was an attempt to set up future retorts along this exact line. When the shit is about to hit the fan, wolves see it coming a bit sooner than the others, and tend to dive for cover. But I guess your Jowy suspicions weren't completely out of the blue either, so IDK. Like I said before, based on day 2 alone, Jkaen/Jowy does look like a more likely pairing.

No, we said end the day on 24 hours, which at that point we were what 9 hours into the day? certainly less than 12. Plenty of time for you to post.

Plenty of time, perhaps, but he didn't wait for me to post. The fact is, that three of the players were content to end the day before the other two had even posted anything. If you're innocent, you should take a step back and ask yourself what that means. And while you're at it, you should ask yourself why you are still alive.

[Jkaen]

Plenty of time, perhaps, but he didn't wait for me to post. The fact is, that three of the players were content to end the day before the other two had even posted anything. If you're innocent, you should take a step back and ask yourself what that means. And while you're at it, you should ask yourself why you are still alive.

Why wouldn't I be?

I am seen as a pretty weak player, and generally don't do very well getting my arguments over. I believe the 2 of you have me listed as misguided villager for a while now.

Killing me last night would have been far too risky, as the question would have been asked of Novice was it to kill somebody who was obviously after him.

As for killing me earlier in the game, why on earth would you bother?

[Jkaen]

Also, to flip your question around, since according to you, Novice

still has the best voting record

Then why isn't he dead? If its due to the heat from me, then why aren't you dead? I have hardly mentioned you all game.

[zakalwe]

Apparently, the wolves already tried to kill Novice on night 2, if he is innocent. After that, they had a reason to keep him alive, since him being jailed leaves some ambiguity that they can later use against him.

Night 1 was Serdoa. Night 3 was Gazglum, but they didn't choose that kill. If you are innocent, killing me or Novice on night 4 would be insane, given your stance on us. So that leaves the question of why they killed Azarius on night 4, and not you or Jowy or Q.