WW27 Game Thread: Once there were 12

[Jkaen]

Well I don't understand how you can have no doubt, JKaen. You and Jowy are even forcing me to just assume that Zak is innocent since you've already locked on to me as scum with Zak.

I suggest you take 8 hours off, reflect, and then reconsider what's happening in this game.

Q, if you're innocent you should vote Jowy, and tomorrow we'll reevaluate everyone.

That is garbage, you have been assuming zak is innocent all game

[Jkaen]

I'm not sure what I'm going to vote, and I'm going to be posting more soon, but as a premise, no vote

Ok, I will await your posts

[novice]

Well I don't understand how you can have no doubt, JKaen. You and Jowy are even forcing me to just assume that Zak is innocent since you've already locked on to me as scum with Zak.

I suggest you take 8 hours off, reflect, and then reconsider what's happening in this game.

Q, if you're innocent you should vote Jowy, and tomorrow we'll reevaluate everyone.

That is garbage, you have been assuming zak is innocent all game

I haven't, but at any rate the point is your conviction on me is not allowing me to reconsider.

[novice]

JKaen, look at Jowy's reaction to our essays. He doesn't respond to any of it, just locks in his vote since we failed to vote for each other. He wants to close down discussion.

Requoted for emphasis.

[Jkaen]

I see, so its not your fault you are having to vote Jowy, just like its not your vote you had to vote Mattimeo.

[Jkaen]

JKaen, look at Jowy's reaction to our essays. He doesn't respond to any of it, just locks in his vote since we failed to vote for each other. He wants to close down discussion.

Requoted for emphasis.

So Jowy isn't doing all the villager grunt work that I am doing right now. As I stated a bit back I was of the opinion I was wasting my time doing it anyway as I felt Q was locked in too, I just had some spare time in the office.

[Jkaen]

Also note its me locking onto 2 candidates at this point which may save the game for the village. My prefered lynch is actually you, but for stating the pair I feel confident are scum and letting Q lead the vote onto which one he feels happiest about actually gives us a chance to lynch you guys.

[Qgqqqqq]

I only meant if there was 100% agreement though, I just didn't think Jkaen, Jowy or I were going to be moving our votes. I wasn't really thinking though.

As far as I can tell, your reasoning for voting for me was that Novice and I would autolynch you tomorrow anyway? Or something like that... it looks backwards to me. Besides, you were just going off how Jowy asserted we would vote, without actually waiting to see what either of us said. If you help us lynch scum today, I will obviously reevaluate before the next lynch. I imagine Novice will say the same thing. If you think Jowy and I are scum, but rank him as more likely scum than me, you should be voting for Jowy, and work to persuade Novice tomorrow, if Jowy flips scum.

The fact that you both placed me as high priority to lynch, without giving any clear (at least to my mind) or good reasons for it made me think that you would definitely lynch me tomorrow. And what you did say is that you had me as highest lynch target. I do rank him as more likely scum then you, but I think your play the past day has been worse...

As a side note, predeclaring your voting preferences and setting them in stone, like Jkaen and Jowy have been doing (and continue to do), is extremely poor strategy for town, as it just makes the job of navigating the endgame that much easier for scum. I would expect Jowy in particular to realize this, who has shown a very firm grasp of mafia theory and strategy in the past (despite his limited experience).

I disagree 100% with this - are you talking about the same Jowy who thought mafia theory was to all change posting styles from game to game so no meta would be developed, or the Jowy who thought a doublevoter role was sufficient to stave off a lynch? Heck, you've been criticizing his posts for having a lack of understanding all game. Z
[I don't mean any offence to you Jowy with this, we definitely all make mistakes, I just don't understand zaks conclusion]

Do you feel they've been blatantly co ordinating earlier, or just today?

This is a very leading question, but point taken nonetheless.

I suppose it's a bit of a leading question, but I wanted to hear your thoughts on how they'd interacted earlier.

If you're scum, you already spent much of the early game distancing yourself very actively from MJW. So I don't think it's a big leap to suspect that you also distanced yourself from the other scum. I don't really have a good answer for the way you said you were going to switching from MJW to Jowy, beyond speculating that it was an attempt to set up future retorts along this exact line. When the shit is about to hit the fan, wolves see it coming a bit sooner than the others, and tend to dive for cover. But I guess your Jowy suspicions weren't completely out of the blue either, so IDK. Like I said before, based on day 2 alone, Jkaen/Jowy does look like a more likely pairing.

Lets look at it a different way - what tells do you have that connect Jowy and I? Is there anything that makes you suspicious of us as a pairing, apart from extreme distancing, which I don't see as a point in favor, just a dismissal of a point against. Z

I thought we covered this.

As you said wolves just need the one vote they can use at this point. For you two that had to be a case of either Qgq or Azarius, I believe you decided you could sway Qgq to your vote.

After that the decision is which kill will assist Qgq in still believing the 2 of you are innocent.

Can't kill Jowy as thats who you were hoping to set up, so has to be me or Azarius. I guess the thought was that if I died then maybe Qgq would think Novice/you did it to eliminate my vote against you today, and that the azarius kill was less likely to scare his vote from your voting block

Then why were they both attacking me over the night, when no one else considered me a possible scum? J

Yes, we've been over it, and like I said, we could also have used Jowy's vote to lynch Azarius.

Killing you would have been the obvious path to victory if your theory was true, as you're the only one who definitely wasn't willing to lynch anyone else.

But Azarius was confirmed town for novice yesterday (IIRC), how would he have changed? Z

As I detailed above all you needed was Q's vote, you then need to work out who to kill in order to secure that vote. Everybody elses vote then is meaningless.

The more "outs" the better, obviously. Ideally, every villager should have someone to suspect that is also a villager. Killing you would ensure that, and keeping you around would just ensure that there's one player who cannot be swayed (as you're eager to demonstrate). That would also be very dangerous for us, because the other villagers could decide that they trust you to be innocent, and therefore feel compelled to vote with you.

OTOH, everyone could've voted with confirmed villager Azarius...which you dismissed as a reason to kill him earlier.Z
OTOOH, if Jkaen was killed you wouldn't have any trouble convincing me...J



Having finished that, I'm still not sure, but Jowy seems a bit worse, as the two of you worked to buddy me early while they were still scumhunting me (if stupidly). I tend to think that they would be trying to buddy up more if they needed my vote (and you two weren't moving), whilst you tried to work with me ASAP, which seems more co ordinated. I think Jowy/zak is getting less likely, as you are doing some ferocious distancing if so, I tend to think scum would try to co-ordinate more to take the win today.
So Jowy.
It also won't put me in this position tomorrow, one way or the other, and I could not take another day of this.

[Jkaen]

I went after your vote early today as it was obvious how the other 4 votes were going to fall. The key to this whole day is your vote.

Allowing you to persuade them you are innocent can play to your ego. Which I know is a tactic that has worked against me before.

Am I correct in thinking that if jowy is scum then you think his partner must be me?

[Qgqqqqq]

I write this before reading the thread, but with the time I take I'm sure someone will ask it by the end.
Why I moved off/even considered moving off zak when I'd been so certain earlier. Basically it comes down to my idea of scum pairings. Previously I'd thought maybe Jowy/Zak, but with the situation being setup where each of them pushes the other as the candidate that doesn't seem possible. Moreover, we are polarized on that issue, and I think wolves would be trying to work together. Thus that leaves only Jowy/Jkaen or Novice/Zak, with any others being ridiculous. So I can't just vote for zak as a midway candidate who is likely to be scum no matter what, I have to look at pairings, and zak/novice feel more towney then Jkaen/Jowy.
Moreover, there's the point about co ordination, while zak has been sheeping all game, Jowy and Jkaen jumped out together and seemed to be working in tandem last night, while novice and zak weren't really working together - for example novice dropped his suspicion of me while Zak is still pursuing it. You also seemed to act more strategically in trying to win me around, while they drived at me even though it was unlikely to get support.
Then again, novice has floated around a bit, which I'd expect more from scum then the relentless attack you guys had. Otoh, novice has played it more placidly, despite being up for lynch, and seemed more willing to just jump on whoever to save his own neck.
Otooh, I just can't see zak posting this way as a scum pair, and then not communicating on the day when it matters.